FORMULA 1 THREAD 2014

Hey Alan don't forget that Force India loves this track so maybe Perez might be a sleeper for top ten etc.

Perez is just a tough guy to get behind.  He's not the best driver on his own team, and I see lots of guys to finish ahead of him.  It's somewhat tempting, but I just can't bring myself to pull the trigger 

Qualifying was weird.  It rained all morning, and we get some weird results.  With the car setups, tyre decisions, and everything else involved here are my final thoughts.

It should be a dry race tomorrow, and several guys will do better tomorrow than they did in qualifying, like the Williams cars in particular.

Vettel's car had problems in the practices, but they seem to have fixed the issue.  He looks great as does Ricciardo.

Mercedes should absolutely run away with this race if they don't wreck each other.

I'm going to add Vettel top 6 -275

And just to see how good I am at reading these drivers interviews, I'm going to put just a bit on Hamilton to win.  He said something that struck me in the post-qualifying interview, and I'll see if I'm right about this.  Just a really little bet to see how good I am.  If I'm right, I feel great...If I'm wrong...only a tiny loss.

GL if you're going to get up and watch the race with me!  And even if you're not going to get up and watch, GL as well. 

Ferrari29

When are you going to change your avatar to a proper Ferrari logo?

Good luck Alan.  

Thank you sir

Adding Grosjean over Maldonado

I know they are just racing and they both want to win...but what are Hamilton and Rosberg doing? Two laps in and they take each other out...unreal.

Damn...Hamilton ripped Rosberg in the post race. Wow. Rosberg got booed at the podium as well. The rest of the season should be really good!

Both Rosberg and Magnussen should bet penalized for what they've done.
Anyway alan,dont you think all these incidents one after another seem like almost set ups?Everything is like made to draw the attention of the media;and from a betting stand-point,the fact that lewis hamilton(and even rosberg this time) doesn t win races and championship can only favour the bookmakers.

*about incidents,i was referring the ones to hamilton

I believe we've been through this in my NBA Pacers thread

The accidents are not set up.  Guys are driving for championships and million dollar contracts.  Teams are having to answer to sponsors putting up hundreds of millions of dollars.  They aren't going to purposely cause an accident.  And I don't know how many times I have to say it...just because a bet goes against the public doesn't mean the books were behind it.  Maybe it was just a bad bet.  F1 doesn't need any help with ratings or money.  And the books don't need any help making money.  They are all doing just fine.  And like I've said a million times in the NBA forum to guys that blame the refs, or the league, or the players for "fixing games" whenever they lost a bet.  When you lost a bet, don't look for excuses...look for reasons.  If your excuse is that the books cheated, then you didn't learn anything, and you'll keep making the same mistake.  I came out a little behind this race with Alonso and Hulkenberg losing for me, so I need to analyze why that happened, and adjust. 

Rosberg made a stupid move, but Hamilton didn't exactly make a smart move by trying to force the issue in a tough passing area on the second lap.  F1 doesn't have to manufacture drama.  They've had drama among their starts for decades, and it looks like we are getting ready to see a rivalry for the rest of the season with these two.

I lost a bet because Mag ran Alonso off the road, but he should absolutely not be penalized.  He's allowed to race.  I just don't get F1 and F1 fans sometimes with the passing issue.  Magnussen did everything he could to hold off a superior car and superior driver, and did just that.  Instead of saying he should be penalized, F1 fans should be applauding the move, and should be wanting more of it.  We've seen it from Vettel and now from Alonso where these experienced guys get mad when the youngers guys don't just pull over and let them pass.  If you're really that much better than the guy in front of you, then prove it and pass them.  Just like the great Ric Flair always said..."To Be the man...you've got to beat the man".  In other words, if you're the guy attempting to pass you gotta earn it. 

Hey Alan I'm always on my phone its just words and times, no avatar or pics. Hey didn't Hulk and Alonso move up after the Mag's penalty.

And about Magsnussen and his move. Besides it being Alonso and Ferrari, anybody who drives a guy into the grass needs to be black flag.

It looks like they did officially move up.  Hulkenberg moves up to 10th, and Alonso moves up to 7th.  Wow...that Hulkenberg change of position made this a profitable race. 

I still don't agree with the decision.  I'd prefer to see entertaining racing rather than guys pulling over and letting somebody go by.

I agree with the hard clean racing, but putting someone into the grass reminds me of Schumacher!!!

Italian Grand Prix this week!

It's a pretty simple looking course with an emphasis on qualifying.  History tells us if you qualify well, you're going to finish well.  The winner of the race will probably come from qualifying position 1 or 2...and the start is one of the most exciting in all of F1.  The first turn is a sharp chicayne, and there's no way everyone makes it through there with no incident.  Someone's going to get run off course, tyre popped, or front wing damaged. 

But first, let's go into a little "Betting F1 101".  Now is the time of year where the books really adjust the odds.  Instead of getting a guy top 6 at -200...it's up to -350, and so on.  So what happens (at least from my perspective) is that I make way fewer bets per race, and I won't be making any bets before qualifying as the odds are too bad.  Got lucky last week and turned a small profit, but honestly I don't think I should've as my bets weren't great.

The Hulkenberg top 10 train is over it looks like.  The odds don't justify it, and he needs help to finish in the top 10.  I'm going to list the guys with cars as good or better than him.  Rosberg, Hamilton, Ricciardo, Vettel, Alonso, Raikkonen, Bottas, Button, Perez, Magnussen, Massa.  He needs to beat out, or hope at least 2 of these guys wreck, and I just don't think taking him at -250 is worth it as his car has not gotten better over the year, but others have.

No early bets for me on this race...hoping to find something juicy this weekend.

Side Note for this race:  Most guys will try and do this race in only 1 stop.  This track can be tough on tyres, but not tough enough to deter teams from doing the 1 stop strategy.  If Mercedes gets out to a big lead, I can see them doing 2 stops if they think they can get in and out and still keep the lead.  That would be around the 30 second lead mark.  Something to look out for I guess.

Good stuff Alan.   Are you running a pacers thread this year 

I look for kimi and Alonso to really push the Red Bulls here!!!! If they can get through turn one look out.

Rosberg and Hamilton is starting to look like Prost and Senna more and more!!!

One more thing as usual Massa in fade mode every race now. I'm glad Ferrari moved him out!!!

I doubt massa to be in fade mode now,he'll probably finish at last fourth if there aren t incidents.He just has been very unlucky this year.
My only bet for now is Massa on Alonso/Button/Raikkonen @2.50 Bwin.
Hope Magnussen won't make crazy moves this time

Of course!  It was a great thread with fantastic participation.  All positive, and I think everyone learned a lot.  Probably the best season long thread I've seen on Covers. 

I'm being cautious with betting these races as the year moves on because I see the books adjusting the lines...however I found 2 I absolutely love after qualifying. 

Alonso -190 top 6
Fernando Alonso has been very quick in practice, and as we all know he's hungry to finish good at this track.  I love the -190 odds because it looks like the Red Bulls don't have the speed this week to both be in the top 6.  I look for him to challenge for top 3 actually.

Kimi Raikkonen top 10 +225
This line is based only on qualifying, and they clearly didn't take practice times into account.  Kimi was seventh fastest in practices 3 and 1, and third fastest in the second practice.  He's got the car to be top 10 after the first turn if he stays clean, and he's been faster than the Red Bulls all week.  It's rare to take +money on an F1 bet, but I love this one.

I'll wait for matchups and see if I see anything else. 

Ferrari and Geezer-I made a vow last year never to be involved in a Massa bet every again.  Every time I bet on him he's terrible...every time I fade him he comes out of nowhere.  It's the same with the Atlanta Hawks in the NBA, and San Diego Chargers in the NFL.  I've learned my lesson. 

https://mobile.formula1.com/news/features/2014/9/16315(qualyfing analysis)

Love your bets today alan(even if i dont believe alonso even remotely close to the podium ;) ). Those great lines are from 5 dimes?
I have -250 raikkonen top10 on the greek xD