No Double Up 1pm play >> **FADE PLAY #1 > Central Arkansas +22.5 x HALF U
- have plenty of data now and going to use it judiciously in spots
- Teams that are ranked 91 - 120th which is where GTech is ranked...... are 1-5 ATS with a line of -21 to -25.5
- also, when teams ranked 91-120th play teams ranked 281- 330th (C.Ark is 325th) > favorite is only 7 - 12 ATS
This week Results (closes tomorrow): 3 - 1 (+3 Units) so far, including today
..... more to come using my ranking/spread analysis
Wed > Marquette -34.5x 2U 
Sat > Seton Hall Under 128 x 1U 
** Double Up Saturday ** (not necessary)
On Deck:
Wisconsin -34 x HALF U 
**Double Up play**
**FADE Favorite play > Central Arkansas +22.5 x HALF U (no double up)
Sunday Plays: 5 Pt Teaser x HALF U each > pay 2.10 each winner
San Fran -23.5 with Under 153.5 Portland with Middle Tenn +12.5
San Fran -23.5 with North Florida +20.5 with Fairleigh D +11.5
San Fran -23.5 with Troy -1.5 with Fairleigh D +11.5
San Fran -23.5 with Norfolk E with Maryland -26.5
Maryland Over 133 with Norfolk E with Middle Tenn +12.5
UPDATE in afternoon:
Sunday Plays: 5 Pt Teaser x HALF U each > pay 2.10 each winner
San Fran -23.5 with Under 153.5 Portland with Middle Tenn +12.5
San Fran -23.5 with North Florida +20.5 with Fairleigh D +11.5 
San Fran -23.5 with Troy -1.5 with Fairleigh D +11.5
San Fran -23.5 with Norfolk E 
with Maryland -26.5
Maryland Over 133 with Norfolk E with Middle Tenn +12.5
Sunday Plays: 5 Pt Teaser x HALF U each > pay 2.10 each winner
San Fran -23.5 with Under 153.5 Portland with Middle Tenn +12.5 NOPE OT killed my total
San Fran -23.5 with North Florida +20.5 
with Fairleigh D +11.5 
NOPE
San Fran -23.5 with Troy -1.5 with Fairleigh D +11.5
San Fran -23.5 with Norfolk E with Maryland -26.5
Maryland Over 133 with Norfolk E with Middle Tenn +12.5
San Fran is in trouble!! How are you down to the 5th worse team in college who PLAYED LAST NIGHT and the reason why I took this play facing a rested home juggernaut. Marcyhurst won last night and they are leading at half tonight 
San Fran winner with Tease...they won by 28
3- 2 TEASERs = $300 laid > $378 return...made some money. There were no trends that really made sense to go ATS
Speaking of, after inputting data all the way back over 30 days I found this best stuff despite not caring if a team is on the road or at home. Its all about what is the line vs the rank zone they are in:
Rank Zones are: Best Faves and Fade bets
#1-20 >> pounce on rank #1- 20 when the line is -16 to -20.5 (tip: don't buy too early because I find when they go out of this zone they don't cash ) = 7 - 1 ATS on Favorite
#21-40 >> 10 - 4 ATS when line is -3 to - 5.5
#41-65 >> when favorite on any spread, they are 7 - 3 ATS vs an opponent from the same rank zone of #41-65
- fade them vs any team in this rank zone vs a team 231 - 280th (7 - 14 ATS)
- take points when facing a team ranked #1- #20 as they are 10- 3 with taking points
#66-90 >> fade them vs any team in this rank zone vs a team 231 - 280th (6 - 16 ATS)
#91-120 >> fade them vs any team in this rank zone vs a team 151 - 190th (10 - 18 ATS)
- fade them vs any team when they are favorites by -21 to -25.5 (1 - 6 ATS)
- - fade them vs any team when they are favorites by -6 to -10.5 (15 - 28 - 1 ATS)
Will offer a nugget here and there but don't want to give away all my secrets and then lines go out of their zones and lose
- will update better situations for the higher ranks later in the week
Handicapping Monday tonight and may have some lines to grab before 1 am
Monday Night games:
UMBC @ Georgetown - 14.5 >> tricky line because, the 2 best teams that Georgetown have faced shooting the 3 pt .... lost by 8 and beat Georgetown
- I am leaning to the OVER in this one because UMBC have played mostly weak teams like GT but have hit the 3 pt at 15th best....might fade GT here as well
-letting this line and total brew over night
Loyola Maryland @ Coppin St. Play #1 UNDER 131.5 x 1U and Play #2 LM -6 x Half U
-LM doesn't have to run up scores....they play strong defense and control tempo and the only time they had to score more than 72 pts was versus a strong shooting home team and that is not Coppin St.
- I see a score like 69 - 59 or 74 - 55 at worst if they are getting fouled a lot and going to the line a lot
Might have some more....just want to get this in
Monday Play #3 - Colorado -16.5 x HALF U
-Pacific with 3rd game in 5 nights and now has to skip a time zone and play at elevation
-they will be happy with 2 wins but notice they get outclassed vs Top 60 teams by this spread or more
Play #4 - Drexel ML parlay with Loyola Maryland ML pays 2.56 x HALF U for a nice profit of $92 if I get both
Loyola Maryland @ Coppin St. Play #1 UNDER 131.5 x 1U and Play #2 LM -6 x Half U
That should have read: > UMBC +22 > 5 pt x HALF U:
Loy MD +22 with Coppin St Under 137.5 with Washington St. +17 << pays back $66 profit for HALF U ($60 bet) 
- I got cute and over thought the Georgetown dominance vs a low rank and good metrics ....excellent 3 pt shooting vs weak teams will not always translate vs the top 100 teams with speed
Play #4 - Drexel ML parlay with Loyola Maryland ML pays 2.56 x HALF U
Colorado Play #3 looks dead in the water too which makes it a EVEN night....looking at tomorrow now and might post later
Plays Tuesday:
Play #1 > Boston College +4.5 x 1U
Teaser 5 pt - Half U each: - profit = +1U
Delaware St +17.5 with Arkansas +0.5 with Akron -1.5:
a. Florida AM +9.5
b. Northwestern +10
c. UNC Greensboro Under 143.5
d. Over George M. 136.5
e. St Josephs - 1
Play #2 - Winthrop-Queens Under 156.5 x HALF U ....their shooting stats are both meh....but they can both play defense
That's enough for now...and all early night games.....might look for some sides or totals for night matchups later
c.
0-2 ATS (-1.5 U) on sides 
Teaser >> booked all 3 KEYS correctly although DSU was giving me a heart attack because their ranking difference is not drastic and I can look back over the past 10 games and don't see a loss by them by more than 12 pts....hence, fairly safe to use as a TEASER KEY +5 points
Teaser 5 pt - Half U each: - profit per winning play = +1U
Delaware St +17.5 with Arkansas +0.5 with Akron -1.5:
a. Florida AM +9.5 +1U
b. Northwestern +10 +1U
c. UNC Greensboro Under 143.5 +1U
d. Over George M. 136.5 NO -0.5 U
e. St Josephs - 1 NO -0.5 U
+2 U profit on Teasers
Made $33 on the night which gives me mixed feelings considering I thought I had a big night on the line. 4 Way Teasers are the way to go to smooth out bad SIDES/TOTALS nights but you have to be super selective in who you put in and cannot play these every night....its harder than it looks
WOW - what a game schedule night tonight!!! Some thoughts:
- on a night like tonight, I suggest only working with the teams you are getting to know and think you know well from watching or following them in game how they play
- CONFERENCE PLAY is seeping in.....lots of BIG10 games have started so you have to look at head to head to know how a certain coach handles his team vs another with the better programs or rivalries in all conferences. Dispel what you know and have learned through NON-CONF matchups and tourneys...especially games on neutral courts << come back and look at these before March Madness because they tell you how their talent is to start the year! < throw reliance on talent out the window in conference play because crowd, coaching style and toughness in 1-2 players that you ride matters more
-I have circled 16 games I am going to focus on tonight because I know them well....and have followed either in a matchup by watching or following every bucket in game....which I enjoy doing online to get flow and how they perform in 5 minute segments rather than be awed by certain players
These are the games where I think a team style this year, give them an edge tonight (And I know tendencies this year):
-Marquette @ Iowa St
-Mich St @ Minny
-Kansas @ Creighton
-Oregon @ USC
-Rider @ Fairfield
-Coppin St @ Wagner
-Ohio st @ Maryland
I think I have an edge in these games looking the lines or TOTALS and going to play likely on them but must further inspect
-there are 9 other games that I think I can find an edge
-and going to look at all other games using my ranking and spread correlation results to find 1-2 more
Back soon with some plays this afternoon....
These are the games where I think a team style this year, give them an edge tonight (And I know tendencies this year):
-Marquette @ Iowa St
-Mich St @ Minny
-Kansas @ Creighton
-Oregon @ USC
-Rider @ Fairfield
-Coppin St @ Wagner
-Ohio st @ Maryland >> #31 @ #37 >> favorite is only 3 - 6 ATS when they face off in the similar ranking category BUT, the favorite in this rank category is winning a -5.5 to -3 spread at a 10-4 ATS record
-this tells me that I need to not move on this yet until I see the line fall....but I see risk in taking home team although Maryland is a very fierce home court and have a tradition of winning any game against any team there most of the time .... they have scoring talent to not run dry on bucket making this year....unlike some years where they shoot dry for stretches
-Ohio St is traditionally a very strong home court and average on the road playing at .500 mostly in this scenario but this is the most talented team statistically in a while but all of those stats are derive in Non Conf schedule..... Marquette beating Maryland on their court
Like the DOG here with pts and maybe ML sprinkle on parlays that I won't post but plan to use with Kansas, Sparty,Fairfield, Columbia or Oregon tonight....still have to figure that out : - Maryland faced a tough Texas AM team that can play well on both sides of the ball and got torched for 40 FTs from the line...... Ohio St does not have as good of FT stats but they do have fantastic shooting stats and if Maryland will have to play them tight and force likely a lot of fouls ....they got smoked by Texas AM due to giving away too many free shots and not executing vs a tough defense and the stats show me that Ohio St can play tough defense on shooters!
-Marquette is an excellent shooting team....and Maryland lost by 4 recently to them, at home
PLAY #1 - Ohio St +5.5 x 1U ...need to grab these points before the half point falls
Coppin St @ Wagner
-first true home game this year for Wagner who has faced 4 tough teams in the TOP 100
- against those 4 teams, they held their opponent to an average of 60-65 pts (Coppin St. is one of the worst offenses in college and especially at home..... Wagner has proven to hold good shooting teams to low scores
-vs Coppin, I doubt Coppin hits 50 pts and even if they get 51-54 pts, I then would project Wagner to score 65-75 pts in a more efficient offensive game like they had vs Boston on the road scoring 60 ....this time, Coppin St is a weaker defense but know how to resist fast scoring I noticed
Should Wagner get a minimum 60 pts on Coppin ST. > YES!!
Wagner is ranked 80 ranks better and I see their offense getting a move on but a leopard does not change its spots when it comes to their offensive sets.....expect their coach to preach to them to be efficients and look for the easy bucket and having followed Coppin St in their last game and faded them ....went for the UNDER, I can tell you that their opponent last game did not always score early in the shot clock and I doubt WAGNER will
-but Wagner should have enough success to score 70 pts as they scored 60 vs a slightly better ranked Boston team on the road for a win
Play #2 - Wagner -11.5 x HALF U and LEAN to the OVER 116.5 but no play yet
- looks like the OVER is starting to take hold after 3 pm
Play #3 - OVER Iowa St 152 x 1U
-this Iowa St team is atypical of past years and they love to score....they can play defense like Marquette can finally this year, but both teams preference is to revel in the offense and make plays/score baskets
Parlays << I feel I should press on these but just going to use them as cash builders
Kansas ML with Oregon ML > pays 2.2 x HALF U
Sparty ML with Oregon ML > pays 2.1 x HALF U
Kansas destroys a poor shooting Creighton team this year and Kansas can play defense, score inside or outside ....cannot say the same as Creighton from early indications > ADD Play #4 Kansas -3.5x HALF U ....they have a deep bench and strong rotation but going easy because I know every once in a while the Jayhawks cough up a fur ball on the road and already have them winning in a parlay
USC is a strange team and these two teams are rivals....I already know how good the DUCKS are if they can go into a rivals building, go down by almost 10 pts to the Beavers for much of the game and storm back to win by a few....that is a tough and talented team. And that is NOT USC but stranger things have happened .....
Look at the Ohio St and Columbia game scores...... 
Throw the analysis in the garbage !! Haha.... one team gives up 55 and can't score vs the inferior team and one scores 17 and gives up 50 ...what a joke
But like horse racing, you have to expect it which is why you should rarely ever PRESS on a game that looks easy on paper or horse race for that matter
Kansas game feels like a 'fix' and here is why.....how do you explain Kansas not going to the foul line when they play top 10 teams by driving to the hoop or feeding Dickinson??? How is Dickinson not getting any fouls inside to shoot at the line where he is good?
I am following it in game but cannot see the play...just the scoring flow and data
Tough night Wed, one that makes you shake your head when I reflect on how the OVER play turned out especially in the second half = -2 U Sides/Totals > made $10 on parlay
Looking at Thursday games .... but no promise I will have anything until just before game time because my sides a cold right now for some reason despite referring to my data to support my notions.
I am tracking every game played (result and rank of who plays whom)
I see something THURSDAY that I can rely on from instinct and sure enough....a check of head to head of this conference rivalry shows that maybe VEGAS has made a mistake here...
Play #1/2 - Oakland-Wright St. OVER 137 x HALFU and Wright St +1U
- like Wright St here on the side as well
-they have never shown an opening total this low in the past 10 days and both of them are ranked in the mid 150's and so a tight game of offense is likely here trading buckets with the strong team offensively as the road team
-in 2022 the total was set at 145 and the game ended at 138 total
-Wright St with a good offense here and Oakland has been on the road a lot and I don't see them playing a grinding game vs a rival who can score.....they will have to trade buckets
Providence -2 x 1U
-will be on them for a while now if I see a short line or a home court line under -10 vs a weaker competitor
-Bryce Hopkins is back after 1 game and this game he will play most of it after playing 25 min in the last one.....top 10 draft pick and very reliable with the ball /shooter
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