After a drama-filled week, the Philadelphia Phillies escape the City of Brotherly Love and the local media for a three-game stay against the Milwaukee Brewers, starting Tuesday.
Philadelphia axed manager Joe Girardi Friday, then promptly pulled out a three-game series sweep over the L.A. Angeles under interim skip Rob Thomson, totaling 26 runs in those wins. Milwaukee, on the other hand, dropped three of four at home to San Diego, but has much-needed reinforcements on the way.
Here are our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Phillies at Brewers on June 7.
Phillies vs Brewers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Milwaukee opened as a -115 home favorite and has slid five cents to -110 at some books, with Philadelphia going from -105 to -110. However, money on the host side has slid the moneyline back to its original price. The total opened at 8.5 runs with the Over priced at -115, which has since flipped to Under -112 with early play on a lower-scoring finish.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Phillies vs Brewers predictions
Picks made on 6/7/2022 at 10:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Phillies vs Brewers game info
• Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Tuesday, June 7, 2022
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Bally Sports Wisconsin
Phillies vs Brewers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Ranger Suarez (4-3, 4.69 ERA): The left-hander is mired in a three-game funk, going 0-2 with a beefy ERA north of seven. Suarez started off strong against San Francisco in his last start, pitching four scoreless innings before command issues did him in in the fifth frame. He’s failed to go further than five innings in each of those past three games with 14 strikeouts to nine walks. However, he has performed better on the road, with a 3-1 record and 4.03 ERA as a visitor.
Jason Alexander (0-0, 2.57 ERA): The righty gets another go Tuesday with Milwaukee’s staff decimated by injuries this spring. Alexander was sound in his big league debut last Wednesday, going seven innings against the Cubs. He fanned three and walked three while allowing two earned runs. Alexander could be singing for his supper in this start, as the Brewers are expected to get some arms back soon which would bump him back to the minors.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Phillies: Nick Maton SS (Out), Jean Segura SS (Out), Rafael Alejandro Marchan C (Out).
Brewers: Willy Adames SS (Probable), Hunter Renfroe RF (Probable), Luis Urias 2B (Questionable), Mike Brosseau 3B (Out), Omar Narvaez C (Out), Pedro Severino C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 12-3-1 in the Phillies’ last 16 road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Brewers
Phillies vs Brewers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The move at manager sparked some life in Philadelphia, at least according to star Bryce Harper’s play. He was 4-for-10 at the plate in the series sweep of the Halos, including three home runs (one for a grand slam) and eight RBI over those three outings.
The Phillies totaled 26 runs in those wins, which eclipsed the 20 total runs the team mustered on their five-game losing skid to end May. Granted, those last three losses all came in extra innings, and the shakeup in the clubhouse could be just what the Phils need to get over the hump.
Philadelphia may need all the runs it can get from the lineup with Suarez toeing the rubber tonight. He’s been up-and-down over his last three outings and hasn’t lasted long, turning things over to the Phillies’ putrid bullpen too early into ballgames.
Milwaukee enters this series swinging a wet spaghetti noodle, batting just .153 over those three losses to San Diego. The Brewers are coming off a grueling stretch of 18 games in 17 days which was compounded by injuries to the pitching staff as well as the daily lineup.
However, the team caught its breath with a day off Monday and could have some bodies back on the field, with OF Hunter Renfroe, SS Willy Adames, and 3B Luis Urias all expected to return to action vs. Philadelphia.
Alexander is making just his second major league start, but gave Milwaukee seven solid innings in his debut. The Brewers don’t need the right-hander to be lights out, just log enough innings to get past his counterpart Suarez and allow Milwaukee to abuse Philadelphia’s bust of a bullpen. From there, the Brewers can turn to dynamite closer Josh Hader and a relief corps that leads the majors with 23 saves.
Prediction: Brewers moneyline (-115 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
This total opened as low as eight runs and has since jumped to 8.5, with the Over moving from EVEN money to -115 as of Tuesday morning.
The energy in the clubhouse could carry over for Philadelphia, which has driven in six or more runs during its current four-game winning streak — all of those games topping the total.
The Phillies have one of the better extra-base hit percentages in the bigs (8%) and that spiked to 11.7% this past weekend. They’re also a solid team when it comes to cashing in those runners, hitting .263 with RISP on the season.
Milwaukee’s struggles against the Padres this past week could be remedied with a little rest and the return of those key bats in the lineup. The Brewers are a better team at home than whatever showed up in that last series, averaging 4.79 runs per home game (7th) so far in 2022.
They have struggled vs. left-handers (hitting just .210 vs LHP), but Suarez’s command can disappear at any point and he’s likely not sticking around long. That puts the ball in the hands of the Phils bullpen, which has an ERA just south of 4.00 and routinely ruined games for the Phillies as well as Under bettors.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-115 at bet365)
Best bet
Two shutout losses to the Padres this weekend have the Brewers’ bats looking pretty tame for this Tuesday tangle. Bookies have Milwaukee’s team total sitting at four runs for the first game of this series with the Phillies.
The Brewers’ recent skid, losing five of their last six, is in part of a hectic schedule as well as that nasty rash of injuries. But with a break on Monday and no travel between series, they're seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.
The return of Renfroe, Adames, and Urias is a big lift for a club battling to keep its head above water over the past few weeks. The Brewers are clinging to first place in the National League Central and have a great shot to get right at home against Philadelphia before playing away from Miller Park for nine games following this three-game set.
On the season, Milwaukee averages 4.79 runs per home game and faces a Phillies side that hemorrhages 5.25 runs on the road. We like the Brew Crew to top its modest team total tonight.
Pick: Brewers team total Over four (-120 at FanDuel)
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