Tigers vs Red Sox Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

Kenta Maeda should be much more productive in his second start back from the IL for the Detroit Tigers as he takes on a free-swinging Boston Red Sox lineup, per our MLB betting picks.

Jon Metler - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Jon Metler ? Betting Analyst
May 31, 2024 ? 11:21 ET ? 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

Latest MLB Picks
Detroit Tigers Kenta Maeda MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Riley Greene and the Detroit Tigers will be at Fenway Park on Friday to take on Rafael Devers and the Boston Red Sox, and we have searched through the MLB odds to find you our best bets for this matchup.

Jack Flaherty tossed a gem in the opening game of this series between the Detroit Tigers and the Boston Red Sox, striking out nine batters in 6 2/3 scoreless innings. With Kenta Maeda toeing the rubber in the second game of this four-game set, we're betting on another Tigers pitcher striking out some Red Sox batters on Friday.

Find out why in my free MLB picks and Tigers vs. Red Sox predictions on Friday, May 31.

Tigers vs Red Sox prediction

My best bet
Kenta Maeda Over 4.5 strikeouts (+125 at DraftKings)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis
Rewind to the beginning of April, and we saw Kenta Maeda's strikeouts prop trading at 5.5 and even as high as 6.5. However, following a stint on the injured list and an outing where he only recorded one strikeout against Toronto in his return, his prop is now trading at 4.5 at plus money (+125) for Friday. I think this opens the door to an Over bet on the Detroit Tigers' right-hander.

Maeda will make his second start since returning from the 15-day injured list, which cost him a couple of starts due to a viral illness. Maeda had been struggling on the mound for the Tigers prior to landing on the injured list with a 5.80 ERA on the season, but he tossed five shutout innings in his return against the Blue Jays.

While it was a solid outing from Maeda, the one strikeout stands out when we're talking about betting on the Over 4.5. However, these are two very different lineups Maeda will be facing when it comes to a strikeout prop.

Pick your timeframe; it doesn't really matter. When you look at the team stats for strikeout percentage, the Boston Red Sox are consistently in the Top 5 of MLB, while the Blue Jays are in the Bottom 5. For example, over the last 30 days, the Red Sox's lineup has a strikeout percentage of 25.5%, and the Blue Jays' lineup has a strikeout percentage of 17.7%.

So, a total of 4.5 strikeouts for Maeda looks much more achievable against the Red Sox than it did against the Blue Jays. I also like that this will be his second start since coming off the injured list. In his return, he threw 74 pitches, and Maeda's season high is 88 pitches. There's no reason to believe he can't reach that number on Friday, especially since his time on the IL was due to an illness and not an injury that might limit his pitch count.

According to Covers prop projections, Maeda is projected to toss five strikeouts against the Red Sox. This projection allows us to price the Over 4.5 strikeouts at -125, but it is available at DraftKings at +125. This +125 is also a rogue price in the market that you will want to take advantage of, as some sportsbooks are trading the Over at minus money.

Tigers vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)

Kenta Maeda Over 4.5 strikeouts

Matt Vierling Over 1.5 total bases

Rafael Devers Over 0.5 home runs

I was at the doubleheader on Wednesday between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park, and I don't think anyone is having better at-bats in the Tigers lineup at the moment than Matt Vierling. Over his last five games, Vierling is batting .450 with a wRC+ of 323. He's tearing the cover off the ball right now and doing so with power, which is why I'm targeting the Over on his total bases.

A Rafael Devers home run prop might seem counterproductive to Maeda going Over 4.5 strikeouts, but in reality, a home run doesn't really hurt the pitch count. It's the long, dragged-out at-bats or innings with several baserunners that kill a strikeout prop, not a quick dinger and run around the bases for Devers.

After hitting a home run in six straight games in the middle of May, Devers hasn't hit one in nine games, but this wouldn't be the first time he has taken Maeda deep if he catches a barrel on Friday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Tigers vs Red Sox odds

Tigers vs Red Sox live odds

Tigers vs Red Sox opening odds

  • Run line: Detroit +1.5 | Boston -1.5
  • Moneyline: Detroit +134 | Boston -158
  • Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Tigers vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis

  • The Red Sox opened as a -155 favorite on the moneyline against the Tigers, and we have seen that line move to make the Red Sox a -170 favorite.
  • The total opened at 8.5 at FanDuel at even money, and we have seen the juice on the Under move to -110.
  • While FanDuel has adjusted the juice on the Under 8.5, we have seen some sportsbooks drop this total to 8.
  • If you're betting on the total for Friday's game, make sure to shop around because we are seeing a mix of 8 and 8.5 in the market.

Tigers vs Red Sox trend

The Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+8.00 Units / 58% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Red Sox

Tigers vs Red Sox game info

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date: Friday, 5-31-2024
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: Apple TV+
Tigers starting pitcher: Kenta Maeda
(2-1, 5.80 ERA)
Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck
(4-5, 1.90 ERA)

Tigers vs Red Sox latest injuries

Tigers vs Red Sox weather

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site
.

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Betting Analyst

Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, Jon immediately turned his attention to the NBA when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 14 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve and, when possible, lets the numbers do the talking.

Jon hosts the NBA Prop Picks show powered by EV Analytics, which airs on the Covers YouTube channel, and he is also a regular guest on Before You Bet with Joe Osborne.

Jon keeps his eye on the NBA betting markets 365 days a year and uses 10-plus sportsbooks to always shop around for the best price for whichever bet he is looking to place. If there are NBA games on for that current day, you can guarantee that Jon woke up way too early, has already had some caffeine, and is ready to begin placing bets on NBA player props.

His favorite sportsbooks are Pinnacle, Caesars, and Betano, with the first two being where he places the majority of his bets, while Betano sneaks into the top three because of their creative futures markets for the NBA.

Before joining Covers in December 2023, Jon worked as a sports betting analyst at Sportsbook Review. He also holds a Bachelor's degree from the University of Windsor, where he studied Human Kinetics with a focus on Sports Studies.

Jon's top piece of advice for sports bettors: "Any outcome is possible in sports betting; you're just hunting for one that is more probable than the sportsbooks have it priced."

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