@jimmyc33030
Wow. I had no idea FL was so strict. I know BetUS has live lines. So does Nitrogen Sports (although they only take crypto as a form of payment). I'm not sure if Intertops has live wagering, but you can always check. Of the 3, I'd say BetUS is closest in similarity with BetNow, but that may also mean their terms of service may also be similar.
@Froggy80
I was surprised too. First time I heard that. I¡¯ll check out your other recommendations. Been busy with work and GC remodeling our house I haven¡¯t had to time to fart. Thanks for your pic last night. I got lucky The first quarter paid cause I fell asleep checked the score in the morning. Thanks Froggy80
I'm looking into a player prop system based on several factors:
Anticipated pace of game advantage/disadvantage
Fatigue/Rest
Average pace of past 4-weeks of match-ups to gauge if there should be a clear advantage against the book's line
The thought process is this:
A fast paced game will allow for more opportunities and thus should encourage us to lean on the over for player props. For example, if Houston Rockets (fastest pace this season) vs. Philadelphia (slowest pace this season) were facing off, then naturally Rockets props should lean on the under because their players will have less than the average number of opportunities due to their opponents dragging the pace of the game down. On the flip side, Philadelphia props should lean on the over in terms of player props due to the anticipated increase in pace.
Fatigue/Rest can be used to complement a pick. Rest + Increasing pace should provide an edge on the over and Fatigue + Decreasing pace should provide an edge on the under.
The Average 4-week pace factor will indicate whether the line is based on an increase in pace situation or a decrease in pace. This should allow us to see if the current lines are over-leaning in one direction or not. Clearly defining these edges should in theory help us not get trapped into a prop bet that's already factoring in a pace differential. An example of this is team like Houston or Philadelphia.
If in the last 4 weeks, Philadelphia was facing NYK, Miami, Dallas, Toronto, and Boston (lowest paces in the league), then the player props would have adjusted to a very low pace environment. Then today, if they're facing Houston, we can define a clear edge against the book. Vice versa would also be true when factoring in Houston's past 4-weeks of matchups.
It's a work in progress. I'm testing a bunch of ideas, but I really do like player props... much more than game props because there are so many really great opportunities.
Based on the spreadsheet Froggy80 posted last week:
1Q is 68-70 49%
2Q 41-29 58%
3Q 18-11 62%
4Q 11-0 100%
The spreadsheet was posted in this thread around the 18th, and I haven't been tracking the results since.
I'm assuming any quarter that didn't win was a loss, so a few of the losses are pushes.
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