Tech angles/plays

1)  Home dogs of less than 7 points in week 16/17 that have lost at least three games in a row, that missed the playoffs the previous season....27-6 ATS

If their opponent has won more than one of their past three away games this moves to 13-1-1 ATS, 10-4 straight up,  beating the pointspread by 10.6 points per game on average and having a game margin of 7.4 points/game.

query text........tS(W, N=3) = 0 and line < 7 and month = 12 and week > 15 and tpS(playoffs) = 0 and HD and oS(W@A, N=3)> 1.0

ON Bears, Patriots

2)  A week 17 team as a dog or a favorite of less than 6 points that has a winning percentage of 83% or greater....5-20 ATS (-6.0), 6-19 straight up (-7.5)....AGAINST Lions, Vikings, Chiefs

query text.....................week=17 and tA(W)>.83 and line>-6

Plays:

1)  Patriots +5'

2)  Bears +3'

3)  Steelers +3

If no one important gets hurt tonight I will be on the Packers on the road at Minnesota as well.

3)  A week>15  away dog of less than six points that has lost at least three games in a row and missed the playoffs last season off an away dog loss....5-0 ATS (+5.3), 3-2 straight up.....ON Titans

tS(W, N=3) = 0 and month = 12 and week > 15 and tpS(playoffs) = 0 and D and line < 6 and site = away and p:ADL

4)  In a week>15 regular season game, a favorite who in their past three games, has had their defense  allow an average of greater than 380 yards/game.......69-106-4 ATS, (-2.6), VERSUS Chargers, Bills, Vikings, Lions

5)  A home dog of less than 7 points in week>15 who in their last three games have had a negative points margin of -10/game or more.....41-22 ATS, 31-32 straight up..........ON Browns, Bears

query text.......week > 15 and playoffs = 0 and tA(margin, N=3)<-10 and HD and line<7

Plays.....adding:

4)  Browns +6'

Thank you sir, pretty to watch.

allow an average of greater than 380 yards/game........................text?

Great work. Loving steelers and bears

tA(o:total yards, N=3)>380 or tA(o:TY, N=3)>380

Thx...is Thailand in your future?

Considering Chiang Mai, Colombia, Panama or Costa Rica....will move around April, 2025.

Plays.......adding:

5)  Packers +1.5, 2 units

________________________________

4)  Browns +6', 1 unit

3)  Bears +3', 1 unit

2)  Steelers +3, -115 1 unit

1)  Patriots +5', 1 unit

@Indigo999

 Packers with basically nothing to play for next week...pretty much locked in the 6 seed

Week 17 scenarios to follow

If minne wins Sunday lions can rest starters Monday night....week 18 showdown with minne for division and #1 seed 

If den and lac win Saturday then ind and mia would be eliminated and have nothing to play for Sunday 

Looking like nfcw will come down to the lar/sea game week 18

Gb basically locked into the 6 seed with win tonight. Can reduce starter snaps last 2 weeks

Hou basically locked into 4 seed. Could get 3 seed but unlikely . Could rest starters from here on out

If kc wins on Xmas day bills can rest starters if they don't care about 2 or 3 seed 

Good stuff man

Doctor Bob has said that in his research that teams in a "must-win" situation at the end of the season cover 31% of the time.

Obviously they play tight and those with nothing to play for don't.

I am on the Packers this week, and I'll be on them in the playoffs....I think they are the best team in the NFC, and teams with the best record often don't get to the promised land, or at least they don't cover....case in point last year, the 49ers had a dominant regular season and were fortunate to even win their games that they also didn't cover versus the Packers and Lions.

Obviously I can't read the Packers' coaching staff minds, but they have lost to the Vikings once and the Lions twice this season.....if I'm them, I want to beat the Vikings because I have a young team that I want them to  believe that they have what it takes to beat a team that has had a better season than they have.

College bowl angle....

6)  Play ON a December bowl underdog that won three or less  games the previous season before week 19.....54-22 ATS (+4.6), 37-39 straight up (-2.3)....ON Louisiana Tech, East Carolina, Vandy, UConn.

If their defense allows less points/game  than their present opponent, those teams have gone 25-8 ATS (+4.1), 19-13 (-2.0) straight up ......ON Vandy, East Carolina, UConn

query text.....tpS(W) < 4 and game type = BG and month = 12 and D and week < 19 and   tA(o:points)<oA(o:points)

@Indigo999

correct query text from thread #13.....tpS(W) < 4

and

game type = BG

and

month = 12 and

D and

week < 19

and   tA(o:points)

<

oA(o:points)

.

@dubz4dummyz

 Lets keep the scenarios accurate here for the sake of the gamblers. GB wins out MN loses out (possible). GB could be 5 (more common game wins).

HOU can absolutely be the 3. They win both and PIT loses one of two. They may not care about that but its still there and not that difficult to see

In the end its week 17 not 18 and teams are going to play. Yes if there is a ding during these games maybe those players get pulled but they will play

They aren't must-win scenarios...

They are resting starters/reducing snaps scenarios....hou just lost tank dell for the year...doubt they wanna lose more starters

My post is accurate

Hou is basically locked into the 4....they cam get the 3 but if Stroud goes down with a  injury the season is lost

Gb is pretty much locked into the 6 seed....they can get the 5 seed but is it worth it to lose Love for the season to injury..or a other important starter 

Lions should rest all starters if minne wins Sunday...0 point in risking injury when week 18 vs minne would be for division and the #1 seed

@pistolatl495

 Simply put

Hou is already locked into a home playoff game as the 4 or 3 seed

Gb is locked into a road playoff game as the 6 or 5 seed...

Risking injury at this point seems like a poor decision....GB already hauled starters outta the 34-0 blowout last night ..could see that continue

Small but 0-4 S/U and 3 games fit this week (Pats,Browns,NYG) play against

week=17 and p:L and pp:L and ppp:L and op:W and opp:L and month=12 and season>2014 and total<50

Indigo (Pamana, were going to get it back or take it back anyway) Reno?

To all who believe God bless and have a Merry Christmas (closest thing to a Christmas Ornament)

Seahawks and Chargers and by some small miracle the Dolphins may all "need to win", while the Bears, Patriots and Browns have "nothing to play for".....it doesn't change my plays.  Actually I would probably make it a two unit play if the Dolphins by the end of the week are eliminated from a playoff spot going into their game at Cleveland.

The Vikings need to win if they want to win number 1 seed.  I doubt the Packers will be sitting guys with two weeks left.  I would wonder about the following week that a team that has wrapped up their playoff seed would rest guys,....those are the games where teams deliberately tank a game.

The Packers could, as mentioned get the 5 seed if they win out and the Vikings lose both games.  And, the 5th seed would draw the NFC South winner, a better scenario than probably playing the NFC West winner.

Regardless, if the Packers put Willis out there at qb, I am still fine with the play.

@Indigo999

 Packers win next week.....bol...

Bears

Patriots

Its so difficult to play on those. I happened to try Bryce n Carolina this Sunday got a hit. I realize my bias is strong and just looking at the pointspreads I agree. Aha oh yes that teams the fave and they are gonna crush em. If faves cover I can do ok. And oh do I get clobbered. Not ready to give up though.

Good thread is good. Thank you.