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Quote Originally Posted by JWD1984:
That super bowl loser trend has begun to turn in recent years. Between 1984-2011 the super bowl runner-up has gone 9-19 SU & 8-20 ATS on opening day but 5-2 SU & 3-4 ATS s/¡¯12.
My analysis angle on this is not purely based on the Super Bowl runners up theory, I threw it in there because it adds value to my case but my main reasoning is more how the Rams lost the Super Bowl and the fact the line looks short/fishy to me.
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SwishSwish1234 | 18 |
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Lancer, Macwestie.
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SwishSwish1234 | 18 |
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Quote Originally Posted by FRESH1014: Not One Person On This Forum Is On The RAMS Thanks Again For The Winner. Occasionally covers gets it right also, Nothing to worry about.
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SwishSwish1234 | 18 |
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created a topic
Panthers ML is my top play today, High percentage spot to fade the Rams
in NFL Betting Record: 0-0 1, The Rams are +800 to win the Super Bowl outright, The Panthers are +5000 to win the Super Bowl outright, The line is -1.5 to the Rams. The Lions are -2.5 vs the Cardinals and the Lions and Cards are both +8000 to win the Super Bowl outright. So if the Lions and Cards are equally bad, outsides in this league, How comes the Lions can lay a bigger number on the road than the Super Bowl runners up and highly rated Rams who aren't facing a team of equal measure, They are infinitely superior than the Rams on paper, Fishy ass line. 2. How does that Super Bowl debacle affect Goff? Clearly the Pats have shown how you slow down the Rams offense, The question is has the whiz kid McVay got a counter punch to what every team will do to them this year? Not sure. 3. Super Bowl runners up in general don't start the following season well unless of course it's the Pats who don't have that hangover feeling as they live in the Super Bowl but for majority of first time SB teams who lose, They suffer from a hang over and can struggle especially on the road. 4. The Panthers are a very good home team and Cam is a different player at home, Cam at home, Scam on the road. Panthers ML +105 is my top and only play today. |
SwishSwish1234 | 18 |
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replied to
We rarely see a psychological angle like this in week one: Niners Statement Game
in NFL Betting
I'm sorry but for week 1 no team has any extra motivation or less motivation, Both teams have spent their entire off-season preparing for this game. Sure if you think match-up wise the Niners can get the job done, Great, but to think the Bucs won't be just as pumped up, Motivated for this is flat out naive, It's a home opener.
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begginerboy | 34 |
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created a topic
How do you think you will get on this year? More inevitable losing or will you finally break out?
in NFL Betting
I have had one winning season in a decade betting on the NFL, The last one being the year Favre was playing the Vikings. I'm not as excited as i usually am for the NFL as the excitement come week 1 turns into inevitable frustration come week 4/5 and my bankroll is usually done by Christmas.
The only thing i can remember from my last winning season was i limited my picks to 1 a week and went big, Had like a 6/7 week winning streak and ended up +6/7 k for the year. I might revisit that, Although my other weakness has been betting totals, I never placed total bets that year also. How will you be approaching your weekly NFL betting this year? Are you excited like always or like me, Have a bit of nerves regarding your chances? Feel free to let rip your thoughts. Good luck for the season fellas.
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SwishSwish1234 | 2 |
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The public perception of the Patriots has done a 360 in one short week, From the dynasty is over, To Brady will score 50 in arrowhead, You got to love the public.
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hillardoh1 | 11 |
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Quote Originally Posted by SwishSwish1234: You seem insecure. Sorry, I thought you backed New England and were trying to make yourself feel better by saying the public was on the Chiefs.
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RockChalk5 | 83 |
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Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight: Seems the public is on KC since they have seen them being the better team this season but I don't care much. The public gets their share of wins, fading the public doesn't really work that well in the long term. You seem insecure.
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RockChalk5 | 83 |
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Has Mahomes played in any cold games? It was minus temperatures against the Colts plus it was snowing in the first Q. If you're backing New England you have to be slightly worried about this sudden change of public perception, Last week it was the dynasty will end, This week it's they will go into arrowhead and bully a team that averages 30 ppg, A slight overreaction imo.
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lancer89074 | 22 |
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I like Colin but i have just finished off watching the 2015/16 AFC title game and the Pats had to go on the road to an AFC West side just like this time. The crowd and pass rush really flustered Brady, Do the Chiefs have an edge with their home field i.e. crowd? Yes, Do they have pass rushers? Yes, The Chiefs offense won't score 30 here as Belichick will slow them down but i just can't see the Pats edging this. I'm still capping these two games and don't have an official pick yet as boy, I don't think i've ever had to cap such tight games as these before, In the morning, I like the Pats, In the afternoon i like the Chiefs.
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lancer89074 | 22 |
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The NFL and TV networks don't want any specific matchup for the Super Bowl this year, They are in a win/win situation for every match up.
Chiefs/Rams, Rematch of that classic MNF game from earlier this year Chiefs/Saints, The duel of the two MVP favorites Patriots/Rams, Potentially new dynasty versus dynasty that is going to end soon, Plus Boston v LA. Patriots/Saints, Battle between two top 5 all time QB's, Plus Payton v Belichick subplot. The networks can't lose this year.
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SwishSwish1234 | 10 |
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I haven't got the ATS stat for this but since 2012/13, In both AFC/NFC title games, The home side has won every single match in that period and given both of this years home sides can be played at 3 for good value, That stat certainly makes me rethink my Rams bet.
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SwishSwish1234 | 10 |
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Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP: You're basing this line based on what they did in regular season until now?. Weird approach. But I have the answer. Saints have gone 8-1 (I am removing week 17 game since it meant nothing for them and starters rested) Rams have gone 6-2 in the same span (I am including their week 17 game because it meant something for their seeding). So, there you have it. Saints with better record after week 9, they are at home, and beat Rams in the same building by 10. Line is perfect.
So what are you trying to say? That the Rams have digressed by 5 points during that time? Or the Saints have improved by 5 points in that time? I personally think the teams are dead equal, If not the Rams playing slightly better, Since that Dallas game the Saints offense has not been as dangerous as it was in that 4/5 game span were they tore everyone a new one.
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SwishSwish1234 | 6 |
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What's changed so much in favor of New Orleans since then?
Go back and watch that game, The Rams were a bad call away from making it 21-14 in the 2nd q. Does Brees' and Payton's experience of crunch playoff football make them that superior over the young duo of Goff and Mcvay? p.s. I know the line is officially -3, -120 but in essence it's 3.5 as you can buy the hook on the Rams for reasonable juice.
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SwishSwish1234 | 6 |
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replied to
SEATTLE @ COWBOYS: Every Penny Seattle took from me for the season win total comes back right here!!
in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by Bobbys_pregame: couldn't give a damn what anyone else thinks, I been on this site for a long time now and scalabrine is one of the best there is for in depth analysis and betting angles. I totally agree, Bobby. Like i said before when Scal puts it on the line, and decides to take the time to make a thread with a long, detailed, write up, I'd say he hits 80 % of the time. I could care less if he goes 6-10/5-11 on his smaller bets, When the crunch time hits, He's clutch, That's a trait of a winner.
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scalabrine | 269 |
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Such a basic way of analyzing, A few years back, A Flacco led, Harbaugh coached, Ravens team went into Foxboro and won as 9 point underdogs, The Patriots had the edge in both QB and HC yet the Ravens won, Why? Determination, Motivation, For the Pats, The AFC Championship game comes around every year, For the Ravens it's a once in a decade sort of thing, Ray Lewis' final season also.
Which teams have a determination factor? Which teams have a chip on their shoulder? Which teams have a lot more to lose if they get beat? The Texans/Colts game is pretty equal, The Cowboys/Seahawks game is a big edge for the Cowboys, Constantly ridiculed for failing in the playoffs, Seahawks are post season regulars, Won't be the end of the world if they lose, Will build on the success of this year into next year, Over achieved with mediocre roster. Ravens/Chargers, Big edge to the Chargers, Possibly Rivers' final postseason, Haven't been in the postseason in donkeys, The Ravens have over achieved with LJ, Have a bright future, Not the end of the world if they lose etc.
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begginerboy | 25 |
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replied to
SEATTLE @ COWBOYS: Every Penny Seattle took from me for the season win total comes back right here!!
in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by bpickin: Thoughts on indy/Houston and chargers/Balt? I have big superbowl futures on both and am wondering if I should hedge or wait another week. the line is so short on both... one in my favor and the other is not. Thanks In the Colts/Texans game, I'm leaning Colts as of now, The Texans play has dipped a level these past weeks and the Colts have the confidence knowing they have been there and done that winning in that stadium. However they are both so equal and know each other well, It's a game of fine margins and you never know Watt could win them the game on his own. Regarding the Chargers/Ravens, How the Ravens are favored here is beyond me, The Chargers are a 12 win team and have an elite, veteran QB. Yes the Ravens beat them a few weeks ago but the Chargers had an opportunity to win that late despite how well the Ravens d played, Go back and watch it, It was one play that decided that game. The Ravens D as Mayfield showed is not the Ray Lewis Raven's D, It's good but a smart, veteran QB will get the better of it, I will be on the Chargers and if LJ proves me wrong, I will tip my cap to the rookie but he won't.
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scalabrine | 269 |
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replied to
SEATTLE @ COWBOYS: Every Penny Seattle took from me for the season win total comes back right here!!
in NFL Betting
One thing i have learned on here, When Scal has a long, detailed write up in favor of a certain team, He gets it right more often than not, If anything, Scal taking the time to make a thread is usually an indicator of how strong his opinion of that game is.
I was leaning that way as well, Far too many people towing the line of 'Of course, Garrett will mess things up' or 'Wilson is a big game player' etc etc. The Cowboys defense is legit this year and with Cooper the Cowboys are the better side on offense. One other huge factor that people are ignoring, The expectancy, The pressure on the Cowboys to win this year is not there, Fans have been let down so much in the past that they are just enjoying the ride, Remember there was a time during this season where both Dak and Garrett's jobs were on the line, There's a determination about this Dallas side. BOL Scal |
scalabrine | 269 |
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This news has come out on the Thursday before a big game for the Pats, It will be interesting to see if Belichick knew about this before hand and therefore didn't have him in the game plan this weekend, If he didn't, That could spell trouble for the Pats, Obviously not for the money line but in terms of covering the spread.
The Broncos lost Sutton midweek before they played the Niners and looked inept on offense that game, Not that they were the Kurt Warner Rams before hand but they were even worse. Interesting to see what the line does now.
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Digitalkarma | 34 |
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