Sports Betting Discipline example on tonight’s game

Are the Dolphins your favorite team?

Are the Rams your favorite team?

Do you feel you MUST place a bet tonight because it¡¯s Monday Night?

If you answered Yes to any of these 3 questions you HAVE TO STAY AWAY from any bets on tonight¡¯s game. I know many of you reading this will think this is crazy but discipline starts by staying away from your favorite team because you¡¯re not being objective and if you feel you Must bet because simply it¡¯s Monday Night then you must really look at yourself as an impulsive bettor which 100% of the time leads to disaster.

Start working on healthy discipline tonight!

Generally I don't disagree.  However, in this instance my modeling has Miami -3.5 and the book has them +2.5, so I've got 6 points of value.

Pending subjective and line movement, +125 makes it a solid wager regardless of outcome.......for me.

@unplucked_gem

 Then it¡¯s fine to bet it. Your betting objectively.

What I meant by not betting on your favorite team I don¡¯t mean on your favorite team in this game but rather your favorite team in the NFL overall. Your home team.

I know one guy who thinks that the Ravens should be a minimum of -14 in every game

@undermysac

 That¡¯s a guy who has zero chance of making money in the long run. 

@TheMegaBombs

You forgot....

Eat your vegetables.

My old bookie was pretty well known throughout the Country met him by chance. He passed recently and one thing I always remember he would say  was " Don't bet on losers" I saw a few people on the Cowboys yesterday including you. I passed and sure enough the Cowboys didn't disappoint.

My favorite thing to do is bet against my favorite teams.  I’ve won a ton of money this year fading the shitty Seahawks after their fluke 3-0 start, the trash ass Washington Huskies, Seattle Kraken.  Sadly betting on the Mariners over the years is probably a huge red on my ledger.  

Preaching discipline to a bunch of action degenerates is a wasted effort, tho i applaud the message 

It's a staple tout move

@Betterthanu

 Yes that was the only loss in our 6 pick card. It happens

@TheMegaBombs

 Solid post....for me personally betting the Finz tonight as a homer which fits your model....fits my model no kidding, the bets I think have thee less chance to win....tend to be THEE ONLY WINNERS

@Win4Ever

 Very nice!

You came to a gambling forum on a Monday Night and said don¡¯t make a bet. 

Should we all go to Wednesday Night church as well? 

@NONEED4LUCK

 Amen

@NONEED4LUCK

 You need to pay a little more attention and not jump into conclusions.

i said if either the Dolphins or the Rams are your favorite team (your home team) or you¡¯re making a bet simply because it¡¯s Monday night then you shouldn¡¯t bet.

But it¡¯s just a comment. Have a great one

Not quite zero, but close.  I make my living on moving lines.  

Objective modeling identifies the games, then it becomes art as to how far to push it.  But usually north of 10 points (depending on line) gets you +300 and more which would need 25% to be profitable.

They've won 3-10 (33% by 10 or more).  Fully agree I wouldn't move every line to 14 though.  Same with the Bills who have won 5 by 10 or more.

@daytonavol

Also true #9

Great message 

Tell us buddy, how can we jump on these amazing picks?

@wmi799

Three easy payments of $1299.99, but act now and they'll chop one payment per card loss.

@wmi799

 One must be respectful of the rules and Covers does not allow us to publicize our social media. So I can¡¯t put them on here. Our is pretty easy to find though.

@unplucked_gem

 Is that joke that we are supposed to laugh at? 

@TheMegaBombs

 I post for my amusement not yours and yes it drew a chuckle.

We've seen this show before 

@unplucked_gem

 I¡¯ve been in the business 23 years. I don¡¯t do any type of show.