As I started my regular season thread - this season is nothing like other seasons. The NFL as a content provider and media networks of all sorts, as well as the operators of all kinds (sports betting services facilitators and providers included) etc etc are calculating their trajectory almost on weekly bases integrating the learning process with immediate conclusions only good for implementation within the horizon of weeks in better cases and days in most.
We, as consumers of sort - have a great advantage in our hands because of the consuming pattern we can employ.
In plain English: less variables = better chances for us. And, there are not only less variables than before we have to take into a consideration before pulling the trigger on that game outcome or another, but, the other side has less and less time to implement newly absorbed patterns. That means that if this was a battle between us and the books - we'd have a great advantage to win small battles if we operate as specialized mobile commando units against generalized/centralized and stationary books.
And, what the small and "bastard" units like us have to do in order to beat the machine time after time? Blend in and act from inside. Learn to think like the adversary. Because, one thing is clear - we may win few battles here and there, but the war is always won by Vegas (I use Vegas as a code word for the "other" side we have to beat).
So, the battles won translated into English mean - we have to become "them" and learn to think like them and make short term decisions based on how "they" would. We have to understand the origin and the evolution of the lines given to us and understand what stands behind them as the maneuvering theatre for Vegas has been reduced into lesser communication able outposts we can easily intercept the messaging between.
The meaning is: we can better correspond to much lower moves than before.
1
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
As I started my regular season thread - this season is nothing like other seasons. The NFL as a content provider and media networks of all sorts, as well as the operators of all kinds (sports betting services facilitators and providers included) etc etc are calculating their trajectory almost on weekly bases integrating the learning process with immediate conclusions only good for implementation within the horizon of weeks in better cases and days in most.
We, as consumers of sort - have a great advantage in our hands because of the consuming pattern we can employ.
In plain English: less variables = better chances for us. And, there are not only less variables than before we have to take into a consideration before pulling the trigger on that game outcome or another, but, the other side has less and less time to implement newly absorbed patterns. That means that if this was a battle between us and the books - we'd have a great advantage to win small battles if we operate as specialized mobile commando units against generalized/centralized and stationary books.
And, what the small and "bastard" units like us have to do in order to beat the machine time after time? Blend in and act from inside. Learn to think like the adversary. Because, one thing is clear - we may win few battles here and there, but the war is always won by Vegas (I use Vegas as a code word for the "other" side we have to beat).
So, the battles won translated into English mean - we have to become "them" and learn to think like them and make short term decisions based on how "they" would. We have to understand the origin and the evolution of the lines given to us and understand what stands behind them as the maneuvering theatre for Vegas has been reduced into lesser communication able outposts we can easily intercept the messaging between.
The meaning is: we can better correspond to much lower moves than before.
We have great matchups for this upcoming wildcard weekend and at the end of it we also have a greatest dessert we could wish for: Bama vs Buckeyes.
Bills against Colts??? To lick the fingers.
Steelers vs Browns??? Oh man, give it to me that matchup every week.
Ravens and Titans at each others' throats? After what happened last postseason??? After what the Titans acting as the King Slayers have been doing?
Brady and the Bucs against WTF? Ah, sorry, WFT... Cinderella story...
Rams in Seattle against the Seahawks? Wow, McVay versus Carroll? No more fingers left to lick. Only the toes...
And, we have to suffer a boring Saints vs Bears matchup... Too small price to pay before fixating the butt size cushion on our favorite couch preparing for Bama and Ohio State...
So, please. Let's not approach this weekend as one we have to sweat. on the contrary - let's enjoy... and win some ....
2
We have great matchups for this upcoming wildcard weekend and at the end of it we also have a greatest dessert we could wish for: Bama vs Buckeyes.
Bills against Colts??? To lick the fingers.
Steelers vs Browns??? Oh man, give it to me that matchup every week.
Ravens and Titans at each others' throats? After what happened last postseason??? After what the Titans acting as the King Slayers have been doing?
Brady and the Bucs against WTF? Ah, sorry, WFT... Cinderella story...
Rams in Seattle against the Seahawks? Wow, McVay versus Carroll? No more fingers left to lick. Only the toes...
And, we have to suffer a boring Saints vs Bears matchup... Too small price to pay before fixating the butt size cushion on our favorite couch preparing for Bama and Ohio State...
So, please. Let's not approach this weekend as one we have to sweat. on the contrary - let's enjoy... and win some ....
Should have and could have done way better than that -but, that is what it is and I do not apologize for that as it is way above 53% success necessary to profit.
Now, let's put all that behind us as we start 0-0
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First of all -the credentials
25-16-3 NFL 64% success rate
16-12 NCAAF 57.14% success rate
41-28-3 Overall 59.42% success rate
Should have and could have done way better than that -but, that is what it is and I do not apologize for that as it is way above 53% success necessary to profit.
Saturday¡¯s biggest mismatch seems to be the Bills versus the Colts. The only reason the Colts are in the playoffs is because the Bills beat Miami. The Bills won six straight and nine of their past 10 games while the one they lost was by hail Mary to Arizona and that was the trigger to their latest run which was perfectly timed. They won their 9 out of 10 by an average of almost 2 TD's. QB Josh Allen finished in top 3 QB by two rating systems and the timing is the most important factor as the Bills and Allen got hot at the right time also covering 8 games in a row while the Colts failed to cover their last 3. So while Indy quarterback Philip Rivers had a decent year, he and the Colts can¡¯t match Buffalo¡¯s offensive firepower. But one thing the Colts do have is the superior defense ¡ª ranking eighth in EPA, to Buffalo¡¯s No. 16 ¡ª which offers them the best blueprint for an upset. But, the Colts defense is best against the run while Bills offense relies mostly on passing.
0
Saturday¡¯s biggest mismatch seems to be the Bills versus the Colts. The only reason the Colts are in the playoffs is because the Bills beat Miami. The Bills won six straight and nine of their past 10 games while the one they lost was by hail Mary to Arizona and that was the trigger to their latest run which was perfectly timed. They won their 9 out of 10 by an average of almost 2 TD's. QB Josh Allen finished in top 3 QB by two rating systems and the timing is the most important factor as the Bills and Allen got hot at the right time also covering 8 games in a row while the Colts failed to cover their last 3. So while Indy quarterback Philip Rivers had a decent year, he and the Colts can¡¯t match Buffalo¡¯s offensive firepower. But one thing the Colts do have is the superior defense ¡ª ranking eighth in EPA, to Buffalo¡¯s No. 16 ¡ª which offers them the best blueprint for an upset. But, the Colts defense is best against the run while Bills offense relies mostly on passing.
Does that mean anything in the wildcard game? Does the fact that the Bills strength of schedule is 6th against the 20th of the Colts and yet the Bills rank second in the NFL to eight of the Colts? Does the QB rating matter, cause, if they do, the Bills and Allen are in top against 16th of the Colts and the supporting cast of the Bills is ranked 3rd against the 5th of the Colts. And, I remind you - all this with the strength of the schedule in place.
So, what can be the reason for such low , -6.5 line? 8 covers in a row against 3 no covers in a row, all the deltas quality and quantity wise and the Bills ain't worth even a full TD? Even a system based on Prof Arap Elo's chess ranking machine which contemplates the Zero Sum game predicts the Bills to win by 8 points. So, why the odds makers are so careful here? Well, they actually aren't that careful. I'd even say they are somewhat careless as the computer print out says the Bills by 2 points based on all possible factors taking into a consideration even the Bills behavior in past postseasons against those of the Colts.
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Does that mean anything in the wildcard game? Does the fact that the Bills strength of schedule is 6th against the 20th of the Colts and yet the Bills rank second in the NFL to eight of the Colts? Does the QB rating matter, cause, if they do, the Bills and Allen are in top against 16th of the Colts and the supporting cast of the Bills is ranked 3rd against the 5th of the Colts. And, I remind you - all this with the strength of the schedule in place.
So, what can be the reason for such low , -6.5 line? 8 covers in a row against 3 no covers in a row, all the deltas quality and quantity wise and the Bills ain't worth even a full TD? Even a system based on Prof Arap Elo's chess ranking machine which contemplates the Zero Sum game predicts the Bills to win by 8 points. So, why the odds makers are so careful here? Well, they actually aren't that careful. I'd even say they are somewhat careless as the computer print out says the Bills by 2 points based on all possible factors taking into a consideration even the Bills behavior in past postseasons against those of the Colts.
I feel a bit uncomfortable with the fact the Bills covered 8 in a row against 3 no covers in a row by the Colts. Why? Cause the law of averages as well as Vegas have their own plans here I'm afraid. The line that opened at the bills -6 has grown to -6.5 anticipating an easy win and cover by the Bills
0
I feel a bit uncomfortable with the fact the Bills covered 8 in a row against 3 no covers in a row by the Colts. Why? Cause the law of averages as well as Vegas have their own plans here I'm afraid. The line that opened at the bills -6 has grown to -6.5 anticipating an easy win and cover by the Bills
Monitoring the line movement and the money on that game between the Bills and the Colts. Here's an update: the line is back at -6 in some books. Now, Cross that info with actual number of the tickets and the money and the "usual ""anomaly"" appears. What is that ""anomaly""? Well, the percentage of money on the Bills to cover is lower than the percentage of number of tickets on Bills to cover. In other words - some fat tickets on the Colts +6.5 forced the line to 6 and despite both - the number of the tickets and the amount of money - are majority on the Bills (great majority I should say), the phenom of discrepancy between the two raises some questions. Since it is yet too early to draw the conclusions - you may regard it as another tool acquired and added to our handicapping toolbox
0
Monitoring the line movement and the money on that game between the Bills and the Colts. Here's an update: the line is back at -6 in some books. Now, Cross that info with actual number of the tickets and the money and the "usual ""anomaly"" appears. What is that ""anomaly""? Well, the percentage of money on the Bills to cover is lower than the percentage of number of tickets on Bills to cover. In other words - some fat tickets on the Colts +6.5 forced the line to 6 and despite both - the number of the tickets and the amount of money - are majority on the Bills (great majority I should say), the phenom of discrepancy between the two raises some questions. Since it is yet too early to draw the conclusions - you may regard it as another tool acquired and added to our handicapping toolbox
Good read Might I ask though, where are you referencing the line movement from? Most offshores had it 7 at the open and Vegas books all 6.5-7. Currently 6.5 across Vegas books.
thx
America First
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Good read Might I ask though, where are you referencing the line movement from? Most offshores had it 7 at the open and Vegas books all 6.5-7. Currently 6.5 across Vegas books.
At the moment the line is back at -6.5, Vegas books or Global ones. The re are several sites to check the lines and I'm not going to advertise them at the expense of Covers. So, bear with me please if I told you that I have 10 to 12 windows open simultaneously with different betting sites
@softballmaniac
1
@kcblitzkrieg
At the moment the line is back at -6.5, Vegas books or Global ones. The re are several sites to check the lines and I'm not going to advertise them at the expense of Covers. So, bear with me please if I told you that I have 10 to 12 windows open simultaneously with different betting sites
The team props show the Bills TT line at 29.5 and the Colts at 21.5 which matches the 51 totals line but is 1.5 points higher than the spread in favor of the Bills kind of justifying Arpad Elo's system output of 8 point spread.
There are no two ways around it. If the fat tickets will continue to fly the Colts way, I will have to make sure it ain't some Asian triads trying to middle between the Colts +6.5 and the Bills ML before I will pull the trigger in either direction. Usually the ML is used to middle if there is another game you consider a banker and this upcoming weekend we have more than few such candidates to complete the parlay with the Bills ML. But, the most outstanding one is that of Crimson Tide.
So, right now we have established the communication with several conditions that their fruition process can be well monitored and we are FLEXIBLE. We will correspond with all of those "several" scenarios and have the decision made couple hours before the kick off the latest.
You all are welcome to take part in this public handicapping process
0
The team props show the Bills TT line at 29.5 and the Colts at 21.5 which matches the 51 totals line but is 1.5 points higher than the spread in favor of the Bills kind of justifying Arpad Elo's system output of 8 point spread.
There are no two ways around it. If the fat tickets will continue to fly the Colts way, I will have to make sure it ain't some Asian triads trying to middle between the Colts +6.5 and the Bills ML before I will pull the trigger in either direction. Usually the ML is used to middle if there is another game you consider a banker and this upcoming weekend we have more than few such candidates to complete the parlay with the Bills ML. But, the most outstanding one is that of Crimson Tide.
So, right now we have established the communication with several conditions that their fruition process can be well monitored and we are FLEXIBLE. We will correspond with all of those "several" scenarios and have the decision made couple hours before the kick off the latest.
You all are welcome to take part in this public handicapping process
The Colts will win SU boys. The Bills will gp one and done. Long writeup = garbage. Titans also will cover or win SU. Ravens = garbage. L. Jackson is trash. Some of you boys will blah blah and blah but I don't give a sh*t about it.
3
The Colts will win SU boys. The Bills will gp one and done. Long writeup = garbage. Titans also will cover or win SU. Ravens = garbage. L. Jackson is trash. Some of you boys will blah blah and blah but I don't give a sh*t about it.
The Colts will win SU boys. The Bills will gp one and done. Long writeup = garbage. Titans also will cover or win SU. Ravens = garbage. L. Jackson is trash. Some of you boys will blah blah and blah but I don't give a sh*t about it.
really? A 40 year old QB who can¡¯t move is going on the road and beating the second best team in the division. Lololol. Bills to the SB. Book it. Colts and Rivers Bolo Tie will be on the early flight home out of NY Saturday. I find it hilarious that people think the Colts will win SU. No shot in hell.
1
Quote Originally Posted by Dynasty4:
The Colts will win SU boys. The Bills will gp one and done. Long writeup = garbage. Titans also will cover or win SU. Ravens = garbage. L. Jackson is trash. Some of you boys will blah blah and blah but I don't give a sh*t about it.
really? A 40 year old QB who can¡¯t move is going on the road and beating the second best team in the division. Lololol. Bills to the SB. Book it. Colts and Rivers Bolo Tie will be on the early flight home out of NY Saturday. I find it hilarious that people think the Colts will win SU. No shot in hell.
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