It’s a bit of a lighter day of MLB action with just nine games on the diamond. However, four matinee matchups mean player prop bets all day long.
Today, we pass the Blue Jays' total bases baton back to the still red-hot Lourdes Gurriel Jr., break down Patrick Corbin's hits allowed prop, and back the Luis Severino strikeout show to continue when the Yankees take on the Rays.
Check out our MLB player prop picks for Thursday, June 16, as we bank on some of baseball's best to do their thing.
(Editor's Note: These picks were made prior to Thursday afternoon's announcement that Luis Severino would be placed on IL, with Clarke Schmidt starting in his place for the Yankees.)
MLB props for June 16
Picks made on 6/16/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
LGJ keeps rolling
After a one-day break, we are handing the Toronto Blue Jays total bases baton back to Lourdes Gurriel Jr. as the Jays close out their four-game set with the Baltimore Orioles.
We said that we wouldn’t stop riding the Pina Power train until he cooled off or the value dried up. Well, neither of those things have happened to this point.
Gurriel is still on fire at the dish and extended his hitting streak to 10 games last night, by going 2-4 in Toronto’s 7-6 extra-innings win. The Jays’ outfielder is now hitting .475 with a 1.150 OPS, going Over 1.5 total bases eight times over that stretch.
Tonight, he’ll go against Orioles towering right-hander Tyler Wells. The 6-foot-8 starter has been solid for the O’s, pitching to a 3.46 expected ERA. The right-hander has some excellent breaking stuff, but opponents have locked on to his fastball giving up a .319 expected batting average off it.
And while Wells has clearly improved over last season, he had some trouble in six relief appearances against the Jays. Wells allowed eight runs on 11 hits, including two homers over 6 2-3 innings. Lourdes went 2-3 in this matchup and was responsible for one of those dingers.
The value we’re getting with this bet is outstanding.
Pick: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 2+ total bases (+150 at FanDuel)
Auto-fading Corbin
A hits allowed total prop of 6.5 for a starting pitcher is high. So, your initial reaction might be to run to the betting window and take the Under, but hold up. There is seemingly no hits total too high for Washington Nationals starter Patrick Corbin (particularly at the right price).
Corbin is basically MLB’s most expensive innings-eater at this point. The left-hander has basically struggled since signing that huge offseason deal with the Nats and 2022 has continued that downward trend.
Corbin is pitching to an expected ERA of 6.03 while surrendering a .311 expected batting average to opposing teams and now he must contend with one of the best lineups in baseball in the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Phillies are starting to crush baseballs and lefties are no exception. The Phillies rank ninth in batting average (.252), fourth in OPS (.772), and fourth in home runs (26) when facing off against southpaws this season.
Philly also did a good job of getting to Corbin last season, whacking 23 hits in his last 17 innings pitched against them.
With Corbin coming into this matchup allowing seven, nine, 12, seven, and eight hits in his last five starts, the Over 6.5 isn’t so scary in this matchup, especially when we are getting plus money like this.
Pick: Patrick Corbin Over 6.5 hits allowed (+125)
Severe struggles against Severino
It feels like everything is going right for the New York Yankees at the moment. Between the hitting, the starters, and the bullpen, everything is clicking. The resurgence of Luis Severino has been a big part of the success in that rotation.
Severino is looking a lot like the guy who finished Top 10 in Cy Young voting in 2017 and 2018. The right-hander is pitching to an expected ERA of 2.56, limiting opponents to a .205 expected batting average, and he is starting to rack up the strikeouts in bunches. He’ll look to keep that up tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Severino is striking out a big 11.68 batters per nine innings over his last six starts, punching out 10, 10, eight, five, seven, and eight in those contests, moving him into the 83rd percentile in strikeout rate. And now he gets to face off against a free-swinging Rays team.
Tampa ranks 25th in strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitchers, and 16th in strikeouts per game overall and had their problems with Severino when they last met on May 29. Severino struck out eight Rays in 6 1-3 innings in that matchup and there’s no reason to think he can’t have a similar performance in this one.
Pick: Luis Severino Over 6.5 strikeouts (-130)
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