Over bettors had to like what they saw through the first two innings of Friday's showdown between the Yankees and Red Sox. Unfortunately, there wasn't much else to celebrate the rest of the way.
New York and Boston hitters victimized each team's respective starters for three runs in the first two frames of Friday's series opener at Fenway Park, but managed just two runs – both from the Red Sox – the rest of the way in a 5-3 victory that came up a few runs short of the 10.5-run total. With a similar total for Saturday's rematch, will Over bettors take the plunge yet again?
Here are our Yankees vs. Red Sox picks and predictions for Saturday, June 26.
Yankees vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Saturday, June 26, 2021
• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• TV: YES, NESN
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThis moneyline has done a little up-and-down at TwinSpires Sportsbook, where Boston opened -118, fell a few cents to -113 and rebounded to -127, where the price stands at 4:30 p.m. ET. The Yankees are landing 55 percent of bets and the Red Sox 60 percent of cash. The total moved from 10 to 10.5 and back to 10, with tickets and money in the 3/1 range on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameYankees vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jordan Montgomery (3-1, 4.03 ERA): Montgomery bounced back from consecutive shaky outings with a gem against Oakland last Sunday, allowing one run on three hits over 5 1/3 solid innings. The Yankees are 8-1 in Montgomery's previous nine starts overall, in part due to Montgomery having kept the ball in the park (four HRs allowed in his past nine starts).
Nathan Eovaldi (7-4, 3.90 ERA): He's prone to an occasional blow-up, but Eovaldi has been mostly sensational so far in 2021. Two-thirds of the 36 runs he has allowed this season have come in just five starts, while the hard-throwing righty has surrendered just 12 total runs in the other 10 appearances. He held New York to one run over six innings in a June 5 victory.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Yankees: OF Aaron Hicks (Out)
Red Sox: 3B Christian Arroyo (Out)
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Boston has won five straight head-to-head meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox.
Moneyline pick
The Red Sox have taken charge in the recent head-to-head series with the rival Yankees – and there are two compelling reasons to like the home team to extend that streak Saturday night.
The first is Eovaldi, who has been positively electric this season (with a few exceptions). He looked dominant in his previous encounter with the Yankees and has been masterful at keeping the ball in the park, yielding just three home runs over 83-plus innings in 2021. Opponents have a minuscule .261 OBA against him, and he's 3-1 with a 2.52 ERA in night games this season.
The other reason to like the BoSox? That bullpen. Boston's relievers have kept the team in the hunt for top spot in the American League East, going a ridiculous 10-1 in June with seven saves and a 3.38 ERA that ranks sixth in the majors over that span. Their 81.5-percent strand rate for the month is sure to come down at some point, but there's little debate that this bullpen is on fire.
There's always a chance that Eovaldi has a meltdown, but he has been one of the top starters in baseball when he's on – and the Yankees have already seen that version of him this season. We like him to hold it together on Saturday.
PREDICTION: Boston (-115)
Over/Under pick
Friday's series opener taught bettors plenty about where these teams are, both at the plate and on the mound. Specifically, we can see that both teams boast elite bullpens that are capable of shutting down even the hottest offenses.
We've already gone over Boston's recent bullpen success, but we can't discount what the Yankees have been doing all season long. New York relievers have accumulated a league-best 3.9 WAR in 2021 while ranking fourth in ERA (3.18), seventh in BB/9 (3.28), eighth in HR/9 (0.95) and ninth in strand rate (73.4 percent).
Don't be surprised to see a similar outcome to Friday, where the teams do the majority of their damage against the starters before being largely silenced by both sides' armada of relievers. And that makes the Under the superior option.
PREDICTION: Under 10.5 (-110)
Yankees vs Red Sox betting card
- Boston (-115)
- Under 10.5 (-110)
Picks made on 6/26/2021 at 9:45 a.m. ET
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