Saturday Night Mohawk.....looks like the cheaper OS races are on...lots of upsets in these
-medium to light winds that are South to South east ideal for horses who like to move at the half and wind up.....horses on the lead that get away will get a push
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/hourly-weather-forecast/ontario/campbellville
Race #1 - Logic says, its tough to key OSS Grassroots horses and some might with the Gallucci horse....I won't because my logic is, why isn't this 2 yr old racing in the Gold Events right away?
Take > 245678 ....best 3 are 457 and maybe 6 include too ....but then how do you leave out a Cassie Coleman horse #8?
Race #2 - SPENT a crazy amount of time with this race and concluded....only 5 horses can win this one and, most importantly, #2, 7 and 8 are racing on a more regular rotation after laying off for a while which makes them dangerous
GUT CALL > #15 and #7 <<< want to KEY this one Magical Arthur because I envision this horse getting into the 1 or 2 position and rolling up the rail while other battle on the outside....this horse has burnt me so many times racing sneakily against great horses and frankly, its a fast horse itself!
I think it would be foolish to leave out #2 and #8 so...
TAKE 5 horses > 12578
Race 3 - believe you only need 3 -4 horses, but would be comfortable KEYING 1-2 only
Best:>>> 3 and 5 ....a 1'55 qualifier is unreal for Luc Roy's horse and looks like Sylvain got shuffled to Buffalo in his first race and had lots of horse
Maybe: #1 > maybe too tough to ask to beat 2 faster horses to get your second win and a row
#4 > won a qualifier against two good young horses and lost to #5 in another....cannot count on Austin Sorrie...has won only once in about 3-4 weeks
Race #4 - 2 horse race and maybe just 1 horse >>> #7 Acupulco Sunburn ....can Mr. Beast beat this horse?? ...would have to take the lead at some point in the first 3 Q's to do so but I doubt
IDEA? > use #7 as a KEY on a big ticket
> do smaller 2nd ticket with #2.....or create a ticket from Race 2 > as a Pick3
Race #5 - Trevor on #7 is gonna go to the front with 2 races in its pocket and good speed, Luc Roy with take #3 into the 2 hole.....now, can a couple of horses with good closing times beat these??
#4 does but Pentland does not own the horse and its first race
#10 is a wild card but just gonna need to keep the horse flat to not have to re-qualify.....could the horse come flying late?
I think you just need > TAKE ONLY 347 ....back up other horses if your ticket is alive
Suggested tickets coming up....like the card because it has a lot of unknowns and this is a specialty sometimes...tend to do better when young horses compete.....won a $700 Pick5 the last time we had a card similarly
Main Ticket:
245678 / 12578 / 1348 / 7 / 7 << just watched the last Gold final it was in on Youtube....could have went faster.....followed the top horse sitting 4th who was gapped from the fast leaders and followed it around the final turn 3rd over and then Trevor started asking the horse and it responded but .....a couple of horses squeezed it off about 5-7 strides from the finish and Trevor noticeably pulled back so there would not be locked wheels
Cost for this ticket with lots of variance for longer/mid price shots = $24 ....if you love Mr. Beast....just add in Race 4 and the ticket costs $48 or play ticket underneath for reduced cost because really, if it beats Acupulco, the payout would be double Acapulco's
4567/ 1257/ 135 / 2 /7 = $9.60
4567/1257/35 / 7 / 347 = $19.20 << more options in last race and chance for 40 cent payout of main ticket
I am out of the Pick5 .....glad I made some Pick3 backup bets because I was curious as to why #6 opened up at 5-1 and pretty much stayed UNDER 10-1 the whole time.....so as I watched this, and no one came at the horse in the first half letting the horse almost go in 30 seconds after a 26.1 open quarter....unheard of to see that with these, so I figured it was a setup barn race to give it a shot to win and it won!
Bet
Woodbine SB, Race 2, $0.20 PK3 6 / 5 / 7 $0.20
Bet
Woodbine SB, Race 2, $0.20 PK3 6 / 3,5 / 2 $0.40
Bet
Woodbine SB, Race 2, $0.20 PK3 1-8 / 3-5 / 7 $4.80
Thursday Night Harness:
-hot weather / strong west wind for first 2 races and then it tapers off
-consider fastest front end horses and fastest closer in those races as a strategy in your picks
Race 1 > Baby filly trotters / Ivory Series....unless 2 standout, its an ALL race because trot qualifiers tend to go slow to get into the race but race differently in a race
Just need #3 and #4 ....maybe add #1 and #6 who is middle of the gate, just in case..... #7 looks fast too
TAKE 5 HORSES
I am gaoing to do a DOUBLE with #4 .....really like the looks of this horse and its qualifier too beating most of the 'boys'
Race 2 - very competitive race .....all have a chance of winning and not keying anything.....especially having seen some of these race
TAKE all 6 Horses or just 3 horses #3, #5, #6....or take the 2 lowest favourites and Sylvains fast closing horse!
Race 3 - #5 looks like a strong KEY >> JMAC is winning most TROT races when he has one of the top 2 horses in the program and I don't see anything different here unless the horse breaks....maybe take 2nd horse just in case
2nd best = #9 and #7 both....look at their qualifying back half times....wow!!
Race #4 - need only 3 horses here
-Aaron Byron cannot beat these drivers only if the horse is 2-3 seconds faster and that is NOT the case
Take #1 - SUPREMELY BRED and great qualifier.....JMAC will coax a great trip for Fellows to see what he horse is capable of ....maybe even first over but should be 2nd over likely and he is so good down the lane get horses to believe they are the BEST in the race and catching leaders at the top of the stretch
Take # 5 - should be a KEY but there is a driver change so you just never know
Take #8 - who had an improved 2nd qualifier despite finishing 2nd to #5 in this race #3 where I will take 3 horses... and bet #5 two more times with ALL/ whatever I like in race #5
Race 5 - Need 4 horses here but would take #4 as a KEY if there was a driver change.....the horse won easily despite JRenaud driving but this group is much tougher than that race!!
-#1 was very impressive vs #10 in its first race.....TAKE BOTH THESE
-#2 has won a race at Sarnia with a fat trainer body on the horse and if doesn't break, likely would win
DO THEY BRING AN UPSET IN THIS RACE??? I will be playing a PICK3 just in case starting in
Suggested Tickets:
Pick3 Race #1 60 cent > 346 / 124 / 5 = $5.40
Pick3 Race #1 40 cent > 2 / 356 / 5 = $1.20
Pick 3 Race #1 60 cent > 17 / 3456 / 5 = $4.80
Pick5 > 346 / 356 / #3 if driver change but 3579 for sure / 5 / 410 = $14.40
346 / 356 / 5 / 158 / 12410 = $21.60
Total =
BIG BIG PICK5 pool tonight.....Saturday night, they screwed around in the 4th leg of the 2nd pick5 (I was alive to Lawless Shadow with ALL in the last race and then I will show you what happened in that HI5 RACE....ABSOLUTE FREAKIN LEGEND OF A RACE and big time disappoint for me as I will show you my ticket!
Here is what happened Saturday in the 10th race HI5 with $650 000 in the pool. First, take a look at my tickets. I KEYED #4 and wheeled #3 and #5 for 4th and 5th and then had them winning on triactors and 2nd and 3rd place tickets as well
-BOTH went off at 30 -1 or better, but if you did the capping, you would notice they tend to finish 2nd -6th every race and had faced tougher than most of the horses in that race.....NOW WATCH this race....its FUN and AMAZING at the same time and realize the horse who WON, was HUNG outside the WHOLE race and somehow came on to win the race despite all out and sitting 4th down the lane....and I watched this a few times and there is no cheating.....its just a legendary race to watch !!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DT4IZ1p9334 << copy and watch in your browser
I am watching the race, and it appears I have a HI5 winning ticket with my 3 or 5 wheeled, #4 winning the race....and a 67-1 horse for 4th!!
Jul 30, 2022
10:45 PM Bet 74305730140805 Woodbine SB, Race 10, $0.20 HI5 4 / 6,7,11 / 6,7,11 / 1-3,5-8 / 3,5 $11.20
Jul 30, 2022
10:42 PM Bet 99858646478882 Woodbine SB, Race 10, $0.20 HI5 4 / 6,7,11 / 6,7,11 / 3,5 / 1-11 $16.80
Mohawk Tonight >> thunderstorms could disrupt > gusty SW wind should assist front end but FIRST OVER horses get a push on the last turn if they are winding up
The 1st PICK5 should have over $200K in the pool due to the Saturday night last PICK5 had no winning ticket due to the incredible race in RACE 10 (see Youtube of it as the HI5 race >> freakin incredible legendary race for the winner)
My places for tonight:
Race #1 > either of the 2 Moreau trotters should win but I played a ticket with 3 other upsetters possible as you will see
Race #2 > ALL, or you can leave out #2,#6 and #8
Race #3 > #6 or #7 ....prefer #6 over #7 as its a monster closer in the short field and has raced tougher
-I can see an upset in that race to shake up PICK5 so I played an upset PICK3 as you will see
Race #4 > Love love #8 Luc Roy's horse who finished 3rd to HP Momentum in a stakes race, on a slow track in Montreal as a 2 yr old.....also love #6 ....and maybe 4 or 5 could surprise
Race #5 > think Patriarch Hanover #4 is the class of the bunch and now does not have to race against Forbidden Trade with good closing times and can move well.....you will see another ticket with 5 other horses with a shot
Aug 01, 2022
4:39 PM Bet 07834425940631 Woodbine SB, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 5,10 / 1-8 / 6,7 / 4-6,8 / 4 $25.60
Aug 01, 2022
4:49 PM Bet 91362227139911 Woodbine SB, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 5,10 / 1,3-5,7 / 6 / 6,8 / 1,2,5,6,8,9 $24.00
Aug 01, 2022
4:50 PM Bet 64702182974256 Woodbine SB, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 3,7,9 / 1,3-5,7 / 6,7 / 6,8 / 4 $12.00
BACKUP PICK3s
Aug 01, 2022
4:53 PM Bet 97841982549226 Woodbine SB, Race 1, $0.20 PK3 1,2,6 / 1-8 / 6 $4.80
Aug 01, 2022
4:53 PM Bet 44929072204756 Woodbine SB, Race 1, $0.20 PK3 5,10 / 1-8 / 1,2,5 $9.60
Aug 01, 2022
4:56 PM Bet 36786053202674 Woodbine SB, Race 1, $0.20 PK3 2 / 1,3,5,7 / 6 $0.80
Aug 01, 2022
4:56 PM Bet 21760095077176 Woodbine SB, Race 1, $0.20 PK3 1,6 / 1,3,5,7 / 7 $1.60
Aug 01, 2022
4:55 PM Bet 43917513779324 Woodbine SB, Race 1, $0.20 PK3 1,6 / 1-8 / 6 $3.20
Race 1 - wasn't even close.....#5 won by 3 lengths in 153 '2 with #10 2nd
-you always have to pay attention to who Sylvain drives if he has choices...same goes for JMAC who is not here tonight
-in the spring, I was questioning Sylvain's hands but he is on a mission in the summer and is equaling JMAC almost toe to toe in the past 2 months or so
Race #1 - baby trotters in Grassroots (surprises can happen or not...its race by race...if horses seem even, ALL!)
TAKE 3 HORSES for sure > 4 , 7, 9 for PICK5
Take for Upset Pick3 >
-looking at closing times is key for young trotters....only one that we are not sure on is #4 as a first racer but Sylvain is amazing on first timers, great trot trainer and the horse has pedigree
RACE #2 - most obvious horse is #5 but has a driver change and faces some sneaky horses with good trainers and drivers....
-DEFINTITELY DO some Doubles to #5 if they are paying > $14 per $2 bet with the 3 horses in Race #1
DEFEATERS of #5: 23410 ....all have either a great qualifier, 56'+ back half recorded or have good trainer/driver combo
LONG (but possible) : 179
TAKE > 234510 and do some DOUBLES to #5
Race #3 - #6 looks amazing getting to the front in 57 seconds and winning by 3 but is gonna be challenged by 2 other horses and maybe a 1st timer who could be one of the best 2 yr olds to not race yet (#2 > wins 2 first qualifiers with a great driver!)
TAKE > 2678 ....if you wish to cut back, unless there is an equipment change, I think #8 will have to drive carefully off the gate and be way back at the half.....but you never know
Race 4 - another race that could take a KEY winning in #9 but after fading back on that last race, and now the horse will race to the front here, will it happen again? Did that first race win take too much out of the horse??
TAKE 4 HORSES > 1579
LONGSHOTS - #3 and #4
Race 5 - no key here....4 real good horses that are equal...and backup with #1 in HENSLEY
TAKE > 2358
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