Harness Racing Ontario - Mohawk specialty + other B tracks occasionally

What I decided with my SYSTEM BETS:

Backup Pick3s:

Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK3 1,4-6,9 / 1,2,7 /6,8    $6.00

Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK3 1,4-6,9 / 7 / 6,8    $2.00

Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK3 1,4-6,9 / 7 / 6,8    $2.00

Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK3 1,4-6,9 / 7 / 6,8    $2.00

PICK5s:

Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 1,4-6,9 / 1,2 / 4,5 / 1,3,4,7, 10 / 3    $24.00
Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 1,4-6,9 / 7 / 4,5 / 1,3,4,7,10 / 2,3    $20.00

#5 WON race 1 - paid 6-1  (program morning line = 8-1)

This is how much is in the P5 tonight (last night was over $180K) > Pick 5  $121,615

I messed up...forgot to put in fave in RACE 3 << that's an error on my part, otherwise I probably get this!

I get back $34 and also in Race 2, I did a $10 exactor 7 - 16 and it returned $60 but not official for system backups

I lost no money on the night as a result

Did not play SATURDAY due to a private function I was at where I needed my phone off throughout.....

Monday night: - wind push from NE which is favorable for outside post to leave, and all closers and front runners....WIDE OPEN RACING tonight in other words

RACE 1 - 7 HORSE FIELD

SYSTEM says: Take all except #4 and perhaps #1

TAKING: 

RACE 2 - 10 HORSE FIELD

SYSTEM says: Take 23457 > consider adding 3 Cameron Queen trained horses with very good drivers > 1, 6 and 8

TAKING: 2357 + All 3 Cameron McQueen trained horses 1,6,8

RACE 3 - 7 HORSE FIELD

SYSTEM says: Take ALL <<< no standout in that race and given the trip that each horse will have to drive and the front end battle that I anticipate, ANY horse can win

TAKING: ALL 7 horses except #1 who has a non - Mohawk driver now

RACE 4 - 10 HORSE FIELD

SYSTEM says: Take 125610 

TAKING: all those 5 horses + #8

RACE 5 - 10 HORSE FIELD and super tough race..... taking a 15-1 horse first time in claimers with a good driver 

TAKING >>> 34789 << PROGRAM guys says #7 is best bet at 8-1 morning line!

BIG TICKET trying to get this one....mulling if I just pass!

I think its just too tough tonight so this is a NON SYSTEM play I am making:

Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 6 / 2,3,5-8 / 3-5 / 2,5,6,10 / 4,7    $28.80

Race #1 winner >> #6! 

Amount in the Pool Tonight =  Pick 5  $160,572

My ticket and Backups:   

Feb 05, 2024
7:18 PM Bet 38480285822774 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 TRI  5,7 / 2,3,6 / 1-7  $6.00
Feb 05, 2024
7:17 PM Bet 70240112230159 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $5.00 EXA  3 / 6   $5.00

Feb 05, 2024
7:17 PM Bet 31316902613161 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 >   6 / 2,3,5-8 / 3-5 / 2,5,6,10 / 4,7    $28.80

I think I have a good payout alive to one horse in the last race... $35 stab at hitting a nice one!

Feb 05, 2024
7:17 PM Bet 31316902613161 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 > 6 / 2,3,5 7-8 / 3 - 5 / 2,5, 6,10 / 4,7 $28.80

OMG!!! 

I have #7 an #4 ....8 -1 morning line and 15- 1 morning line and they open favorite ahahahaha

Here are the payouts and present odds:

1
Donatover
10 $687.93 (5 of 5)
2
O Narutac Perfetto
29 $1,807.76 (5 of 5)
3
Nasey
13 $491.13 (5 of 5)
4
Kevin Anthony
4 $706.45 (5 of 5)
5
Im Above Average
43 $6,318.81 (5 of 5)
6
Meadowbranch Noble
12 $1,076.39 (5 of 5)
7
Buck Dancer
4/5 $395.66 (5 of 5)
8
Crossfit
10 $425.85 (5 of 5)
9
Chulo
13 $330.87 (5 of 5)
10
Warrawee Xalt
30 $656.18 (5 of 5)

ok...lots going on and now gonna show what I won and how much I spent. This WAS NOT a SYSTEM Pick5 ....the system is having a rough go in mid January and early Feb due to crazy longs coming in from the program so I am adapting somewhat since the ticket outlay to play the system is too high and its way too crazy now to hit one with so many long morning lines hitting....

 Race 5, my 15-1 morning line closed at race time as co-favorite and took the lead on #7 but then, #7 caught him in the stretch and won by 5 lengths easily!!

My Transactions
Feb 05, 2024
7:17 PM Bet 31316902613161 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 6 / 2,3,5-8 / 3-5 / 2,5,6,10 / 4,7 WIN >   $395.66 >> cost> $28.80

Tonight's win does not count for the system, but I won by infusing some longshots to carve out some much need cash infusion from grinding the past month or so.  

Thursday - used a simulation / too tough > counted result like I spent my money

Friday - played and adding to the total update now

past Saturday - did not look or play due to a function night and tough family day

Tonight - played but too tough, but I tried a small ticket for $28.80 and hit for $395 using a mix of faves and longshots here and there

SYSTEM UPDATE: - CONTINUE this Friday.....working on 2023 February and March results to compare with present times and will post last year's results using a pure system (no horses over 6-1 morning line, unlike my SYSTEM + infusion of the occasional longshot now.......WEATHER and track condition is weighing on morning line odds maker for the past 3-4 weeks!)

AFTER 18 x PICK5 SESSIONS of the NEW SYSTEM:

8 - 10

Highest Return: $1127+

Highest Just Miss (Jan 1,2023) = $4267+

Backup betting Costs = $386

System Ticket Investment= $1227

Recoveries from Backups: $936

(The point with recording this, I can use my cashflow to still make $$ and recover losses if PICK5 pending)

Recovered from PICK5 wins ($$) = $1976.10

Profit = + $1301    (if no backups Profit = $749)

Non System Pick 5 Profit Tries (1x) = +$354  (play when PICK5 just too expensive to find 2 KEY races) 

Just Looked back on the last 21 pick5's of 2024 and I see some unusual and incredible things, which speak to why I went off the SYSTEM tonight, but will go back to it, so long as the track is sturdy.

Since Jan 1, 2024:

-21 meets

- 2 weather cancellations

- 19 meets > 15 of 19 PICK5s had an 8 -1 or higher odds WIN at least of one race in the Pick5 which would disqualify my 

                    system UNLESS, I handicapped and the horse to pay to put in one of the races!

                >  6 of 19 PICK5's had 2x  8 - 1 or higher winners in the morning line which would not be picked up by my SYSTEM

                > only 4 PICK5s had a chance to win using the system, unless I handicapped like I did tonight and found some 

                   horses at higher odds

What do I expect going forward? This is change EXCEPT for Thursday or any other nights when they are boosting the payouts and I will take some long shots ......handicapping matters is what 2024 is telling us

15 out of 19 losing days is rough & I aprreciate you sharing the results.

It will be interesting to see the results if you pick a few 8-1 shots along with your system plays. One problem I see is that it becomes more expensive to make these plays.

However, hitting a couple early gives you some moolah allowing you to stay aggressive.

BOL! I'm rooting for ya!

Thanks bro ...interesting that you raised the question about what do I do about 10-1 and 8 - 1 and it has lead me to believe that, when the track is mucky or the air is cold, I should expect these 10-1, 15- 1 and 8-1 horses to have a shot in some selected races and cap for it and SEARCH FOR ONE KEY to guide me through not spending so much. Infusing my account drain by spending $30 the other night to win $395 was uplifting.

FAST track and not super cold, I use system....otherwise, adapt

Tonight I do something of a hi-bred but its within the system and counts

Got caught in an issue an hour before and did not end up playing but would have likely lost as I was going to take a bunch and only key #4 and #8 in Race 5 ...... ..one ticket I mapped out would have hit #1 in Race 5 ....but I doubt I would have played $150 in tickets tonight!

SYSTEM PICK5's I played tonight...mixed in the odd 8-1 or 10-1 playing many tickets.....alive after two races 

Alive Tickets:

Feb 10, 2024
7:12 PM  07789397201300 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 6 / 2,3,5-7,9 /1 6 / 3,4,6,8,10   $12.00

Feb 10, 2024
7:03 PM Bet 53901633387316 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 1,6 / 2,7 / 1,6 / 3,4,6,8,10   $8.00

Feb 10, 2024
6:42 PM Bet 58901102407752 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 6 / 2 / 4 / 3,4,6,10 $0.80

KILLED PICK5's:

Feb 10, 2024
7:01 PM Bet 56580828831519 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 5,10 / 3,6,7,9 / 7 / 3,4,6,8,10 $8.00
Feb 10, 2024
6:59 PM Bet 21907721312079 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 5 / 2 / 1,3-6 / 3,4,6,8,10 $5.00

Feb 10, 2024
6:39 PM Bet 14103660699063 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 1 / 2,3,5-7,9 / 4 / 3,4,6,8,10 $6.00

Feb 10, 2024
6:58 PM Bet 30618273973903 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 10 / 2 / 1,3-6 / 3,4,6,8,10 $5.00
Feb 10, 2024
6:50 PM Bet 96318755979562 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 4,7 / 1 / 6,7,9 / 7 / 6,10 $2.40
Feb 10, 2024
6:48 PM Bet 35636556344818 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 4,7 / 6 / 3,6,7,9 / 7 / 3,4,6,10 $6.40
Feb 10, 2024
6:46 PM Bet 28255626555110 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 4,7 / 1,6 / 2 / 4,6 / 3,4,6,10 $6.40
Feb 10, 2024
6:44 PM Bet 35897611364234 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 1 / 3,6,7,9 / 6,7 / 3,4,6,10 $6.40

SPENT $67 tonight wheeling some things....wish me luck

SYSTEM PICK5's I played tonight...mixed in the odd 8-1 or 10-1 playing many tickets.....alive after two races 

Alive Tickets:

Feb 10, 2024
7:12 PM  07789397201300 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 6 / 2,3,5-7,9 /1 6 / 3,4,6,8,10   $12.00

Feb 10, 2024
7:03 PM Bet 53901633387316 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 1,6 / 2,7 / 1,6 / 3,4,6,8,10   $8.00

Feb 10, 2024
6:42 PM Bet 58901102407752 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 6 / 2 / 4 / 3,4,6,10 $0.80

KILLED PICK5's:

Feb 10, 2024
7:01 PM Bet 56580828831519 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 5,10 / 3,6,7,9 / 7 / 3,4,6,8,10 $8.00
Feb 10, 2024
6:59 PM Bet 21907721312079 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 5 / 2 / 1,3-6 / 3,4,6,8,10 $5.00

Feb 10, 2024
6:39 PM Bet 14103660699063 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 1 / 2,3,5-7,9 / 4 / 3,4,6,8,10 $6.00

Feb 10, 2024
6:58 PM Bet 30618273973903 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 10 / 2 / 1,3-6 / 3,4,6,8,10 $5.00
Feb 10, 2024
6:50 PM Bet 96318755979562 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 4,7 / 1 / 6,7,9 / 7 / 6,10 $2.40
Feb 10, 2024
6:48 PM Bet 35636556344818 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 4,7 / 6 / 3,6,7,9 / 7 / 3,4,6,10 $6.40
Feb 10, 2024
6:46 PM Bet 28255626555110 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 4,7 / 1,6 / 2 / 4,6 / 3,4,6,10 $6.40
Feb 10, 2024
6:44 PM Bet 35897611364234 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 1 / 3,6,7,9 / 6,7 / 3,4,6,10 $6.40

SPENT $67 tonight wheeling some things....wish me luck

SYSTEM PICK5's I played tonight...mixed in the odd 8-1 or 10-1 playing many tickets.....alive after two races 

Alive Tickets:

Feb 10, 2024
7:12 PM  07789397201300 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 6 / 2,3,5-7,9 /1 6 / 3,4,6,8,10   $12.00

Feb 10, 2024
7:03 PM Bet 53901633387316 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 1,6 / 2,7 / 1,6 / 3,4,6,8,10   $8.00

Feb 10, 2024
6:42 PM Bet 58901102407752 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 6 / 2 / 4 / 3,4,6,10 $0.80

KILLED PICK5's:

Feb 10, 2024
7:01 PM Bet 56580828831519 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 5,10 / 3,6,7,9 / 7 / 3,4,6,8,10 $8.00
Feb 10, 2024
6:59 PM Bet 21907721312079 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 5 / 2 / 1,3-6 / 3,4,6,8,10 $5.00

Feb 10, 2024
6:39 PM Bet 14103660699063 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 1 / 2,3,5-7,9 / 4 / 3,4,6,8,10 $6.00

Feb 10, 2024
6:58 PM Bet 30618273973903 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 10 / 2 / 1,3-6 / 3,4,6,8,10 $5.00
Feb 10, 2024
6:50 PM Bet 96318755979562 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 4,7 / 1 / 6,7,9 / 7 / 6,10 $2.40
Feb 10, 2024
6:48 PM Bet 35636556344818 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 4,7 / 6 / 3,6,7,9 / 7 / 3,4,6,10 $6.40
Feb 10, 2024
6:46 PM Bet 28255626555110 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 4,7 / 1,6 / 2 / 4,6 / 3,4,6,10 $6.40
Feb 10, 2024
6:44 PM Bet 35897611364234 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2 / 1 / 3,6,7,9 / 6,7 / 3,4,6,10 $6.40

SPENT $67 tonight wheeling some things....wish me luck

Still alive ..... #2 won in the 3rd race

My method of wheelin some horses paid off, BECAUSE , I may not have put this #1 tonight in my card on a big ticket in RACE 4!

The horse won on a huge speed dual!!

Got 5 horses alive.....payouts will be $75-400 I think

The creativity I used got me the PICK5 2X @ $111 total payout.....

AFTER 19 x PICK5 SESSIONS of the NEW SYSTEM:

9 - 10

Highest Return: $1127+

Highest Just Miss (Jan 1,2023) = $4267+

Backup betting Costs = $386

System Ticket Investment= $1294

Recoveries from Backups: $936

(The point with recording this, I can use my cashflow to still make $$ and recover losses if PICK5 pending)

Recovered from PICK5 wins ($$) = $2087.10

Profit = + $1345 (if no backups Profit = $793)

Non System Pick 5 Profit Tries (1x) = +$354 (play when PICK5 just too expensive to find 2 KEY races)

PICK5 is still hitting around 40-50% beside one really bad month.....will report on 2023 March-April data to see what happened last year....

WE PROCEED!

2023 MOHAWK PICK5 RESULTS Analysis Part II:

A. - PERIOD > Thursday Dec 1, 2022 to Monday Jan 30, 2023

- 30 PICK5 attempts

- average payout of 26 of 30 potential winners using system 

= $308+ 

- potential to win 40-50% of 26 winners with system and the occasional selective longer shot added

--------------------------------------------------------------------

*** NEW DATA***

B. - PERIOD > Thursday Feb 2, 2023 to  Monday April 5, 2023-

-more upsets in this period

- higher average but a couple less chances  > 24 of 30 Pick5's could have potentially been hit with system

VERY INTERESTING COMPARIONS BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS IN THE NEXT POST and noted by me to consider going forward ....might view all racing since Dec 1 2023 to now to see if it is demonstrating the pattern I am seeing.

COMPARION:

                                                            PERIOD 1                     PERIOD 2
PICK5s w/ 8-1 or 10-1 morning line       10 out of 30               16 out of 30
PICK5s w/ 12-1 or higher morning line   2 out of 30                  4 out of 30
PICK5s w at least 2 races with top 2 faves   29 out of 30              24 out of 30
PICK5s w/ at least 3 races with top 2 faves  19 out of 30              20 out of 30
PICK5s w/ at least 4 races with top 2 faves   10 out of 30              8 out of 30

*** no PICK5s with all Top 2 ML faves (0 - 60)
Avg payout for P5 multiple middle faves (4-1+)  > Not calcu.          8x $1023.33 avg
Race number with top 2 faves winning          > Not calcu.          Race 2 /3 (both 20/ 30)
Best race for a middle odds fave                   > Not calcu.          Race 4/ 5
Average successful/achievable payout           >  $308                > $481

BOTTOM LINE.... the system will have to adjust with finding 1 favourite to KEY ....if not, 2 races with 2 horses only in them at 5-2 and 7-2 morning line or 3-1 and 7-2

RACE 4 seems to determine payouts with middle faves....less so in race 1

RACE 1 seems to always have 70% of the time, an odds dropper and often, but not always, the favorite

RACE 2 tends to yield mostly favorites ....consider this to cut down on ticket size OR chasing a 6-1 to 10-1 horse

Finailly......it is PROFITABLE and PRUDENT to select a 8-1 or 10-1 horse in at least one of  race 3, 4 or 5 (once in a while) and sometimes and middle fave (4-1 to 8-1 morning line) that has ODDS dropping in race 1

I will continue to update quarters and especially, begin to work on the next 30 days starting a warming spring period from April 8 2023 to middle to the end of May 2023......and more beyond that, always recording my results in chart form to discern for patterns

Monday Feb 12 Capping thoughts:

RACE 1 - tough tough race with so many variables

#1 - ML fave but likely leaving out because, the horse has not responded well to racing older trotters, after dominating younger ones.....coming off a break and has the rail....will have to be driven too carefully and probably will get buried with the flow I see happening in this race

#2 - fit like its competitiveness has shown the last 4 races, and strong trot driver

#3 - consistent and moving up but worthy like the other one Sylvain drives and has moved up to FFA trotters already

#4 - sneaky horse and gets aggressive driver on trotters in Doug McNair with trot specialist trainer > 10-1 morning line and middle of the gate ... 200 at London with 1 second wind means, Dougie has enough horse power to race at 1:55 easily

#5 - Trevor back and likely hungry to have a strong night....middle of the gate with a trotter who likes to leave and won over $100K in earnings last year .... 2 weeks off means the horse will be chomping at the bit to race !

#6 - middle of the gate with former hot horse who went to vet and JMAC driving !

#7 - dangerous trotter....know Bruce Richardson and the owner Joe Coffey personally and they have a good one here. 9 wins of 23 last year, was given to JMAC to drive once and he got a 1:55 out of the horse and blasted 2 times from around this post. I expect the horse to move for position again and come with cover ... reason why the horse is 5 - 1 morning line

#8 - in too deep vs a rich group

LEANING toward 4-6 horses here and will watch the odds playout ....definitely doing a PICK3 with 127, IF I decide to only take horses 3456 which is how I am leaning

- a part of me thinks like the program capper, this is really a 2 horse race down the stretch between #5 and #6 (respect this capper and always look at what they pick after I cap my thoughts)

RACE 2 - looking closely at top 2 horses like my research tells me its likely best in this race

- I envision a scenario here of very fast first half fractions and ONE HORSE sweeping the field with his excellent kick, back class and strong trainer having him ready.....can I trust Doug McNair to be patient and not just blast the horse himself? If so, this race could become wide open

-if McNair is reading this program, he will see that #8 will blast out of there with a tight horse from Flamboro and front running driver in Ed Henley.....it will battle #3 and #4 for position.... #7 could benefit with cover which might be supplied by JMAC or other

-#4 hung in its last race despite moving at a fast first half of 156 ....the horse is back to being sound!

STill think you have to take 3 horses > #3,4, 7 AND not just KEY #7 although you get a hot trainer who is much better than the previous one! MIGHT KEY #7 on another ticket with 2-3 horses in the first race

Backup bet on # 5689 either flat or a PICK3 play....using first race picks

RACE 3 - i see 2-3 possible winners, but logically, I think you could KEY #5 if you feel he can make the front easily and hold position...... but does the horse have what it takes to hold off older FFA horses??? << BURNING QUESTION

-will #1 or #2 pull on him just before the half? If I were to guess, it would be #1......Borth may just sit tight on the rail as the horse always does and hopes for a speed battle.

#7 is knocking on the door big time....and Christoforou tightened up #4 last race AND STILL HAD some in the tank for the home stretch ....he is the BEST TROT DRIVER in this race in my opinion and this is the kind of race he capitalizes on

-#2 at 2-1 morning line had only 4 wins last year and 10 second places.....which tells me, the horse is inconsistent finishing a race so not way am I going to miss a chance for an upset play to add in here by taking it to win back to back races

LIKELY TAKING > 1457

RACE 4 - SEEMS LIKE THE MOST OBVIOUS FAVE ...but ***BEWARE***

-many a good PICK5 tickets were destroyed on these types of situations

-Ron Cullen as a trainer is fire hot and so is Travis because its winter and he is dynamite in cold weather!

-horses are shaving 1-3 seconds in some races....so #8 is a KEY

RACE 5 - anything can happen if the drivers play around in this one....but logically, I expect #4 and #6 to stay out of any unusual situations and if they do get upset, these horse have a shot: #1,2 3, 5 and #8 or #9 ....but,  I am inclined to throw in #5 in the middle gate with an aggressively driving Phil Hudon lately.....and with success!

Likely 2 tickets I will play:

1,2,3,4,5,6,7 with 3,4,7 with 1,4,5,7 with 8 KEY with 46 = $33.60

1234567 with 7 with  157 with 59 with 46 = $18.80

RACE 1 PICK3 BACKUP > 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 with 689 with 157 = $12.60

Did not win the other night.....will update tonight or tomorrow

Did not play last night due to a strong later afternoon storm and figured they would not run with traffic bad but they did.....and remember what I said on stormy nights....BOMBS away! Hard to cap and they proved it carving out all kinds of surprises and the PICK5 paid $48 000 + for a 20 cent ticket

COLD NIGHT TONIGHT - NW wind which means horses that move well in the first half will hustle BUT WE NOW KNOW this is not ideal in cold air!

I am looking for closers and mid pack horses off the gate for some upsets!

RACE 1 - 237 

*** LOVE #7 as a betting horse....when stakes racing comes and they put on a top driver, LOOKOUT for this horse as it has all kinds of talent and late race horse power!

RACE 2 - tempted to only take 34 because that was my inclination when I first looked.....2 strong qualifiers and don't be fooled by #3 not trying much in his....this horse is a $57K animal with a strong young horse trainer and driver who had breaking issues last year so they drove him evenly .....program capper agrees with me which is a strong sign but I think #5 has a shot and #2 is dangerous with first time DOUG MCNAIR who has history with this horse!

TAKE > 2345   ...do a backup PICK3 with #1, #7 and #8 ... program capper giving Jason Libby respect because he knows that when they come to Mohawk, they are ready and shave 4-6 seconds from their London hometrack performances 

...might even take 6-7 horses in this race....

RACE 3 - Like most of the horses but...

TAKE > 125678

RACE 4 - only like 4 horses...

TAKE >126  ...maybe #4 BUT others are stakes or have one more race in them 

RACE 5 > think you might need 3-4 horses here

Take 235 for sure and consider dropper /huge driver change on #8