The New York Mets don't have much going for them heading into their latest Subway Series encounter with the rival New York Yankees in the Bronx, but they do have the pitching edge in Saturday's game.
Taijuan Walker looks to continue his strong start to the season as the Mets come in as only slight underdogs against left-hander Jordan Montgomery and the Yankees. The Mets have lost two in a row, shrinking their NL East lead to two games, and they won't have Jacob DeGrom in action this weekend after he pitched Thursday vs. Atlanta.
Check out our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Mets vs. Yankees on July 3.
Mets vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, New York City, NY
• Date: Saturday, July 3, 2021
• Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
• TV: SNY, WPIX
Mets vs Yankees odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThe Subway Series starts off a full Saturday slate of baseball. FanDuel opened this matchup at Yankees -152 overnight, and as of 10:45 a.m. ET, the moneyline hasn't moved off that price, with the Mets +128 on the buyback. The Yankees are attracting 70 percent of tickets and 75 percent of money. The total is stable at 8.5, seeing a few modest price moves but now back at the opener of Over -118, with 61 percent of tickets/69 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMets vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Taijuan Walker (6-3, 2.38 ERA): Walker remains one of the savviest acquisitions of the offseason. The 28-year-old spun another gem last time out against the Philadelphia Phillies, allowing just one run over five innings with five strikeouts. Walker scuffled somewhat in June (2-2, 3.26 ERA) but has still held opponents to a minuscule .201 OBA over 79 1-3 innings in 2021.
Jordan Montgomery (3-2, 4.06 ERA): Quality starts have been elusive for Montgomery in recent weeks, but he fashioned one in his previous outing by limiting the Red Sox to three runs in six innings. He has seen his ERA improve over each of the first three months, from a 4.39 mark in April to a 4.06 ERA in May down to 3.77 over five June starts.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Mets: Jonathan Villar 2B (Out), Brandon Nimmo OF (Out), Tomas Nido C (Out), Jose Martinez 1B (Out).
Yankees: Aaron Hicks OF (Out), Clint Frazier OF (Questionable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 8-1 in the previous nine meetings at Yankee Stadium. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Yankees.
Moneyline pick
Even after blowing a seven-run lead in an 11-8 loss to the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday night, you have to like where the Yankees' offense is headed. The Bronx Bombers are finally living up to their moniker, having scored 18 runs over the past two games to finish fifth in the majors in wOBA+ (116) for the month of June.
And while Walker has looked like a man reinvented so far this season, we can't ignore what current members of the Yankee roster have done against him, even in a small sample. New York hitters own a ridiculous .404/.522/.685 slash line as a team vs. Walker, with Giancarlo Stanton, Rougned Odor, and Luke Voit all having taken him deep.
Then there's the significant matter of the Mets' showing against left-handed pitching so far this season. The NL East leaders rank 27th in the majors in OPS vs. lefties in 2021 (.673) while their .148 ISO is good for 25th overall. Montgomery hasn't been as sharp as the Yankees would like him to be, but Saturday is a great get-right spot for him against a lefty-averse Mets lineup.
We generally favor the starting pitching matchup when making our ML picks, but this is an example where digging a little deeper into the numbers gives us more confidence in Montgomery and the Yankees.
PREDICTION: Yankees (-192)
Over/Under pick
We don't know which version of Walker will show up to Yankee Stadium, but the smart money is on an iteration somewhere between the meatball-throwing righty the Yankees have feasted on and the guy who has looked mostly dominant this season.
Working under that presumption makes the total play a little clearer, if only because we don't have much confidence at all in the Mets' ability to put up crooked numbers in this one. They rank in the bottom quarter of the league in the majority of meaningful statistics vs. southpaws, and they rank in the middle of the pack in average runs scored over the final three innings (1.21).
The total seems a bit high even with the Yankees' offense rolling of late. One big inning will unravel this bet, but we don't see that coming Saturday.
PREDICTION: Under 8 (-115)
Mets vs Yankees betting card
- Yankees (-192)
- Under 8 (-115)
Picks made on 7/02/2021 at 9:38 p.m. ET
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