Spartacus10

Should have been 2nd & 28. Most blatant hold not called.

The defence will eventually make a play so I wouldn't worry about the 2nd half cover. Plus their running game has been great. They should be pounding the rock more.

I really don't understand why Orgeron elected to punt that ball. You're on Bama side of the field 4th & 8 down 22-0 with ~3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. The only angle there would be is he believes Tua won't be coming back for this series.

There's no chance Saban is taking the foot off the gas with a 20 point lead. Maybe if they're up 28+ with less than 10 minutes left, but it's not happening in your scenario.

It's taking an incredible amount of restraint not to hammer Bama -6.5/-7 2nd half. LSU isn't scoring, it's that simple. The scoreboard is painting an inaccurate picture. Bama could easily be up 28-0. Bama has run the ball very effectively and that only strengthens the second half play. I'm thinking this game ends about 40/44-0/3. LSU has become one dimensional and their passing game is atrocious. I said before the game Bama's defence will probably outscore LSU's offence, and I still believe that's possible.

Bama 224yds and LSU 38yds.

This game is a lot closer on the scoreboard than it feels. LSU has done nothing and Bama hasn't been converting RZ trips to TD's.

I don't see LSU moving the ball tonight. Dinking and dunking against Bama isn't going to work. Burrow has faced one third down and it should have been a pick 6.

Not my largest wager of the year, but it's up there. I'm in a similar boat. I've been rolling with Bama all year mostly 1st half, but with a spread this low, I'm all over the FG spread. Added some more at -13 to put me into the 5 figure range.

Good luck dude 

This is gonna get ugly quick. I'm curious to see what LSU does when they're down DD early in this game. Will they stick to the run game or will they start forcing the pass? LSU had 0 passing TD's in October. If LSU is forced to abandon the run, Bama's defence will force multiple turnovers. Tua won't see the field in the 4th.

Also, this Bama offence may not have been tested all that much this season, but how quickly everyone is forgetting about the NC game. Tua, a redshirt freshman who had taken less than 100 snaps all season, stepped in at HT against a Georgia defence that is better than this LSU defence. What did he do? Oh, not much, just went 14/24 166yds 3TDs and 1INT. The INT was at the very beginning of the second half before he settled in. I'm not here to bash anyone, but LSU backers are going to feel really silly 20 minutes into this game.

I said it before and I'll say it again, Bama's defence will score more points than LSU will through the air. Burrow will throw minimum 2 INT's because they'll have no choice but to abandon the running game. LSU may be the #3 ranked team in the country, but they don't have the formula to beat Bama. Since Saban took over, no team that plays smash mouth Bama style football has ever beaten Bama, and nothing will change tonight.

Saban doesn't want to beat LSU tonight, he wants to obliterate them. He wants to send a loud message tonight, the message will send a shockwave through college football. They'll beat LSU so bad that the rest of their opponents from here on out will lose the game before it's even started because they'll understand their fate is inevitable as well.

And how many of those games were against a dominant defence, best QB in the country, best offence in the country, best group of RB's in the country, best group of WR's in the country, etc? Books are literally begging people to take LSU here. Do you really think that home field is going to mean much when Bama puts up 14 quick points? Even if LSU defence plays their best game and they manage to hold Tua/Bama to 35 points, how on earth is this LSU offence going to score 21+ against this defence?

Since people enjoy using meaningless trends including games that had players that are now retired from the NFL, I'll throw one out there. Since 2011, LSU hasn't scored more than 17 points against Bama, and one of those games went to OT. 9, 0, 17, 17, 13, 16, 0, and 10. Those are the total points LSU has scored against Bama. Now, take away even 50% of Bama's FG's and turn them into TD's, and they pretty much blow LSU out every single game.

Been a long time since I've shown my face around here. Nice to see you're still around here Mac.

I'm not here to bash either, I'm just here spitting cold hard facts/truth. LSU has no chance to win this game. I wouldn't bet LSU ML at 20-1, never mind 5-1. There is a chance that a miracle occurs and LSU somehow keeps this a tight game, but again, I wouldn't take LSU +14.5 at +400. LSU's passing offence ranks 101/129. They have 6 passing TD's all year. Tua has thrown 71 LESS passes than Burrow and has 500 more yards, 19 more TD's and 3 less INT's. Unless Burrow suddenly turns into Manzel or Newton, this is game is going to be a joke considering it's the #1 vs #3 team in the nation.

I'm curious how those other 71 games compare to this one in any way shape or form? Just another useless trend stat that has nothing to do with this game.

groove, at least we can agree on something in this thread. LSU WILL shock the world tonight when they give up 50+ points and 500+ yards. The only way that doesn't happen is if Bama has a 31+ point lead heading into the 4th quarter, than I'll keep it a bit more conservative and say they get 42+ points and 400+ yards because Hurts will play the rest of the game.

You're actually making a great argument for Bama. Rivarly game, at night, IN Death Valley against one of the best defences in the country and they're laying 14.5 points? The books are doing whatever they can to somewhat balance this action. Look at the line and ask yourself why, why did the books set this line where they did? I've never shied away from making bold statements/predictions, so here it goes, Bama will be covering 15-20 minutes in and never look back. Bama wins by 35+. It all depends on how long Tua plays, but I doubt he plays the 4th quarter when they're leading 41-6 after 3 quarters.

Last I checked, Texas A&M is ranked 1 spot behind LSU in total defence giving up 0.6 more yards per game than LSU. Feel free to remind us all what Bama did to A&M.

I don't care who Bama has played. You know what the eye test says? It doesn't matter whether it's a good, mediocre, or bad opponent, the end result will be the same. If Tua played the whole game Bama would be averaging 80+ points a game, let that sink in. Bama put up 31 first half points against A&M, and as someone who watched the game, it could have easily been 45+. A&M has a MUCH better offence than LSU as well. A&M made 2 big plays in the entire first half and that's the only reason they scored. Without a mobile QB, they would have scored 0 points. LSU's defence is going to be completely gassed because their offence will fall victim to 3 and outs all night. This LSU offence is downright putrid. The defence? No doubt it's one of the best in the country, but I have no doubt this Bama offence can put up 60+ against any team in the country if Tua played the full game.

Recent history can't be compared to this game. Bama has always had a boring, pedestrian offence that just wants to leave with a win. You're trying to compare Bama teams led by Sims, Coker, McCarron and Hurts to Tua? Stop comparing bottom of the barrel QB's to the best QB in the country. Also, Bama has never been this deep at WR. The only reason the LSU/Bama games have been close in the last 6 years is because Bama's offence was putrid and was forced to kick FG's. Bama now has the best QB in the country and FG's are a rare occurrence. I'm going to be really curious to see what happens when LSU goes down 14-0 early.

I'm a dog/under dominant bettor, but this is just silly. After watching this Bama offence for a few quarters, it immediately became evident that no team in college football can hang with Bama this year. I would feel confident taking Bama -21 against any team in the country. A few Vegas books had Bama as a projected 8.5 point favourite against Clemson, now THAT'S hilarious. 

Bama's defence is still top 3-5 in the country. Don't look at their full game stats on offence or defence, it doesn't paint an accurate picture, look at first half stats. Bama averages 40 points in the first half. Sure, LSU is the best defence they'll have faced all year, so instead of scoring 49 they'll score 31. LSU won't get many stops tonight, and with no passing game, there's literally no chance. No one will line up against Bama in the trenches and beat them at their own game. What happens when LSU goes down 14-0? 21-3? The game is over at that point.

Bama will eventually face a good offence like Oklahoma or a good defence like LSU, but it doesn't matter. LSU may match up defensively, but they can't score with Bama. Oklahoma may match up (somewhat) offensively, but they can't get stops like Bama. This team will be (nearly) impossible to beat, and IMO, no one will come close this year. There's no team in the country that can get more stops or put up more points. I have a feeling this game is going to be a complete joke by halftime, maybe midway through the 3rd. Bama will put up 42+ in this game, and I don't see any way LSU scores more than 14-17, and I think that's being rather generous. LSU will go down double digits, they'll be forced to throw the ball, and bad things are going to happen. Bama's defence will probably score more points than LSU will through the air.

The books are literally begging you to take LSU. Ask yourself why the #3 team in the country is a 14.5 point dog at home in a rivalry game at night in Death Valley? Bama covers this game 20 minutes in and never looks back.