CD Newsletter Week 15

@Cyrax

 

 Love the write ups agree with Denver and over bills and balty will have there way and we are looking good on tanking the season so we get first round pick hopefully upper management chooses wisely  

Even though they are off a bye, doesn't it feel like the Commanders -7.5 is too high? At the dome in Nola, just doesn't feel right

 

The Ravens -15 otr might be the biggest road fav spread in how long? Does anyone know?

According to Troy Aikman, Mike Mccarthy will keep his j o b, wonder how Ole Hugh feels about that 

Daniels old stomping grounds but yes I think its too much. 

I remember the Pats being -16 back in the day. 

Saw that ¡° commercial ¡° with Troy Aikman and Joe Buck during last night¡¯s telecast and instantly knew that is was some bullshit advertisement because Troy didn¡¯t have his trusty pen in his hand to comfort him like he always does .

That Linus with his blanket havin¡¯ motherfucker ¡­¡­.

nice try Troy . How about you grow up and finally learn to relax , and where you should put your hands . 

Without Carr...

I've been the biggest Commanders promoter since the off season. Only 2-1 on them ats this year cause I'm stupid and didn't just bet then every game from the get go.

But regardless, 7.5 points otr against anyone is a tough bet imo. I don't know maybe they smoke the Saints. The Saints at 5-8 on playoff life support 

2 other strong lines otr...

Jets -3.5 at Jax...just stop it all ready book makers. Or they are brilliant because they have ROBBED sharp $ on em all year.

Falcons -4.5 at Vegas. Who in their right mind will bet on Cousins. Gotta be Pennix time right?

@undermysac

 Check out some feller named Biscuit play in NFL forum, sounds good,and I bet that dude is a smart handsome manly man. 

They were and are going to spend most of the day running the ball, Skins too probably.

I want to make it less boring for you, Cyrax! So, here's some cursory thoughts...

The Chargers are 4-2 at home. Their losses at home were to the Chiefs and the Ravens; both better teams than the Bucs. They play tough at home, and if it weren't for Dobbins existing the game early, maybe we'd see a different outcome in that Ravens game? (Not taking anything away from the Ravens, though. As mentioned, they are a good team.) The Buccs are also 4-2 playing away, but their away wins were against the Panthers, Giants, Saints, and Lions (2nd game of the season). I would give the home-vs-away advantage to the Chargers. They have developed a home crowd that can disrupt snap counts, so that's improvement in my book. 

It's really going to be about the Chargers Def vs Buccs Off. 

Both teams possess a middle of the pack run defense, but the Chargers have a top 8 pass defense and the Buccs a bottom 4. Mayfield has thrown the 2nd most interceptions this year, after Kirk Cousins. (In stark contrast, Justin Herbert has only thrown 1 interception all year, although in part because he's been asked to throw less than in years past.) In the Chargers favor, they are tied for 5th in interceptions. So I think the Chargers pass rush and ball control in the secondary will give Mayfield fits.

If the Chargers get McConkey back for this game -- and I think he'll be available -- they should find a lot of soft spots to throw into whatever coverage the Buccs use. Antoine Winfield Jr. (Safety) is also going to be out for a few weeks, starting with this game. Bucky Irving may be out, too. Winfield being out is huge.

-to be continued

I usually never say "Chargers Large," but my first instinct is to say the ML @ -155 would be a large bet, and -3 at -108 (in my book) is a medium size bet. The Chargers have a great starting unit, but their depth situation is rough. So I never really place anything on a Chargers game until I know which starters are in or out.

The only hesitance I have is that there's a TNF game against the Broncos the next week. I don't think Harbaugh has the team looking ahead on their schedule, but the Broncos game is a much more important one to win (in conference, and more importantly, in division). The Broncos are right behind the Chargers in playoff seeding and the Broncos have a much easier matchup this week. They're both sitting with an 8-5 record. So I think the vets on defense (Mack, Bosa, Derwin) will have the team hyper-focused in this game. Last week's loss didn't sell with any of them. They'll be back out there hungry and Mayfield is an easier target than Mahomes.

Apparently my cursory thoughts turned into a dissertation. 

Good job on the CD Newsletter. 

Man, this week's slate of games is much better than last week. 

My favorites (not necessarily for betting purposes) are:

Steelers vs. Eagles
Bills vs Lions

But heads up. I'll be rooting against anybody's bets in favor of the Broncos. 

@iConsciousness

 That Bucs win at the Lions in week 2 I remember very well. I was on the Bucs +7 or +7.5, and I was lucky as fuck to cover. That box score was absurd, take a look if you want.

I'm on the Broncos -3.5. The Colts are gonna have a rough go.

If the Broncos and Chargers win, then that TNF game is going to be huge.

 

I agree. The Broncos should win that game handily. I don't understand the line at all here, but I haven't taken a look at any possible injuries affecting the line. While I'd be more than happy for them to lose, I'll probably put money on them as well. It'll be one of those win-win situations if I'm not tying up too much money on it.

Something to add to that TNF matchup next week. Chargers beat the Broncos in Denver earlier this season. But both teams have evolved since then; moreso the Broncos. There WILL be a Broncos presence at SoFi. I don't even think it's a case of many travelling for the game. (LA still has a lot of fans who live here that root for other teams; the vagaries of having no NFL team in this city for 22 years.)

It'll also be a matchup between two former Oregon Ducks -- Herbert vs. his successor, Nix. Both are high IQ QBs with wheels. Both come from Sac's favorite college football conference. Neither QB wants to lose this game.

Your management is on the same sinking boat as Sac  , I doubt they will make a smart decision unless the owner start cleaning house. From the player's perspective , they just want the season to end and get the hell out of dodge. Leader's lead  , Soldier follow . The owner needs to get a real leader in the organization that everyone can respect and willing to fight for.

 

@iConsciousness  - something tells me that the Broncos will try to get a big lead in the 1H so that they can rest their starters for the showdown on Thursday night.

 

 

My bets so for :

Broncos -3.5  -  Max Bet

AZ -6

Bills / Lions Over 54.5   - waiting for the public to bet it down to below 52 , then I'll make it a Cy Special

 

@Cyrax

 

 I agree 100% like the halos management I can put together a better baseball team but now no one wants to come play in Anaheim it’s cursed but Back to football I hope they clean house 

@Cyrax 

What's going to happen to Jo Adell? He can't seem to get over the hump. I have a few of his rookie cards slabbed and autographed. Was hoping he'd turn into the stud the organization had hoped he would be. But ... it is the Arte Moreno-owned Angels. (Free Mike Trout!)

 

 

every fan I talk to wants arty to sell the team including me we had Ohtani and trout and still couldn¡¯t put a team together around them they have always got used up players and pay big money for them but this last year I know they lost a lot of games but they actually played better were in some games and the bullpen was better still gave it up but not like years Before don¡¯t know if you saw that most people didn¡¯t sell and clean I just want a descent season it¡¯s been so long 

Granted this was a weak push off, but the Chiefs get away with the ticky tack calls that the Chargers always get when they play each other. Even Kelce owns up to 'em.

https://x.com/krisrhim1/status/1866547888765145303

You need to do CD Newsletter week 17 

Boilmonte , Michelobmonte , BRtout , Burntcake, BRcarpet ?