NFL Week 3...

Season Record:  -.75 unit
Sunday

Broncos +6.5 (3 units)
Ravens -1 (3 units)
Falcons +3.25 (3 units)
Giants +6.5 (2 units)
Lions -2.75 (2 units)

GL all

thanks van - I know you wrote a little about it in another thread but help me out w the falcons play. you put 1.5u on them +3 (-108 at DK) and another 1.5u on them +3.5 (-125 at DK) and why is this a good strategy? so that you at least win half the bet if it lands on 3 and mitigates the loss from the other side since 3 is so key?

@vabirdsfan

 +3 -102 at FD. 

look around 

Love the Broncos myself.  

Broncos have an insane secondary and as much as I like and respect mayfield and what he¡¯s become¡­..he¡¯s gonna have a hard time throwing on those guys so to win¡­.imo¡­.Tampa needs to run.   Not exactly their strong suit.  White might be banged up.   And forget the Tampa secondary which is destroyed with injuries.  Dont have time to get deep into it, but that¡¯s the short version.  

Love 7 if I can get it but 6 or 6.5 works.  GL 

Well, first thing is if those are your prices at DKs, dont bet at DKs.  Much better numbers out there.  

The idea of the .25 or .75 is to bring closer to -100.  Lots of lines around the 3 are either -3 +105, or -2.5 -118ish.  Everyone who posts it - if they are on the favorite they simply post -2.5, or if they are on the dog they simply post +3.  I think that is disingenuous to what I try to do.

So yes - half the bet goes on -2.5, half goes on -3.  It is actually a fair way to do it for me - and at the same time a smart way for bettors to do it also.

Bingo.  I got +3 +106 2 minutes ago.

Good post.

The Bucs run defense is decimated.  All 3 runstoppers have injuries, and Vea is out for sure.  I like my chances when Nix hopefully wont have to throw a lot.  Bucs have benefitted from some good fortune offensively, and the Broncos defense is no joke.

GL

@vanzack

 yep i shop em, just included in case you explained w a sample line. appreciate the walkthrough! what's your read on Atlanta? without that last drive and atrocious time management there at the end from Sirianni, this team's 0-2 and an ugly 0-2 at that

Nice card.

and survivor picks? Buffalo jumping out at me. Extra rest, Jax has regressed and see them being equally hungry for a W with 3 tough roadies. Situational angle here

@vanzack

 Now you're supporting our beloved Donkeys 

But  with Bo at helm, can they  WIN SU???

Good Luck this week..thx for posting Legend 

Good luck sir. I really like the Giants and Lions and was leaning Ravens too. I lost last week with the Giants and they really shouldve won that game. Who goes into a game without a backup kicking option when your guy is banged up. Unbelievable. Back to the well!

Thanks van. 

Lets goooo VZ ! 

 Bol Holmes

With ya on the Lions.

Good Luck 

Giants gonna be able to score on that browns d ? Feels like browns suffocate Jones and get some turnovers finally. Gotta think browns can put up 20 on this giants d.

I respectfully disagree with your Falcons' pick.  Mahomes plays his best on the road and here he'll do it in a cushy dome.  Mahomes after playing trash always comes back harder than ever to prove to people he's still him.  On top of that Falcons are riding high off a fluke win where they played a team with ZERO pass rush.  KC DLine will feast on statue Cousins.  It would not surprise me if KC is up 3 TDs by halftime.   

For both teams, this is a look-ahead game with an out-of-conference foe, and where the following week they each play a division rival.  The difference is the Chiefs have no look-ahead games with their weak division rivals.  There are only 1-2 teams where they may look ahead but even that I doubt.  Meanwhile, after a fluke win, I don't see why the Falcons would give a crap about winning this game knowing they have the steamrolling Saints to look ahead to. 

This is a terrible spot for the Falcons and again I will be SHOCKED if they don't get blown out in this. How anyone can fade the Chiefs in this spot is crazy.

I don't think there's any "look ahead" angle when they're playing a stand alone game. They're focused on the spotlight game IMO. GL.

The Kansas City Chiefs have a record of 25-25-1 against the spread between September 20, 2021 and September 20, 2024<

KC ats record 25-25-1 from sept. 2021 to sept 2024

Whoops

thanks man, always tail you

Love all the picks this week, just not sure about the giants. Was actually going to go with Cleveland in survivor, what are you seeing that I¡¯m not?

@vanzack

 Just can¡¯t understand the Broncos and Falcons picks. Week 1 we saw TB beat a rookie QB for Washington and now we will see the same old song and dance vs the rookie QB for Denver. KC minus a fg vs anyone in the NFL holds huge value.