The Boston Red Sox come into their weekend series with the Oakland Athletics fresh off their seventh straight victory which was capped off by a 15-1 win yesterday afternoon versus the Royals. Oakland has lost eight of its last 12 and now trails the Astros for the division lead by 1.5 games.
The Red Sox will start lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who is pitching to a 6.23 ERA over the last 30 days but is just 1-0 in those five starts. The A’s will counter with right-hander Frankie Montas. The Oakland starter has an 8.24 ERA over his last two starts and a 5.28 ERA over the last month. The Red Sox opened as slight -115 favorites with the total sitting at 8.5.
Here are our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Athletics on July 2.
Red Sox vs Athletics game info
• Location: RingCentral Coliseum, Oakland, CA
• Date: Friday, July 2, 2021
• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN, NBCSCA
Red Sox vs Athletics odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonBoston opened as a -114 favorite Thursday night at DraftKings, slid to nearly a pick 'em at -109 this morning, peaked at -118 near lunch hour and is -117 at 6:30 p.m. ET. The Red Sox are drawing 65 percent of moneyline bets and 58 percent of moneyline dollars. The total opened at 8.5 (Under -113) and just dropped to 8 (Over -118), although tickets and money are both beyond 9/1 on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameRed Sox vs Athletics betting preview
Starting pitchers
Eduardo Rodriguez (6-4, 5.83 ERA): Rodriguez is coming off one of his better starts on Sunday versus the Yankees, but even with the two-run showing, the lefty still has allowed 44 runs and 74 hits over his last 55 2-3 innings. Perhaps Sunday’s start was a turning point but Oakland hits lefties well as it has scored the second-most runs and swatted the third-most home runs against southpaws.
Frankie Montas (7-7, 4.72 ERA): Montas got shelled for eight runs two starts ago but bounced back nicely versus the Giants — 5IP, 2H, 2R, 3BB, 5K. Montas’ spin rates are down but his home runs allowed are up. The Oakland pitcher has a 1.45 HR/9 which is well above the league average and batters are hitting .261 off him this season compared to the league average of .236. Montas’ home/road splits are pretty even but right-handed hitters are getting the best of the starter, slashing .283/.325/.482.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Red Sox: Bobby Dalbec 1B (Questionable).
Athletics: Mark Canha OF (Out), Stephen Piscotty OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in Rodriguez's last five starts vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Athletics.
Moneyline pick
Only a few games separate these two clubs in the standings, but these are two very different teams at the start of July.
Boston has ripped off seven straight games — all at home — and scored six or more runs in five of them. Even with baseball’s 10th-worst ERA among starters, the Red Sox have the third-best bullpen in the AL and only Houston has scored more runs than Boston this year. The offense is a big reason the BoSox have the best record in the AL.
Montas could be in for a rough day versus the Boston bats Friday night. Montas is a mixed-bag as his inconsistencies are hard to predict. When he gets hit hard, he really gets hit hard. Just two starts ago, he was tagged for eight runs on nine hits with two home runs. He also struggles to pitch deep into games and has recorded a quality start in just seven of his 15 starts. Oakland is 2-6 SU in Montas’ last eight outings.
The Red Sox are averaging just under 5.00 runs per game on the road which is the fourth-best mark in baseball. They may need those runs Friday night as Rodriguez has been known to get lit up. But with a starting rotation ERA of 4.57, Boston knows how to bail out its poor starting pitching. The Red Sox are 5-0 SU in Rodriguez’s last five starts.
It might seem a bit trappy getting the Red Sox at -115 on a traveling day, but Boston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when being -125 or higher and is 4-2 SU in the first game of a road series over its last six. It may be square, but we’re backing the visitors Friday night.
PREDICTION: Boston (-115)
Over/Under pick
Two pitchers who have been known to get lit up, an Oakland offense that hits lefties well, a Boston offense that has been elite all year and is coming off a 15-run performance, and an 11 mph wind blowing out to right field makes this pick simple for us.
The right-handed bats of Boston (Enrique Hernandez, JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts and Hunter Renfroe) should get in some good hacks versus Montas. The A’s pitcher has allowed right-handed hitters to post a .283 AVG with a K% of 18 percent. That’s in sharp contrast to lefties who are hitting .238 and are striking out at a 30-percent clip. The middle of the order could do some damage Friday.
Oakland comes into the series with a 9-5 O/U record over its last 14 games. The bullpen sits in the middle of the league on the season and has the seventh-worst ERA over the last month. If Montas can’t get deep — he’s pitched at least six innings just twice over his last six starts — then the Boston bats could be teeing off on a struggling 'pen.
Oakland's offense hasn’t been great this year, but it has scored the seventh-most runs in baseball since the beginning of May. The A’s are also a hard out having cut down on their strikeouts over the last 30 days with a 20.7 K%. Oakland is also scoring 1.13 runs per nine batters against LHP this year, which is one of the best marks in baseball.
At 8.5 and -105, we can’t say no.
PREDICTION: Over 8.5 (-105)
Red Sox vs Athletics betting card
- Boston (-115)
- Over 8.5 (-105)
Picks made on 07/02/2021 at 7:27 a.m. ET
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