1 - 1 on a thin betting night +0.5 U gain........ I will not press or take lines on hunches. Maybe later in the season after watching a lot of games or getting a feel of how teams perform under certain conditions
I have some ideas lined up here for Tuesday, but generally last night I saw Vegas setting lines into the worse numbers statistically
Hoping for some line movement 
I will not commit until later after line movement:
In the meantime, I see strong value in the these Teaser Plays $30 each (5 pts teased)
KEY FAU +10 with Kansas -0.5 with:
1. Baylor -11
2. TCU -10.5
3. Baylor Over 145.5
4. Kansas Over 145.5
5. Colorado St -16.5
Still lining things up but this is enough for now in the afternoon
Sides I am considering but watching lines for now and have my teasers (see post above):
Stays or increases > Play Baylor -16
Maybe if increases > Villanova -3
Stays or drops > TCU -15.5
Providence stays or drops > Providence -22
if drops 1 pt or more > Colorado St -21.5
Still digging for more ...
Other Value lines based on rank performance tonight but likely not playing:
Clemson -22
Florida Atlantic ML >> I have some parlays with +5.5 set last night
Mississippi St -25.5
Will post some more in one hour and lets see how they did with ranking and spread bias....I have to run to an appointment
RESULTS tonight: - if I assumed that every trend will work out based on what past data has produced and played everything, I would have lost a lot of cash thinking I had the complete formula to find EVERY PLAY. I was cautious and decided to skip SIDES because I had TOO many selections and knew that when this happens, you tend to only hit 4-6 out of every 10. It was better to craft some ideas with what I found. Tomorrow I likely go back to sides when it feels like its right.
That is the way in gambling, sometimes instinct is better than good data
You still have to be selective instead of filling your bag with plays and hopium
Teaser Plays $30 each (5 pts teased)
KEY FAU +10 
with Kansas -0.5 with:
1. Baylor -11 
+$33
2. TCU -10.5 
- $30
3. Baylor Over 145.5 +$33
4. Kansas Over 145.5 +$33
5. Colorado St -16.5 TBD $150 invested = $189 return so far
Belmont good value here coming up..... ML value > $20 x 3.3 = $+66 profit (will take a stab once in a while and keep track with standard $20 bet ) 
Good start to my ML value plays << did it by winning by 1 pt 
My Plays for Wed night:
Play #1 - Wofford -4.5 @ Presbyterian > parlay ML with OV 146 pays +175 x HALF U
- 8 - 1 ATS are teams ranked 151 - 190th getting a spread of -3 to -5.5
- I see Presbyterian like to score and have a terrible defense so I will just lower my risk and take ML with Over
Play #2 Western Illinois - 2 x HALF U << strong ATS bias in this ranking situation
Play #3 TEASER 5 pts for $30 and pays HALF U return > Hofstra +10 with UC Santa B -7.5 with Wright St +12 with Texas Tech -14.5 << very strong ATS bias between -15 to -20.5 BUT a lot of these lines recently have just missed in the past couple of nights around -17 to -20 so I am buying some comfort here
HOFSTRA was my ML VALUE consideration because Seton Hall has not cracked 60 pts scoring yet ..... this pays +170 so you are welcome to try but I think I will use in my TEASER ....might kick myself 
Sure enough, my gut and selections were not in alignment although I still have a shot at the TEASER with UC Santa Barbara having to win by 8 pts and they are doing so right now in the 2nd half
Hofstra beat Seton Hall so I chose correctly but it was not laid as my ML VALUE play
Will keep trying to look for that perfect night!
My plays tonight:
South Dakota St Jackrabbits -3.5 x 1U << traditionally a very strong home court no matter the strength of the team
-in this case, they are rated higher than N.Colorado
-I may use the Total in a Teaser since both teams can generate points and have been in medium to high scoring games
Strong lean to Seattle -4.5 @ Cal Poly who give up many points but road faves have hit a snag lately despite good rank metrics and offensive stats
Teaser 5 pt: - $30 each
Seattle Over 146 with Buffalo +11.5 with Arizona St +10.5
SDST Over 148 with Seattle +0.5 with Robert Morris -4
Pacific - 0.5 with UNLV -12 with Arizona St +10.5
Off to a losing beginning so I slowed it down for at least a few days.....inputted more data.
Today I had the following spreads as ripe from my data but only as simulation: (I have not checked results since I was at some watch parties for Bills -KC and then the Grey Cup game)
Not sure what the closing numbers were for these:
Stonehill -2
UC Santa -6.5
St. John's -9
Princeton -5.5
EWU -5
USC -8.5
Washington -10
Manhattan -1
W.Kentucky -5.5
Miss St -7.5
Hawaii -5
11 games ...........
Would have been terrible day so it might be time to work on the FADE lines for a while and work opposite some winning ATS lines and rank matchups. A combo of both of them might produce over 60% winning sides until things settle out.
The only RANK category that is consistently doing well is RANKED TEAMS #1 - #20 who are 33 - 18 ATS against any type of line ATS as a favorite
Plays on Wed: - HALF U each > 2- 3 - 1 in official plays Tues plus I got the unofficial Binghampton +7.5
Richmond -8.5
NC AT T - 7.5
Fairleigh Dick +6.5
South Dakota -1.5
$30 parlay > Murray St Ov 148 and Gonzaga -34
$30 parlay > Md Shore +25.5 and Gonzaga Over 151.5 ......Zaga will want to shake off the yicky tight game feel playing Aztecs the other night and Long Beach St can score but also have trouble scoring in stretches
Add also UNDER 152 Grand Canyon
UC DAVIS +17
Faves starting to hit more than 50% now which indicates to me the rankings are being solidified and lines more closer to what they should be
- most lines that are UNDER -8 are not hitting for the favorite > Monday = 11 - 15 ATS for faves
Working on Tues- Thursday now
Saturday Play #1 - Seton Hall Under 128 x 1U
** Double Up Saturday ** >> lose the first game, 2nd pick becomes a 2 Unit Play and if I lose that one and love another, I will play a 4 Unit Play (maybe if risk to lose is low in my data)
Seton Hall has a particular style and stick with it....I don't see Monmouth scoring more than 54 pts and likely lower than 50 given the fact they have not won any game
-all games by Seton tend to be low scoring on their end and even if they break out, their coach will ask them to play for open shot using the clock
- start of new Double UP
1 pm: Play #1 - Wisconsin -34 x HALF U << smaller bet
-first game that Wisky plays a week team rated over 330th and almost every top 25 rated team beats these easily by over 35 pts and my ATS tracking indicates this
>> teams in the TOP 20 rankings and DRatings has Wisky at #18 have gone 11 - 3 ATS with a spread between -31 and -35
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