NFL Week 1. Here we go....

For those new, or need a reminder ¨C this is what to expect from me this NFL season:

What I do: ¡¤
¡¤ Give out NFL sides with widely available spreads / prices
¡¤ Assign a unit value of 1-5
¡¤ Keep a posted record
¡¤ Games posted between Sat night and Sun morning, and day of game for Thurs / Mon games.
¡¤ Release all at the same time
¡¤ All are based on my own personal process developed over time which consists of a simulation model, and lots of experience.

What I won¡¯t do: ¡¤
Ask for money (I actually make more money than it would ever be worth to tout)
¡¤ Make any affiliate money (I make money from sports gambling)
¡¤ Give out plays that I don¡¯t bet with my own money (I make money betting)
¡¤ Keep vig in my units record. Assign whatever vig you want. One of my core principles is finding best lines and prices. If you choose to pay -110 for something that is widely available at -102, then that is on you. I don¡¯t mind if you assign -110 to all of my plays ¨C do whatever you want. I post very fair widely available lines that average -104ish prices. I have had 7 winning seasons no matter how much vig you assign.

Why I do this:
¡¤ I have been in the online sports gambling space for 25 years. I like it.
¡¤ I will occasionally ask you to support your local animal shelter. I like to think that some do.

My Record:
¡¤ I have won documented for 7 straight seasons. Last season I won 64 units, and went about 58% (which has been about average for the 7 year run). Probably means I am due to lose. You bet, you take responsibility.

What I ask from you:
¡¤ Play nice at all times. Remember what you are paying for these picks
¡¤ If you win, or if you lose and had fun ¨C please consider donating to your local animal shelter

Putting these up early week 1 as lines should be stable. Monday not included.

Anticipating the questions... I am not a "good to X" line guy if lines move. I BET NUMBERS NOT TEAMS. I do not pretend that -3 is similar in any way to -3.5. Line and price are inextricably connected. If a line / price combination moves, my stake becomes bigger or smaller. If stake becomes small enough at the available line / price, it is a no bet (like the leans on Colts and Lions). I never chase a line/price combination because a team is "going to win" no matter what. Happy to discuss further.

Units in week 1 are always going to be lower than subsequent weeks. I rely heavily on "traction" for determining staking, my word for standard deviation range in backtesting my model to determine staking. Week 1 I have no history, no backtesting, and therefore lower units risked.

GL all

 Packers +2.5 (2.5 units)
 Cowboys +2.5 (2 units)
 Jags +3.25 (1.5 units)
 Falcons -3.25 (1.5 units)
 Giants +1.5 (1.5 units)
 Panthers +4 (1 unit)
 Cards +6.5 (1 unit)
 Colts +2.75 (lean)
 Lions -3.5 (lean)

You are a legend my friend! Good luck this season!  

Best of luck this year Van! Looking forwards to your plays.

 Thanks for all you do.

 good luck this season

Thanks TT - good to see you

BOL to you this season! 

The straight forward no nonsense approach always works for me. Good luck this season Van!   

@vanzack

 Respect you as a capper and even more as a human for supporting animal shelters. Good luck this season brother

Good luck this season Van!! 

I assume the number like -3.25 means its 3 with extra juice like -120 for example, and opposite on +3.25 so 3 at +105 or +110 for example?

Always look forward to your threads, thanks for sharing. 

Half the wager on -3, half on -3.5.

Juice comes to about -100

@U812 

@surveyor101 

@Jars

@BankOnIt22

@MadeInDade

@jnethy

@Biscuiteater1

Good to see all of you.  GL this season!

@vanzack

 To a solid capper and soul, good luck this year Van!!!  

Good to see another old timer here! 

GL to you also.

@vanzack

 Get it Van....welcome back.....

The van the myth the legend. Good luck this season 

GL brother, I will be monitoring this system closely.....ha ha.

@vanzack

 GL this season vanzack. Looking forward to your insight and plays 

@vanzack

 Like the Cards and Panthers plays the best.....bol Van....

The VanMan is back!! Thx for your valuable input as always and cheers to a profitable season dude.

Thank you sir.

????

I thought most of the lines looked reasonable when they came out, but the one that really stood out to me was the Colts, Most of the public on the other side, What do you see that  John Q does not?

@vanzack

Thx for posting every year Van , appreciate your thoughts on the games but especially your love for animals !