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Anyone playing NATURAL GAS?

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Posts: 44

DiverRon

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2008

Posts: 3809

Posted: Nov. 5, 2014 - 11:26 PM ET #1

Hi all;
With cold winter forecasted isn't this kind of a no brainier? Isn't this issue "ETN" just dependent on weather and building up inventories which can be lower or higher than expected and that sets price?
But in essence it's really just dependent on weather right? Am I missing anything here? Lots and lots of people using Natural gas for heating right? Ain't it guaranteed to go up with cold forecasted
Winter!??
Thanks in advance for all commentary here to help me figure this out!

Diver ??

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thorpe

All-Star

Joined: Sep, 2002

Posts: 12927

Posted: Nov. 6, 2014 - 12:50 PM ET #2

It has to be colder than expected. Utilities stock up on gas throughout the year for the winter based on estimates.

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DiverRon

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2008

Posts: 3809

Posted: Nov. 6, 2014 - 3:50 PM ET #3

Up $3 today (20%); holy crap!!!
Wish I had it now!!!!

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DiverRon

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2008

Posts: 3809

Posted: Nov. 6, 2014 - 4:51 PM ET #4

UGAZ is the issue I'm talking about by the way

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SashimiKid

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 2090

Posted: Nov. 6, 2014 - 8:16 PM ET #5

Entered at 13.41 and watched it drop to 10 now riding her back up,,will bail at 26....she hit 40 last year with the polar vortex freezing the entire fkn country

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SashimiKid

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Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 2090

Posted: Nov. 6, 2014 - 8:21 PM ET #6

Inventories are 12% below last years level and the cold weather last week freaked everybody out hence the massive bull run and shes probably hitting 19 tomorrow(friday),,,i would caution these 3X etf's can get hairy so wouldnt play with rent/grocery money if you are unfamiliar with them....on a technical basis GASL is oversold but i cant pull the trigger, something about that etf makes me wary as it seems to run with oil and not NG

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DiverRon

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2008

Posts: 3809

Posted: Nov. 6, 2014 - 10:54 PM ET #7

Sashimi kid,

I'd like to establish a position in UGAZ.

What do you recommend?

How much do you think it will pull back

before I think it goes up again in later part

of next week?

Thanks a million!

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SashimiKid

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 2090

Posted: Nov. 7, 2014 - 11:50 AM ET #8

RD,, i added a lil on the pullback this morning,,its pretty much blue skies to 27 so its up to you on entry price...i do have a stop at 16.55 in case of pullback but would rebuy at a lower price as it looks like a cold winter is a brewin'......GASL having huge technical bounce today so shame on me for not following my convictions

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DiverRon

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2008

Posts: 3809

Posted: Nov. 7, 2014 - 10:49 PM ET #9

Sashimi;
Ty for your that and GASL really moved like you said. The funny thing is both you and I spoke about UGAZ and GASL and 1 day later they made big moves :-0!
Look at time stamps on both our posts .

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SashimiKid

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 2090

Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 9:08 PM ET #10

took 16.55 off the table as shes a bouncy lil bi*^h but will be careful with her,,, any sign the bears are taking over and im out with hope of rebuying in later...this might be the best day trade etf out there right now if you know what youre doing cause of the bounciness....good luck with this RD she should be a winner at these levels if have 2-3 month horizon..but who knows DYODD

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SashimiKid

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 2090

Posted: Nov. 10, 2014 - 8:51 PM ET #11

sold at 17.03 today looking for re entry around 15.2 --15.4,,,,the bears in control for the moment

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DiverRon

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2008

Posts: 3809

Posted: Nov. 10, 2014 - 9:59 PM ET #12

Sashimi;

I took a position in low 16's today but now I'm kind of worried.

I hope it doesn't go lower. I would hoping to ride this up a few bucks

Quick and pocket a few G's. Now I'm not so sure it will be there that quick even with this polar vortex artic thing a magig!?!?

I watch this garbage go up 5 friggin days straight ; then take a position

And the biatch looking like sheeeeeet now!!!

Your thoughts???

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SashimiKid

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 2090

Posted: Nov. 11, 2014 - 6:02 PM ET #13

Quote Originally Posted by DiverRon:

Sashimi;

I took a position in low 16's today but now I'm kind of worried.

I hope it doesn't go lower. I would hoping to ride this up a few bucks

Quick and pocket a few G's. Now I'm not so sure it will be there that quick even with this polar vortex artic thing a magig!?!?

I watch this garbage go up 5 friggin days straight ; then take a position

And the biatch looking like sheeeeeet now!!!

Your thoughts???

Normal tug of war--- i re-entered at exactly 15 and comfortable with the price--these 3x's take you on some crazy rides

i rode 13.41 down to 10.02 back to 17.03 in three weeks

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SashimiKid

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 2090

Posted: Nov. 19, 2014 - 8:52 AM ET #14

We have liftoff-- if she can get thru 20 its going to be a beautiful thing

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DiverRon

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2008

Posts: 3809

Posted: Nov. 19, 2014 - 3:30 PM ET #15

Sashimi,

What is your plan with UGAZ?
Reason I ask is because its swinging so much each day it might be more profitable to trade short term swings???

Although it is forecasted to be another cold winter like last year it isn't gonna really be any colder and oil is cheaper and production more efficient, ect. however were supposed to export NG in 2015.
Im really confused predicting a top this season. In my gut I do not see it over 30 though. I know you can make a case for this but not seeing it.

What are your thoughts here? You trading OR investing this guy as well?

Sincerely,

DR

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SashimiKid

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 2090

Posted: Nov. 19, 2014 - 3:58 PM ET #16

DR

The only long term 3x i have is UPRO,, the rest are daily, weekly, or monthly trades

I have a core UGAZ position that im holding to 27(will prob move it down to 25 to be honest) and I also trade in/out of UGAZ/DGAZ daily as some days you have 15%-20% swings--i dont try to time tops/bottoms but squirm around in the middle and dont get greedy....If can make 5%-7% in three hours i dont worry to much if it could have been 10% as she turns on a dime and your profits are gone..another crazy combo is JDST/JNUG a junior gold miner 3x....its also insane but profitable

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CrusCrnshw

MVP

Joined: May, 2005

Posts: 16016

Posted: Nov. 26, 2014 - 8:08 PM ET #17

You guys still playing these? What causes you to buy? Is it weather reports? And weather for where? Or are you just buying on pull backs hoping it rebounds?

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DiverRon

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2008

Posts: 3809

Posted: Nov. 27, 2014 - 9:34 AM ET #18

Crus,

Weather is definite a factor but there's a lot more and

It gets quite complicated. ALL COMMODITIES DO!

First of all it's technically a future so it has more to do with

The anticipated circumstances in the next month. However

Now influences the next month too. Ts kind of hard to explain.

Then there's weekly inventory reports and injections into inventory

That can influence price big time. But like I said its a future so that can be tricky as well. Then the price of oil and competition with oil can be a factor. Also. Potential exporting and increased and/or decrease production of NG is big. At times it seems like this issue has "panic selling" where the price can go down nearly 10% in minutes.

I have identified a channel for this and am disciplined to not buy above a certain price and it has worked out for me. I also realize that it may dump down though even after buying in for my price whereby I would be happy holding it for longer. This happened to me with DGAZ (which is the inverse of NG) Last summer when NG went unexpectingly high and my position fell. I held it for months but was finally about to turn a few G's.

I'm not trying to discourage you from UGAZ or DGAZ TRADING but the people that trading commodities requires a special understanding

And is always more complicated than just the underlying material.

Go to the message boards on yahoo and around and research the garbage out of this and paper trade it before you dream of trading. You can make or lose big quick.

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Rush51

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2005

Posts: 7966

Posted: Nov. 28, 2014 - 5:18 AM ET #19

I don't like to trade much, as I prefer longer-term investment themes to making money. NG is an interesting commodity if they ever plan to allow for its export from the U.S.

It'll really piss off the Russians, too, lol...

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SashimiKid

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 2090

Posted: Dec. 3, 2014 - 10:08 AM ET #20

down to 9.85 but im not biting on UGAZ,,,think she may go to 9.20,, the bears are kicking the s--t out of bulls at the moment,,9.85 is 52 week low so who knows where shes going,,the channel suggest 8.5 but i doubt it

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Knoxpoker

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 1244

Posted: Dec. 3, 2014 - 11:19 AM ET #21

find out when Obama said in a press conference that "We have enough natural gas for the next 100 years." I heard it with my own ears and I though to myself .. "Oh boy , natural gas is dead after saying that..." Supply and demand.. According to Mr Obama, we have way to much of it .. So yes that means price will go down..

Plus I looked at he chart of Ugaz nothing but air under it right now.. Not a good buy until it shows some form of life.. and that could be awile.. Thank Obama for that sharp drop..

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SashimiKid

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 2090

Posted: Dec. 5, 2014 - 11:34 AM ET #22

Come on break 10.02 girl

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slamspurs

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2004

Posts: 5490

Posted: Dec. 5, 2014 - 11:47 AM ET #23

Never considered playing commodities before, but gas is kind of one of those no brainers isn't it?

I mean it's cheap right now, but that's not going to last forever. Eventually we will be at $3+ a gallon again.

We're not going to see $1 gas like back in 2000, and even if we did, how long would that be for? Sounds like guaranteed profit if you're willing to hold long term, but it's probably not even necessary.

Of course I see this post the day before it goes up 12%.

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SashimiKid

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 2090

Posted: Dec. 5, 2014 - 1:10 PM ET #24

Slam this is Natural Gas(NattyG) not gasoline...Its called the widowmaker trade and for good reason

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Rush51

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2005

Posts: 7966

Posted: Dec. 6, 2014 - 12:43 AM ET #25

Knox, you are underestimating the premise that NG will always be priced as a local commodity. Oil is traded as a global commodity because it is more easily transported by ship/pipeline to areas around the world. NG does not have the same luxury . It is priced relative to the markets it serves ; Europe, U.S., Asia, etc. all trade with different values for NG. For example NG in Asia trades at nearly 3x the price as it does is in U.S.

What happens when the U.S. allows for the export of NG to Europe, for instance. It is closer than you think, because the Europeans are growing hostage to the Russians with every passing day. The U.S. is flowing with excess NG, and cannot wait to take advantage of markets that are paying too much.

Opportunity is with the NG drillers, despite the hardship taking place right now.

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Anyone playing NATURAL GAS?

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