The NASCAR playoffs are almost upon us, with one last tune-up as today's Cook Out Southern 500 odds play out.
Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin are still in a staredown atop the NASCAR Cup Series odds, and likewise find themselves atop this week's odds board for Darlington's regular-season finale.
With drivers both seeking that last-minute win to sneak into the playoffs and jockeying for position, let's dive into this week's NASCAR odds and Cook Out Southern 500 betting picks for September 1.
Odds to win 2024 Cook Out Southern 500
| Driver |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +450 | +500 |
| Tyler Reddick | +650 | +550 |
| Ryan Blaney | +750 | +750 |
| Denny Hamlin | +750 | +650 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +900 | +1,000 |
| William Byron | +1,100 | +800 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1,100 | +1,000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +1,200 | +1,400 |
| Christopher Bell | +1,600 | +1,600 |
| Kyle Busch | +1,800 | +2,200 |
| Josh Berry | +1,800 | +2,500 |
| Chris Buescher | +1,800 | +2,500 |
| Chase Elliott | +1,800 | +2,000 |
| Ty Gibbs | +2,200 | +1,600 |
| Ross Chastain | +2,500 | +2,800 |
| Joey Logano | +2,800 | +2,500 |
| Erik Jones | +3,000 | +4,100 |
| Alex Bowman | +3,000 | +5,000 |
| Carson Hocevar | +3,000 | +4,100 |
| Austin Cindric | +4,000 | +6,500 |
Odds as of 9-1.
Cook Out Southern 500 field
The odds for this regular-season finale opened with much more variance than you'll typically see between sportsbooks, so be extra sure you're shopping around for the best price on Cook Out Southern 500 odds.
Among the favorites is four-time Darlington winner Denny Hamlin, who has slipped to eighth in the overall points standings and will look to gain some momentum heading into the playoffs after a disappointing 38th at Daytona.
Joining him is Kyle Larson, who won this race last year and has a NASCAR-best four wins on the current campaign. Currently second in points this season, Larson could snare playoff pole position from the other driver sitting as a favorite this week:
Tyler Reddick succumbed to Daytona's variance for a 28th-place finish last week, but he won at Michigan the week before that, capping a stretch of 10 Top-8 finishes in 12 races. He also has Top-3 finishes in three of his last five Darlington starts.
The general distribution of the Cook Out Southern 500 field is fairly linear and top-heavy, with playoff bubble boys like Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, and Kyle Busch available for a flyer in the +2,500 range.
Cook Out Southern 500 expert picks and predictions
Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 8-27.
Cook Out Southern 500 pre-qualifying favorites
Kyle Larson (+550)
He erased finishes of 36th, 12th and 20th to win last year’s Southern 500. Larson also had three straight runner-up finishes here prior to that three-race bad stretch, and two third-place finishes in a three-race span prior to that. He led 45 laps in the 2016 Southern 500, 124 in 2017, 284 in 2018, 44 in 2019, 156 in 2021, and 30 in 2022. This spring, Larson started 34th but climbed to the lead to earn a stage victory in the opening stage. He finished fifth in the second stage, but a crash relegated him to 34th.
Denny Hamlin (+550)
He led 177 laps and swept both stages in last year’s Southern 500. An issue relegated him to 25th. Hamlin rebounded to finish fourth in the spring race for his fourth Top-5 finish — including a pair of Top-2s — since 2021. He’s a four-time Darlington winner and has four runner-ups there, as well as 17 overall Top-10 finishes in 24 starts with 979 laps led. Needing a win to nab playoff points back following his penalty, Darlington is a great place for Hamlin to deliver that.
William Byron (+900)
Byron has six Top-8 finishes in his last eight Darlington tries, with four of those six in the Top-5. He was fourth in last year’s Southern 500 and sixth in the spring race.
Brad Keselowski (+900)
Keselowski has five Top-7 finishes in his last six tries, including results of fourth and sixth a year ago and a spring race victory after leading for 37 laps.
Cook Out Southern 500 sleepers
Chris Buescher (+1,600)
A great driver to manage tires. Buescher has four Top-10 finishes in his last seven Darlington tries including a third-place finish last September. If not for late-race contact with Tyler Reddick while battling for the lead in the spring race, Buescher, not Keselowski, would have won.
Chase Elliott (+1,800)
He’s 0-for-15 at Darlington but has three Top-8 finishes in his last five, including being third and eighth, respectively, a year ago. With Hendrick Motorsports winning both races last season from two different drivers, Elliott is up... He finished 12th in the spring.
Bubba Wallace (+2,500)
He’s vastly improved at Darlington. Wallace went from no Top-15 finishes in eight starts to being ninth, fifth, seventh, and seventh again, respectively, in his last four.
Cook Out Southern 500 fades
Christopher Bell (+1,200)
He’s had three Top-3 starting spots in the last five Darlington tries. Bell has led 43 combined laps and has a best finish of fifth in this span. Last year, he finished 14th and 23rd, respectively. He was 13th this spring.
Joey Logano (+1,600)
Great in 2022 with finishes of first and fourth. Last year? 18th and 12th with no laps led. This spring he finished 21st, again without any laps led.
Ryan Blaney (+1,600)
Not a strong suit for him. Just two Top-10 finishes in 14 tries. While he was ninth in both races a year ago, I’d fade him. He finished last this spring.
Ross Chastain (+2,200)
He leads a lot of laps at Darlington but also has a lot of crashes too. 26 laps led but a crash (30th place) in 2022. 20th in the 2022 Southern 500 and 93 laps led and a crash while battling for the win in the 2023 spring race again as well (29th). That’s why, despite being fifth in last year’s Southern 500, I’d fade. He finished 11th in the spring race this season.
Cook Out Southern 500 prop pick
Tyler Reddick Top-3 Finish
This track was made for Reddick (+550 outright); running the high line right up against the wall. Reddick has three Top-3 finishes in his last five tries including leading 90 laps in last year’s Southern 500 and finishing runner-up. He had a Top-2 car in the spring race but contact with Buescher while battling for the win kept him out of victory lane. With trying to protect points to secure the regular-season championship, I think Reddick as a Top-3 finisher is a safer play than an outright win.
Pick: Tyler Reddick Top-3 finish (+160 at DraftKings)
Popular motor sports futures odds
Darlington Raceway track analysis
Darlington is an older surface where you have to tip-toe around the track rather than go all out every lap. While I get these types of races aren’t for everybody, this is what makes racing fun.
There’s a reason why veterans win this race on a nuanced and seasoned track; six of the last 10 here were won by drivers in their 40s. Last year witnessed William Byron and Kyle Larson win. While they’re both on the younger end of the scale, Larson is in his 30s and has been racing for a decade in Cup. Byron is already in his sixth season. Keselowski, the spring race winner, is 40.
Cautions are typically limited and teams have to try out different strategies which is why managing tire wear is crucial. This isn’t the typical new-school race where drivers are all bunched up in the end and can just plow over cars to get by. It’s going to be spread out and technical.
That sets up varying strategies on when to pit. Fresh tires can gain a ton of ground and speed on those going around the track on old sets of Goodyears. However, eventually, the new tires fade and those on old tires will pit for new and gain the advantage. Whoever can work this game the best usually wins, and usually it’s a veteran who manages his tires over the run to limit the fall off.
Cook Out Southern 500 trends
- Five of the last seven Darlington race winners started in the Top 5, after just twice in the previous 17. The pole-sitter has won just twice since the 1997 Southern 500 (40 races).
- Every race winner at Darlington during the stage era has scored stage points. What’s odd is that the race winner at Darlington has never won a stage, either.
- Ford recently ended Chevrolet’s streak of three consecutive Darlington race victories. Those three wins are Chevy’s only wins at the track since 2015. Ford has won twice recently, both in the last three spring races. Toyota swept the pair of 2021 races.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Previous Cook Out Southern 500 winners
Several former winners line the top of this year's odds board, including former two-time champ Denny Hamlin.
| Year | Winner |
| 2023 | Kyle Larson |
| 2022 | Erik Jones |
| 2021 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2020 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2019 | Erik Jones |
| 2018 | Brad Keselowski |
| 2017 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2016 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 2015 | Carl Edwards |
| 2014 | Kevin Harvick |
How to make Cook Out Southern 500 picks
NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets.
