newbs24

Sharing my college hoops computer model. I run projections for every game and then find the most valuable plays according to my model. I won't personally play all these games but will share them as an extra tool for your own personal handicap. I will keep tabs on the plays that the model deems valuable.

Tonight's plays for sides and totals

SIDES:

UT Arlington: 73.05

UL Monroe: 78.25

Play: UL Monroe +7

William & Mary: 83.77

Old Dominion: 71.75

Play: William & Mary -7.5

Chicago St: 56.9

St. Thomas: 97.68

Play: St. Thomas -19.5

Loyola Maryland: 74.16

Coppin St: 56.77

Play: Loyola Maryland -7.5

UMBC: 68.57

Georgetown: 77.31

Play: UMBC +17.5

Pacific: 67.28

Colorado: 77.15

Play: Pacific +15.5

Jackson St: 59.44

St. Louis: 99.08

Play: St. Louis -19.5

Bryant: 75.65

Drexel: 80.12

Play: Drexel -1.5

Yale: 77.08

Rhode Island: 89.53

Play: Rhode Island -2.5

TOTALS:

Chicago St: 56.9

St. Thomas: 97.68

Play: over 140.5

UMBC: 68.57

Georgetown: 77.31

Play: under 156.5

Washington St: 76.66

Nevada: 85.02

Play: over 146.5

Yale: 77.08

Rhode Island: 89.53

Play: over 155

5 Model plays on the slate today

Model totals went 2-0 yesterday

All projections went 4-2 overall

4/5/24 - Projected totals: 

Model Totals: (nX projection)

White Sox/Royals o8 (9.87)

Orioles/Pirates o8 (9.25)

A's/Tigers o7.5 (8.55)

Mariners/Brewers u8 (7.16)

Phillies/Nationals o8.5 (9.33) 

Non Model Totals: (nX projection)

- Dodgers/Cubs o7.5 (8.16)

- D-backs/Braves u9 (8.46)

- Blue Jays/Yankees o8.5 (8.96)

- Rays/Rockies u13 (12.55)

- Mets/Reds o9 (9.27)

- Padres/Giants o8 (8.20)

- Red Sox/Angels u8.5 (8.36)

- Astros/Rangers u10 (9.91)

2024 Model: 12-11 overall

2024 Totals: 34-32 overall

Link to the spreadsheet is below

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MqgFXC2Kiwq_qVLMEAyWyoyb4i6GYalTa8_eJ2Di8tM/edit?usp=sharing

Two model totals on deck tonight. 

Model totals went 1-4 overall yesterday.

All projections went 5-8 yesterday.

4/4/24 - Projected totals: 

Model Totals: (nX projection)

- White Sox/Royals o8 (9.59)

- Marlins/Cardinals o8.5 (9.26)

Non Model Totals: (nX projection)

- Tigers/Mets u7.5 (6.90) GM1

- Tigers/Mets u7.5 (7.18) GM2

- Guardians/Twins o7 (7.45)

- Pirates/Nationals o8.5 (8.77)

2024 Model: 10-11 overall

2024 Totals: 30-30 overall

Model totals went 3-1 yesterday. 

All projections went 8-5 overall yesterday. 

Model plays improve to 9-7 on the season

All projections improve to 25-22 on the season

4/3/24 - Projected totals: 

Model Totals: (nX projection)

- Rockies/Cubs o7.5 (9.29)

- Reds/Phillies o7.5 (8.98)

- Pirates/Nationals o8.5 (9.57)

- Rangers/Rays o8 (8.99)

- Royals/Orioles o7.5 (8.46)

- Braves/White Sox o8.5 (9.31)

Non Model Totals: (nX projection)

- Red Sox/A's o8 (8.62)

- Guardians/Mariners o7.5 (7.95)

- Cardinals/Padres o8.5 (8.69)

- Tigers/Mets u7.5 (7.34)

- Yankees/Dbacks u8.5 (8.34)

- Giants/Dodgers o8.5 (8.65)

- Blue Jays/Astros o8.5 (8.62)

- Twins/Brewers o8.5 (8.57)

- Angels/Marlins o8.5 (8.52)

2024 Model: 9-7 overall

2024 Totals: 25-22 overall

Model totals go 3-3-1 overall yesterday. Another split. 

All totals went 5-7 overall. There are 4 model totals on the slate today. 

4/2/24 - Projected totals: 

Model Totals: (nX projection)

- Reds/Phillies o8.5 (9.75)

- Rockies/Cubs o8 (9.18)

- Braves/White Sox o9 (9.84)

- Yankees/D-backs u9 (8.18)

Non Model Totals: (nX projection)

- Angels/Marlins o8.5 (9.06)

- Giants/Dodgers o8.5 (8.93)

- Royals/Orioles o8.5 (8.92)

- Rangers/Rays o8.5 (8.84)

- Twins/Brewers u8.5 (8.29)

- Blue Jays/Astros u8.5 (8.32)

- Tigers/Mets u7.5 (7.37)

- Red Sox/A's o8.5 (8.63)

- Cardinals/Padres u8 (7.89)

- Guardians/Mariners o7.5 (7.59)

2024 Model: 6-6 overall

2024 Totals: 17-17 overall

Link to the spreadsheet is below

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MqgFXC2Kiwq_qVLMEAyWyoyb4i6GYalTa8_eJ2Di8tM/edit?usp=sharing

Model totals split on Friday going 1-1 overall. All projected totals went 5-4-1 overall. 

Weekend projections will be 50/50. I tend to focus on family time on weekends. This weekend I didn't put anything out.

Model totals are 3-3 overall this season. All projected totals are 12-10 overall this season. 

4/1/24 - Projected totals: 

Model Totals: (nX projection)

- Rockies/Cubs o7.5 (9.09)

- Braves/White Sox o9 (10.50)

- Tigers/Mets o7.5 (8.87)

- Red Sox/A's u8.5 (7.29)

- Yankee's/Dbacks u10 (9.03)

- Pirates/Nationals o8.5 (9.42)

- Reds/Phillies o8.5 (9.42)

Non Model Totals: (nX projection)

- Giants/Dodgers o8.5 (9.09)

- Rangers/Rays u8.5 (7.98)

- BlueJays/Astros u9.5 (9.03)

- Guardians/Mariners o8 (8.46)

- Cards/Padres o8 (8.38)

- Royals/O's u8 (7.73)

- Angels/Marlins u8.5 (8.40)

2024 Model: 3-3 overall

2024 Totals: 12-10 overall

Link to the spreadsheet is below

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MqgFXC2Kiwq_qVLMEAyWyoyb4i6GYalTa8_eJ2Di8tM/edit?usp=sharing

Model totals go 2-2 overall yesterday. All projected totals go 7-6 overall. 

3/29/24 - Projected totals:

Model Totals: (nX projection)

- Braves/Phillies o7 (9.17)

- Rockies/Dbacks u9 (7.87)

Non Model Totals: (nX projection)

- Cardinals/Dodgers u9 (8.30)

- Brewers/Mets o7 (7.66)

- Blue Jays/Rays o8 (8.54)

- Giants/Padres o7.5 (7.88)

- Guardians/A's o7.5 (7.88)

- Red Sox/Mariners o7 (7.20)

- Pirates/Marlins o8.5 (8.63)

- Yankee's/Astros o9 (9.02)

2024 Model: 2-2 overall

2024 Totals: 7-6 overall

Link to the spreadsheet is below

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MqgFXC2Kiwq_qVLMEAyWyoyb4i6GYalTa8_eJ2Di8tM/edit?usp=sharing

I can't figure out how to get a screenshot of the projections in the post so here is a link to the spreadsheet for now.

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MqgFXC2Kiwq_qVLMEAyWyoyb4i6GYalTa8_eJ2Di8tM/edit#gid=0

These are my computer projected totals for every game. Playing the model plays at .5u until we compile more data. Here are the opening day numbers. 

Model plays must have a differential of 0.75 from the "Book Line" to my line. 

Opening day:

- Cubs/Rangers o8 

- Angels/Orioles o7.5/8 (ESPN Bet currently hanging a 7.5)

- Pirates/Marlins o7.5

- Twins/Royals o8.5 (there are some juiced 8's floating around)

Here are my projections for today's games. 

Looks like I have two model plays. 

Model Plays: 

- Nationals/Phillies o9

- Royals/Red Sox o10.5

The rest of the projections can be found on my google sheet. Let me know if you have any questions on how my projections/model plays work. Some of you may already know how they work. It's been awhile since I posted on here. 

MLB Public Sheet - Google Sheets

Plays went 2-3 overall last night for -0.55u. A's ML +165 came in huge.

There are 5 plays today. 4 ML plays and 1 total. I'm personally going to play these each for 1u. For tracking purposes I'll grade them as 1u each. If anyone tails you could put 0.5u on each dog to lower your liability.

For these big dogs I'm beginning to track RunLine +1.5 results, F5 ML results, and F5 spread results

Plays for today:

-- Nationals +225

-- Orioles +160

-- Tigers +225

-- Mariners +148

-- Angels/Mariners u7.5

Full projections can be found below

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OQChtkP2G1u-T7jzD0hH81e0vZuHQuWPBzqD9Umo7d8/edit#gid=0

Season Record:

Totals: 4-6 -2.6u

ML plays: 3-1 +4.57u

Overall: 7-7 +1.97u

Projections are done and I have 5 plays for tonight. 3 Totals and 2 ML.

Been fortunate to hit on two big ML's to start the season. Hoping for a split on these tonight at minimum.

Plays for today:

--Blue Jays/Royals o10

--Braves/Cardinals u10

--Angels/Mariners u7.5

--A's +165

--Rockies +235

Link to spreadsheet for the rest of the projections

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OQChtkP2G1u-T7jzD0hH81e0vZuHQuWPBzqD9Umo7d8/edit#gid=0

Season Record:

Totals: 3-4 -1.4u

ML plays: 2-0 +3.92u

Overall: 5-4 +2.52u

@newbs24

2-0 on the system plays tonight. Big hit on Tigers  +198.  

Back with two system plays for today 

--Giants/White Sox over 8 

--Tigers ML +198 

Link to spreadsheet for projections

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OQChtkP2G1u-T7jzD0hH81e0vZuHQuWPBzqD9Umo7d8/edit#gid=0

Season Record:

Totals: 3-4 -1.4u

ML plays: 2-0 +3.92u

Overall: 5-4 +2.52u

Hello all! 

Back with two system plays for today 

--Giants/White Sox over 8 

--Tigers ML +198

Giants/Sox I have projected runs at 9.65 and have the Astros as only -158 favorites. 

Good luck!

Season Record:

Totals: 2-4 -2.4u

ML plays: 1-0 +1.94u

Overall: 3-4 -0.46u

Plays yesterday went 2-3 overall. A's ML came in huge for +1.94u. Bravo to the A's.

I'm back with 2 plays tonight:

-- Rockies/Padres u8

-- Dbacks/Dodgers o7.5

I have Rockies/Padres projected at 6.49 runs and Dbacks/Dodgers projected at 9.18 runs.

You can see my full MLB betting sheet in the link below

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OQChtkP2G1u-T7jzD0hH81e0vZuHQuWPBzqD9Umo7d8/edit#gid=0

Season Record:

Totals: 1-3 -2.3u

ML plays: 1-0 +1.94u

Overall: 2-3 -0.36u

Happy Opening Day!

I'm going to share the link to my projections as well as post my plays here. I run my own simulations/projections and then compare my lines to Vegas lines. I'll recommend a play on every total but not every side. MODEL plays are highlighted in Yellow on the spreadsheet. I personally play every MODEL play. If you have any questions regarding how the sheet works don't hesitate to ask. I'm sharing my MLB Betting Sheet in hopes some of you can use it as a tool to your own handicap. Hope to share some winners.

5 plays for today

-- Giants/Yankees o6.5

-- Orioles/Red Sox o8.5

-- Mets/Marlins u7

-- Tigers/Rays o6.5

-- A's +194

The link to my spreadsheet is below. Use this link for the remainder of the season. I'll have a new tab created for each day.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OQChtkP2G1u-T7jzD0hH81e0vZuHQuWPBzqD9Umo7d8/edit?usp=sharing

Thank you and good luck!

10 plays triggered for tonight!

OPERATION OVERS - 3/2

Hawaii/CS Northridge o126.5

Wright St/Milwaukee o161

Rutgers/Minnesota o126.5

Morgan St/Coppin St o152.5

North Texas/MTSU o121.5

Pepperdine/Pacific o161.5

San Diego/Portland o158

Rider/St. Peters o126.5

SEMO/Tenn St o158

Youngstown St/Detroit o156.5

System Record: 79-43

Forum Record: 18-13

If you tail or fade any of these, good luck!

Plays went 2-2 last night. Major conference overs move to 14-3 on these system plays. Will have today's plays out shortly.

OPERATION OVERS - 3/1

Chicago St/Gonzaga o152.5 (WIN)

SE Louisiana/Hou Christian o162 (LOSS)

Providence/Xavier o153.5 (WIN)

SIUE/So. Indiana o151.5 (LOSS)

System Record: 79-43

Forum Record: 18-13

Back today with 4 system plays. 

Small school overs: 36-17

Mid-major overs: 29-21

Major overs: 13-3

OPERATION OVERS - 3/1

Chicago St/Gonzaga o152.5

SE Louisiana/Hou Christian o162

Providence/Xavier o153.5

SIUE/So. Indiana o151.5

If you tail or fade, good luck to you!

System Record: 77-41

Forum Record: 16-11

@newbs24

These plays went 1-1 yesterday. Just missed Eastern Michigan/Bowling Green by a bucket. Running the model now and will update with today's picks. 

Forum record moves to 16-11, overall system record is 77-41. 

OPERATION OVERS - 2/28

Eastern Michigan/Bowling Green o158 (LOSS)

Buffalo/Northern Illinois o155 (WIN)

System Record: 77-41

Forum Record: 16-11

I have two system overs tonight.Looks like both plays are in the MAC. Good luck if you tail or fade! 

OPERATION OVERS - 2/28

Eastern Michigan/Bowling Green o158

Buffalo/Northern Illinois o155

System Record: 76-40

Forum Record: 15-10