NFL Week 1. Here we go....

@vanzack thanks for all the picks per usual and here¡¯s to another profitable season! Any lean on tonight¡¯s game? Any insight would be greatly appreciated!

No leans. I will be a spectator.

At 3.25 -100 I am on the Ravens, at 2.5 -100 I am on the Chiefs.  Very tight.

@vanzack

 First of all, I've been 'capping for about 40 years, but this is my first year posting on this site.  Much respect for your skills. 

As far as Week One, the one game that stands out for me is the COLTS +3 over the Texans.  I love dogs that can run the football, and with Jonathan Taylor healthy and ready to go, and Anthony Richardson a big dual threat guy also healthy, I like Indy to hit the ground running (pun intended).  A lot of folks are big on Houston, but I don't think they were as good as their record last year and some regression could be in the works.  There's also a strong angle favoring divisional home dogs in Week One. Finally, like you, I have this game at a pickem, so I'm happy to take the 3.  Happier still if it keeps going up!

Oh this is gold! Will definitely be following all season!  And...hoping that you start a "beat blackjack" thread somewhere else and explain what y'all are talking about. 

Thank you Van, always enjoy your capping angle and write ups.  

keep up the great work. Just back from Vegas, goy=t into Circa contests again. look forward to seeing those also

Good Luck this season

It is a bet for me if I can get the Colts +3 -108 or better.  Right now, about +3 -118.

I have offers in at exchanges for Colts +3 -108, but so far very little bites.

I agree with your rationale on the game.  I think the Texans are a little too overvalued for week 1.  

I have 7 entries in Survivor, and 1 in circa millions.

I think week 1 Survivor I will be on mostly the Seahawks, with some Bengals, and Falcons.

I will warn anyone who is keeping an eye on my Circa Millions (5 picks per week), the strategy of that contest is different than actual wagers / picks.  Sometimes I might be on different - or even opposite games than I post or bet.  It is strictly game theory.  There is strategy for that contest, and a different strategy for wagering and being profitable.  Dont assume my circa millions picks are anything without asking - the games I put up here as my picks are actual wagers.

Just a heads up.

If you're serious about beating blackjack. Study in this order.

1) Learn basic strategy

2) Learn the HI low system for counting cards

3) Master card counting

4) Get your bankroll together

4) Figure out your bet spread and unit sizing

5) Learn the deviations

6) Find some good doubledeck and singledeck games and profit

7) Once you are done with DD and SD move to 6 then 8 decks

@vanzack

 Agreed - bet colts run props if you want to bet on the hou/colts game

8.  Practice talking to security in your bathroom mirror
9.  Obtain hollywood makeup friends for costumes
10. Practice your zen of losing hands when the count is ++++ and you get 16

@vanzack

 love to follow your circa entries - if you wish to post your handle it would be nice. I have done survivor twice  and busted week 1 first every time as i took longshots to try and beat the odds of so many entrants

@umgmu

 boston terriers are bad little mothers 

It is vanzack 1 though 7 for survivor, and vanzack for millions

Pretty simple.

Circa Millions lines just came out....

Chiefs are -2.5
Packers are +2
Falcons are -3.5
Amongst others....

This is why I say dont look at my Circa picks.  They are specific to the Circa contest, which has different strategies than actual wagering.

@vanzack

good luck, my man!

LFG!

Are the Circa point spreads posted anywhere publicly?

@vanzack

 good luck this year Van. 

 LINK

@vanzack

 Gracias

I got it @-110 and took it. Thanks again for all the great insight. 

@vanzack

 In circa survivor as well I got 5.  In a local san diego survivor I got 10 at $ 100 per. we have over 3000 entries.

@vanzack

 Good luck this season. 

@Huss

 good luck sounds like a nice survivor league

@paperprophets

 yes on twitter i believe