I wrote down three Sunday night that seemed decent:
Washington +3.5 v Philadelphia
Seattle +3 v Minnesota
Dallas +4 v Tampa Bay
I feel like all three visiting teams are due a drop in production, and at least two of the home teams are super motivated. I was kind of hoping to see Seahawks and Commanders on Claw's list eventually (he did take Dallas).
@Rush51
First game was actually competitive until Barkley went crazy in the 4th quarter, 8 point winning margin. At this point in the season Daniels is closer to being a "sophomore" than a "freshman". A one score game again. GL
It's week 16, and Darnold is still a question mark for some folks.
12-2 su. 9-4-1 ats
#4 in qbr, #4 in ypp, #2 in big time throws, #3 in cpoe, #8 in epa+cpoe composite.
84.8 grade by pff.
He is #5 in the league in ¡°plus accuracy¡± this season when under pressure, a measure of how often he throws his target open. That¡¯s behind only CJ Stroud, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, according to Pro Football Focus.
When defenses send five or more pass-rushers this season, Darnold has completed 73% of his passes, averaging 12.2 yards per attempt and thrown 12 touchdowns to zero interceptions.
What's to question?
@garbagetime
I like the picks you made, just have a small concern about Seahawks because yes it looks like a very logical bounce back game after losing to GB last week. Ultimately, a +2.5 point dog at home translates to a Seahawks outright win, you rarely take those 2.5 points in hopes that you lose by a last second FG for a final score of 17-16 (example). If you don¡¯t get that scenario then pretty much you¡¯re saying Seattle going to win at home. When it¡¯s a +3.5 home dog then ya that¡¯s totally different. Good luck.
Trundling along at plus-one unit on the season, mainly because I tailed theclaw some (although not enough!), so I'm inclined to take the points just in case 16-17 is the result.
The better team is the away team in all three, but Seattle has receivers who can go get it too, Phil-Was is a key division matchup and so 4 points is nice to have, and Tampa...well, I figure Dallas will manage to save McCarthy's job, the idiots.
They only have to lose by three at home to a division rival. They may not be able in general, and they may not be able to stop Saquon in particular, but this is why it's called gambling.
I waited because I was traveling out of the country without a signal a lot of the time, and was also not sure whether I'd take three, two or one of them. So I got Seattle +2. I thought all three might lengthen in odds, actually.
The funny thing about it is how often we sweat this line or that line, when we know the line only matters one in five times. You culd have driven yourself crazy over Dallas +4 or +3.5, or Commandos +4 or +3.5, and it simply didn't matter. And funnier even is that the Commanders did everything in their power to throw away the game, three fumbles by Robinson, two picks, all sorts of crap, and in the end, with 10 seconds left, they weren't going to win or cover, and then four seconds later, they had won and covered. This is why I say all the time that results are random and can't be capped with any certainty.
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