CD Newsletter week #2

OK kids, peruse the musings of an uninformed gambler ...

Thursday night
Buff @ Miami 2.5, 50.5
Bills off an uninspired win over the Cards, where they spotted Ari a 17-3 lead before waking up.

Statistically Buffalo outplayed the Cards, but they were sloppy in the process. Typical Bills game.

Fins had their hands full with Jax, and only won because Jags RB Etienne fumbled the ball when Jax was about to take a 17 point lead. Miami had better stats, highlighted by their 319-139 advantage in air yards. I still believe that T Lawrence is no better than a mid level QB.

Bills have won 10 of the last 11 games between these 2 teams.
Fins are 9-2 in their last 11 @ home.
This sets up as a shootout

LVR @ Ravens 9.5, 41.5
That¡¯s a low total for a game with such a large spread.

Please do not mention the ol¡¯ west coast team traveling east for an early kickoff angle as an argument for making a bet. I¡¯m pretty sure the line makers have already taken it into account.
I will leave all talk of this game to our resident ¡®know it all¡¯, and resident ¡®stay above the fray¡¯ Raven fans.

SD 6, 39.5 @ Car
The SD Icons travel to Carolina to take on the hapless Panthers.

SD beat the Radah¡¯s 22-10, but the score is not indicative of the closeness of the game. Chargers out rushed LV 176-71 and won the turnover battle 3-0. Is there any doubt who the HC is?

I almost have the Panthers as an auto fade, but Harbaugh is playing a style of football that is conducive to playing closer games.

NO @ Dal 6.5, 46.5
Saints blew out the aforementioned hapless Panthers. Color me unimpressed.

Meanwhile the Cowboys traveled to Cleveland and dominated a decent Browns team who has a really good defense and some weapons on offense, albeit with a shitty QB. (and now I will explain why this line is 6.5, or 7)

The story of the game was the Cowboys defense. They were everywhere, and Watson paid a physical price because of it. Unbeknownst to bigred, Dallas has added some quality pieces to their defense, and they showed up on Sunday. ALL Pro CB Blands injury was a concern when it happened, but 5th round rookie Caelon Carson was not only good filling in for Bland he was exceptional. He held Cooper to 2 catches for a few yards, almost had a few picks, and just played extremely tight coverage all game.
Many of the other Dallas rookies played very well, including DE Kneeland, LBer Liafau, and the 2 who started on the O-Line in Beeber and Guyton. Also of note was the play of LBer Overshown. He was tearing up Cowboys camp and preseason last year as a rookie, but got hurt in the last preseason game and missed the entire year. He was all over the field yesterday, and if you haven¡¯t seen the replay of him sacking a running Watson, where Overshown ran by Micah as if he was in mud, then do yourself a favor and YouTube that play. This kid is a menace and was the fastest player on either team. Cowboys defense is very talented at all 3 levels.

Cowboys offense played well against a very good defense who had tight coverage most of the game. Zeke looked invigorated and ran with a purpose, although I was against him resigning and remain doubtful. Give their O-line with the 2 rookies some time to gel and they will be a top tier unit.

No report on Dallas is complete without mentioning FG kicker Aubrey. Simply the best. Their Special Teams are all solid, and Turbin is always a threat to take one to the house as he did yesterday.

TB @ Det 6, 51
Rematch of last years playoff game where the Bucs gave the Lions all they could handle, although Det prevailed in the end.

Bucs let an undermanned WFT hang around before pulling away late. Skins O-Line was atrocious, and had rookie QB Daniels running for his life. The kid looked so-so throwing the ball, but was a weapon as a runner ¡­ kinda like LJ.

Mayfield is a better QB than what I have given him credit for. He has found a home in TB, and has control of that offenses scheme.

Lions beat the Rams in an OT thriller. What caught my attention was the physicality of Detroit in the trenches. They beat up and pushed around the Rams at times.

INDY 3.5, 41 @ GB
How many points is a QB worth? As per this line, at least 7 when that QB is Love.

Indy lost to a very good Texans team 29-27, but that game was not as close as the score.

When a team loses it¡¯s starting QB, as GB has, they tend to lean on their running game. Worth noting that the Colts gave up 213 yards rushing on Sunday. TWO THIRTEEN, that¡¯s a lot of yards.

Cle @ Jax 4, 41.5
Browns got spanked on Sunday, while the Getty¡¯s fumbled away a W in Miami.

I remain unimpressed by Trevor Lawrence, but next to Watson he is a HOFer.

Browns defense is better than the Jags. For a week 2 game, feels like both teams really need a win here.

SF 5.5, 45.5 @Minn
Not much to say on the 9ers until they play their MNF game.

I did not watch a single minute of the Vikings-Monte¡¯s game, nor will I. Talk about ugly QB play. Although something to be said for winning 28-6 OTR.

Sea 3.5, 38 @ NE
Seahawks are the last of the 4 west coast teams playing at 1:00 this week. (it¡¯s already factored into the line, so please find a different flawed reason as to why you bet on a certain team)

Pats held Cinci to 224 yards of offense, although they only gained 290 themselves.
Brisset is a serviceable game manager at QB. Stevenson has a big game running the ball for the Pats, and is an underrated RB.

Bo Nix threw the ball 42 times for 138yds, 0 TD¡¯s and 2 INT¡¯s. That¡¯s dreadful. Problem was the Broncos could not get their running game going.

This total is set at 38, and unless it drops to under 31 I strongly suggest that Cyrax stay away from this one.

NYJ 4, 42 @ Tenn
Titans only had 244yds of offense on Sunday ¡­ amazingly they still out gained the TW¡¯s by 100yds. YIKES!

Tenn lost because of a blocked punt, a pick 6, and losing the turnover battle 3-1.
No comments on the Jets pending MNF

NYG @ WFT 2.5, 43.5
Jayden Daniels did not look great on Sunday, but this week plays against a QB who looked even worse. I believe Daniels will be a star in this league, and Daniel will be out of the league in a couple of years.

Perhaps Monte will chime in on his G-Men ,,,,,,, if he does ,,,,,,,,,,,,,, it will look ,,,,,,,, like this ¡­¡­.
I have no feel for this game, but know that NY has won 8 of the last 10, and has traditionally owned the Skins ¡­ but I can not justify a play on NY right now

Rams 1.5, 50.5 @ Ari
Rams off an OT loss playing in Detroit, while the Cards lost by 6 in a shootout in Buffalo (I swear they did not lose because of the west coast team playing at 1:00 fallacy)

Even though the game was competitive the Rams were man handled by the Lions, which surprised me.

Harrison Jr only had 1 catch for 4 yds. He and Kyler better get on the same page soon.
I sense that the redbirds are a scrappy bunch this year. Probably won¡¯t make the playoffs, but they will be a difficult opponent for many better teams.

Need to check the injury status of Puka

Cin @ KC 6, 48.5
This line suggests that Jamarr Chase is playing this week. Burrow only threw for 164 yds without him, and this Chiefs secondary is better than NE¡¯s.

X Worthy and his elite speed is a game changer, and makes this entire Chiefs offense better.

Am I the only sensing the Bengals window of opportunity is starting to close?

Pitt 3, 37 @ Den
I bet against Steelers on Sunday believing that Wilson was QBing (currently I need to place my bets by Saturday night as I¡¯m not available to on Sundays until about 1:30) Fields played a clean game for the Steelers, but they won because they won the turnover game 3-0, and it is very obvious that Cousins has not fully recovered from his achilles injury.

Broncos lost @ Seattle in a game where neither team truly deserved to win, it was more of a case of who deserved to lose less.

This snooze fest has the lowest total of the week.

Chi @ Hou 6.5, 46
In a tilt between two undefeated heavyweights with playoff implications ¡­¡­ (ok, that was for TW)

This is a good barometer game for Da Bears, on the road vs a really good team.

Is Chicago¡¯s run defense really as suspect as it was against the Titans? If so, they are in for a spanking.

The Texans are one of the best teams in the NFL, and CJ Stroud has arrived.

Atl @ Philly 6.5, 48 MNF
I got nothing positive to say about the Falcons. Not only did Cousins look old, but from what I read they had him in pistol formation for half the game. That is not only a formation that Cousins has limited experience with, it¡¯s a formation that he has horrible stats from. Typical case of a coach trying to squeeze a player into his system, as opposed to a system that plays to the strength of that player.

Eagles slipped and slided their way to a win over GB in Brazil. They sealed the win with a long drive that was helped by 2 defensive penalties which kept the drive going. Game was fairly evenly played. Hurts threw 2 picks and fumbled twice, losing one. Saquon had a good 1st game with his new team, and AJ Brown had a big night.
Philly or nothing.

He played 40 plays....

But this was a great write up

on these games....

Nice work Hugh . Although slight correction . Chase played last week which makes the Bengals performance more dreadful 

Well done, Hugh. 

Puka is out at least 4 weeks. He was placed on IR-R.

In fairness I believe they were missing other top receivers cant think of his name Digby or Bill Bixby 

I knew he played, I had a brain fart

@Hugh_Jorgan

 Decent effort, given the limited information, an uninformed gambler has.

Hugh, you¡¯ve got to work for a newspaper or magazine.  Extraordinary writing skills!

Yup, Higgins dnp

Bill Cosby

I¡¯m already  looking at the Buff/ Miami over 50.5 . The only thing I don¡¯t like about it is it¡¯s on Thursday . I¡¯m staying away from all the Patriots game unless deemed necessary. 
Great write up Hugh 

@Hugh_Jorgan

 Ive noticed you have received a lot more hand jobs than I got. Thoughts on doing it permanently ?

I'm fading all the west coast teams that are traveling east for a 1PM kickoff. (insert sarcasm)

Excellent work old chap, mighty fine indeed.

Good Job Hugh.

Read an interesting stat on Joe Burrow. He's 1-8 in his career in weeks 1 and 2. They had the qbr and stats along with it and they were dreadful. 

Then somehow the light bulb goes on. I say we back him in week 3.

The Bears run D looks bad on paper, 140 yards. But it was mostly in the 1H. In the 2nd half the Titans didn't cross the 50 once, and scored 0 points. The Titans rushed 11 times for 25 yards in the 2H.

If the Bears get spanked, it will be on the other side of the ball. Caleb Williams looks shorter than listed, perhaps it's because he's up against real men in the nfl. He had multiple balls batted down at the line. Rome Odunze might not play, mri on his knee today. The Bears are still not right at the center position. Perhaps tip your cap to the Titans, their interior D line is very good.

The Bears have the best punter in the nfl, and he wears the right size shoe.

You said that Indy gave up 213 rush yards, and rightfully so. The Packers gave up 144 to the Eagles. I see nothing but handoffs in this game, and a running clock. Cyrax, beware. The total of 41 seems right at a glance, but could see it landing around 34 in a no sweat under.

The qb play in this league seems to be diminishing year after year, with a few bright spots. Kind of amazing with how the rules protect the qb's and wr's these days. 

That's all I got for now.

This guy is writing as he¡¯s thinking and it¡¯s a wonderful symphony.  

I guarantee Hugh writes for a living.  

I can see him writing his initials in pee every night on the beach all fucked up also 

@trainwreck66

 I know he likes to throw bread crumbs on fat guys sunning on the seashore.  The flock of seagulls cause quite a stir!

He knows he can out run them!

Despite winning handily the Cowboys OL allowed the 2nd fastest pressure rate on passing downs this week (only Oakland was worse). Meanwhile David Carr's brother easily had the most time to throw of all QBs (against the hopeless Panthers) . This is such a dead nuts under. U 45.5 

Huge, well done!!h. Where you schooled in the Northeast? Great writing skills and on point. Good luck going forward.

Thoughts? Yes, my thought is 'are you out of your fuckin mind?'

I will write my share.

Thank you everyone for the kind words

Schooled in the northeast, however I have a 9th grade education.

I am reasonably well read, and mostly self taught.

@Cranky_Hank

No, never wrote for a living.

Been a business owner my entire life

Buffalo / Dolphins Over 49  (25u )