College football’s inaugural 12-team playoff to decide a champion has sportsbooks preparing for a significant action increase.
With four first-round games on college campuses followed by four bowl-integrated quarterfinals and two semifinal games before the national title contest, the betting setup mirrors the NFL in a way the sport has never seen before.
Will that type of action follow?
“These games will write great action,” Jeff Benson, director of operations at Circa Sports, told Covers. “Maybe not the same as an NFL playoff game but pretty darn close.”
Over the last decade, the bowl games have been hit or miss in terms of action while the playoff was reserved for around the New Year with the title game coming in mid-January.
This year, sportsbooks brace for heavy college football wagering Dec. 20 and Dec. 21 with the first round of games.
“We believe the interest for the inaugural 12-team CFP will be through the roof,” Superbook Las Vegas director Jay Kornegay told Covers. “In past years, football handle drops a bit during the holidays but immediately picks up right after Christmas. The first round of CFP games might be affected by the holidays, but the rest of the playoff schedule is set for prime-time dates and times.”
In the past, college football bettors have had bowl games only that come down to players sitting out and factoring in which teams want to be there. This year’s playoff adds meaning to a time of the year, especially in December, that could be defined by a new type of wagering action.
“We don’t expect it to match NFL playoff levels, but it will be more than we’ve seen in the past,” Kornegay said. “Just like the pro ranks, betting handle is expected to build as we move forward to the championship game. Personally, I can’t wait.”
Prime Sports' Adam Bjorn told Covers that betting limits for the playoff will be the highest offered to date this college football season but still not as high as NFL playoff lines, which he says are the "sharpest in all of sports."
Early insights
The first round of CFP games is still more than a week away, but sportsbooks are already providing college bowl game odds and reports on where the action is going.
Tennessee-Ohio State is the most-bet game so far at BetMGM with the Vols getting more money and tickets than any of the other eight teams at the sportsbook. Tennessee, a 7.5-point road underdog, is getting 88% of the handle and 76% of the bets at DraftKings. ESPN BET has seen a more even split on the spread, but it reported an early 81% of moneyline handle and 56% of wagers are on the Vols.
Indiana is another popular road underdog. Notre Dame is a 7.5-point favorite over Indiana, but DraftKings said 70% of the handle has come in on the Hoosiers. The second-most bet team at BetMGM, Indiana is getting 62.9% of the money at ESPN BET.
SMU-Penn State, the third-most bet contest, is seeing the most even action of the first-round games. DraftKings reported a 50-50 handle while 53% of the tickets have come in on the Nittany Lions as 8.5-point favorites. At ESPN BET, however, Penn State is getting 68.5% of the money.
There’s an interesting split in the Clemson-Texas showdown. The Longhorns, listed as a 10.5-point favorite, are the fourth-most bet team by handle while the Tigers are the fourth-most bet team by tickets at BetMGM. ESPN BET and DraftKings also reported similar splits in the early going.
National title market
Heading into the 12-team playoff, sports betting operators appear to be in pretty good shape in the national championship winner market.
“Oregon, Georgia, and Texas are the favorites to win the College Football Playoff,” BetMGM senior trader Cameron Drucker said. “We will be cheering for the chalk as all three of those teams are good results for the sportsbook.”
The Ducks are tied with Texas for the best odds (+350) at BetMGM. Georgia is listed third at +400.
Ohio State is fifth at +500 followed by Penn State (+625), Notre Dame (+900), Tennessee (+2,600), Indiana (+4,000), SMU (+4,000), Clemson (+5,000), Arizona State (+5,000), and Boise State (+6,000).
Kornegay said that SuperBook has “minor liability” with Indiana, Penn State, and Notre Dame.
“Boise State is our biggest liability,” he said.
