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CD Newsletter Week 13

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bigred84

MVP

Joined: Jan, 2016

Posts: 19314

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 6:31 PM ET #251

Bernie Kosar.... peace_5

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Cranky_Hank

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2017

Posts: 4358

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 6:37 PM ET #252

Quote Originally Posted by hungkungfoooey:

@Cranky_Hank these alt line bets are just small bets, do I think there is a chance cle can get blown out?,,,,fuck yeah,,,,,,

Denver still -6.5 -102 at FanDuel. It seems there��s a late push on Denver. They scrimmaged Green Bay this summer and held their own. I think they can control The Browns.

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undermysac

Legend

Joined: Dec, 2014

Posts: 48283

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 6:48 PM ET #253

Not only is McCaffrey going on IR, so is Jordan Mason. And d lineman Kevin Givens.

Mash unit

paint_help

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Cranky_Hank

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2017

Posts: 4358

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 6:50 PM ET #254

@undermysac

SF was pushing all their players last night.

The icy field conditions took their toll on the walking wounded.

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iConsciousness

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 3932

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 6:51 PM ET #255

Quote Originally Posted by Cranky_Hank:

Quote Originally Posted by hungkungfoooey: @Cranky_Hank these alt line bets are just small bets, do I think there is a chance cle can get blown out?,,,,fuck yeah,,,,,, Denver still -6.5 -102 at FanDuel. It seems there’s a late push on Denver. They scrimmaged Green Bay this summer and held their own. I think they can control The Browns.

I'm mentally on the Broncos winning this. Monetarily, I'm invested in the Broncos ML on a parlay.

The line is at -7 on my book. It was at -6.5 earlier in the day. I would've loved this mythical (?) -5.5, though. However, once bottom feeder teams seem to be playing closer games now and covering the spread. Browns still have a good defense (although I haven't checked the injury report) and they actually have a quarterback who can keep you in games. I'm content with what I have on the line already, but if anyone has any compelling arguments either way, I'm all ears.

EDIT: It's -7, but at +105. I just noticed that they have an "Adjusted Lines" option, in a separate section. Nothing I like too much though.

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iConsciousness

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 3932

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 6:55 PM ET #256

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Not only is McCaffrey going on IR, so is Jordan Mason. And d lineman Kevin Givens. Mash unit

*insert Brandon Staley brought the injury curse with him to the 49ers joke*

But, really, something's going on with all them California teams, as the Chargers and Rams are all "working through something," as Jim Harbaugh would say.

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undermysac

Legend

Joined: Dec, 2014

Posts: 48283

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 7:02 PM ET #257

Week 14 look ahead bets:

Bears +6(-110) *3.30/3.00

Bears ML(+205) *1.00/2.05

Chargers +4(-108) *2.00/1.85

Chargers ML(+180) *.50/.90

Locked in

Chiefs get their first loss of the season.

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undermysac

Legend

Joined: Dec, 2014

Posts: 48283

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 7:07 PM ET #258

@iConsciousness

I hate the line movement from 2 weeks ago till today on the Broncos and Browns game. As I, everyone here, the public, and their grandma's all have the Broncos kicking the Browns ass. And they should.

Then why did they drop it to 5.5 after the -7 look ahead lines? It was obviously going to get back to 7 and most books have.

The books will need the Browns big time tonight.

But hopefully it doesn't matter at all.

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trainwreck66

Legend

Joined: Feb, 2013

Posts: 32375

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 7:10 PM ET #259

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Week 14 look ahead bets: Bears +6(-110) *3.30/3.00 Bears ML(+205) *1.00/2.05 Chargers +4(-108) *2.00/1.85 Chargers ML(+180) *.50/.90 Locked in Chiefs get their first loss of the season.

?

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iConsciousness

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 3932

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 7:13 PM ET #260

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Week 14 look ahead bets: Bears +6(-110) *3.30/3.00 Bears ML(+205) *1.00/2.05 Chargers +4(-108) *2.00/1.85 Chargers ML(+180) *.50/.90 Locked in Chiefs get their first loss of the season.

I love your enthusiasm, and it's engrained in the Chargers DNA to always play the Chiefs tough. They got the horses on defense to win this, despite the injuries. And maybe Denzel Perryman and Cam Hart come back for this.

I'm worried about the offense though. Ladd McConkey got banged up with a shoulder injury and Harbaugh gave the usual "he's working through something" response when reporters asked about him. I'm not sure where the offense comes from. I'm surprised the Chargers are only at +4 playing in Arrowhead, though. Ballsy bet, and can honestly say I love it.

I read about your Bears angle. It's not like they're not in all of their games until the very end, so they're bound to pop one of those close games in the win column.

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iConsciousness

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 3932

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 7:16 PM ET #261

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

@iConsciousness I hate the line movement from 2 weeks ago till today on the Broncos and Browns game. As I, everyone here, the public, and their grandma's all have the Broncos kicking the Browns ass. And they should. Then why did they drop it to 5.5 after the -7 look ahead lines? It was obviously going to get back to 7 and most books have. The books will need the Browns big time tonight. But hopefully it doesn't matter at all.

If the Browns have an answer to Nix, then they most certainly can keep it close. Nix can beat you with his legs, so they'll have to contain those edges. He throws smartly, from what I've observed. He's only thrown 6 interceptions. I haven't looked up when those were thrown, but he's grown since the Chargers played them earlier in the season, so if most of those were earlier on, then that's some insight on how well he protects the ball. I suspect a lot of his scrambles are when protection breaks down or he sees nothing downfield.

One thing I can say, throughout most of this football betting season, the obvious bet turns out to be the one that really does win at the end. Just like most of the forum overthinking the Bills-49ers game last night.

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trainwreck66

Legend

Joined: Feb, 2013

Posts: 32375

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 7:32 PM ET #262

This is all you need tonight

Chubb TD / Browns +7.5 / Nix O? INT / O37.5

+686

peace_5

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undermysac

Legend

Joined: Dec, 2014

Posts: 48283

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 7:52 PM ET #263

@trainwreck66

I meant at home

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Cranky_Hank

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2017

Posts: 4358

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 9:08 PM ET #264

Browns passing game is working.

If I could, I might try to buy out of Denver minus the points.

I can��t though.

I made my bed.

an_clap

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iConsciousness

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 3932

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 9:27 PM ET #265

Expect a low scoring 2h, according to this:

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/2nd-half-points-per-game

It makes me think whoever has the lead at the end of the first half will win this game, barring any significant injuries.

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iConsciousness

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 3932

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 10:01 PM ET #266

TOTAL u21?-103 (2H CLE BROWNS vrs 2H DEN BRONCOS)

Let's go small here. $52 to win $50.

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Cyrax

Hall of Fame

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 25956

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 10:02 PM ET #267

2h :

Broncos -1 (10u )

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iConsciousness

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 3932

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 10:04 PM ET #268

Quote Originally Posted by Cyrax:

2h : Broncos -1 (10u )

an_cheers GL

I'm going to add a parlay -- Broncos ML/2H under $25 to win $62

So two plays total:

TOTAL u21½-103 (2H CLE BROWNS vrs 2H DEN BRONCOS) - $52/$50
Broncos ML+2H under $25/$62

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Cyrax

Hall of Fame

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 25956

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 10:28 PM ET #269

Quote Originally Posted by iConsciousness:

Quote Originally Posted by Cyrax: 2h : Broncos -1 (10u ) GLI'm going to add a parlay -- Broncos ML/2H under $25 to win $62So two plays total:TOTAL u21?-103 (2H CLE BROWNS vrs 2H DEN BRONCOS) - $52/$50Broncos ML+2H under $25/$62

peace_5

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iConsciousness

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 3932

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 10:33 PM ET #270

Uh, so you're telling me both offenses decided to have explosive drives?

Nix-to-Mims: 98 yard TD
Winston-to-Jeudy: 70 yard TD

And both occurring within less than a minute of each other. Goodnight to both those bets.

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Cyrax

Hall of Fame

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 25956

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 11:17 PM ET #271

Week 14 :

Vikings -5

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spockgato

All-Star

Joined: Apr, 2005

Posts: 14640

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 11:39 PM ET #272

Quote Originally Posted by trainwreck66:

This is all you need tonight Chubb TD / Browns +7.5 / Nix O½ INT / O37.5 +686

brutal beat if they don’t come down and score for you here .

You deserved the win . Moore falling asleep not making contact with that defender .

Yo !

P.I. !

BACK PATTING and KISSING threads are like passing HAM SANDWICHES around over and over-wall

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spockgato

All-Star

Joined: Apr, 2005

Posts: 14640

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 11:43 PM ET #273

God damn . Fuck that shit . Sorry man . Was rooting for that to hit .

BACK PATTING and KISSING threads are like passing HAM SANDWICHES around over and over-wall

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Cyrax

Hall of Fame

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 25956

Posted: Dec. 2, 2024 - 11:49 PM ET #274

Quote Originally Posted by Cyrax:

I��ll go with:

Broncos -6 (20u)

2h : Broncos -1 (10u )

win

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lbcake

Hall of Fame

Joined: May, 2005

Posts: 27041

Posted: Dec. 3, 2024 - 10:44 AM ET #275

win

0

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CD Newsletter Week 13

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