April 07, Championship Final: SC vs Iowa
Imo, Lady Gamecocks are the better team on paper, for sure. Not by a whole lot mind you!! But they are the better team. Effective inside, outside and defense. Probably hold the edges both inside and defensively, while Lady Hawkeyes should have the edge from the arc -- which is a big deal, since reliable 3's beats reliable 2's inside every day!
IOWA had a piss poor shooting effort vs UCONN, including Clark! They average 11 3's a game, although against the best team in the nation I suspect we should trim those expectations a little. Even so, I am expecting a better shooting effort (law of averages at play) However inside 6'7" Cardoso is a monster to guard. She'll rack'em up once again and defensively she presents Iowa a challenge they didn't face against LSU or UCONN. Once the get her the ball in the low-post she scores a very high percentage AND DRAWS FOULS! Iowa has only one starter over 6'0 guard Caitlin and that's 6'2" Stuelke.
SC will start 6'7" Cardoso and 6'3" Watkins and both are GOOD! But they have a 6'3" Feagin and a 6'2" Kitts - both of whom do rotate in and can hold their own defensively at least to give Cardoso and Watkins a breather.
IOWA can only counter with Stuelke (6'2") Also GOOD!!, but it's just her, and if she gets in foul trouble against THAT lineup, they will put in O'Grady but she's no force to be reckoned with, so it's over for IOWA almost for certain. They will be forced to rely too heavily on CLARK and perimeter shooting - and SC has a terrific defense! Gamecocks are undefeated and #1 for a reason!!
Yes, Caitlin and Iowa are like the feel good story of the tourny,
...but SC is the better team - with a stronger bench! - and the fav line is right smack dab where it should be, imho.
If IOWA wins it would be an upset for sure. But it *could* happen *IF* their 3's are hitting at a high rate - say 45% on high volume --- and their lone center Stuelke has another GREAT game like she did vs UCONN. Clark will definitely rebound from a substandard performance! But it's the others from the arc that could be a concern. IOWA knows they escaped with a close win. I expect their mindset to be more determined and more intense....should be in better shape for this challenge and commit far fewer turnovers -- and if their 3's are hitting, look out SC! But fouls (or injuries) can flip a game so as usual I am going to "wait-n-see" for an ingame opp on either side....
I have no significant leans on the final Sunday, but if SC gets down real early and the line changes to give SC points, I'll likely grab those almost for sure and maybe look for a shot at a middle later...
line has ticked up to 7 pts does that change anything ?
@KellyM_1964
No. One point no diff.
This is a wait-n-see for me. Fouls and shooting are a big concern and I don't want to place a bet only to find the star is hit with 3 quick fouls and has to sit. Or an injury.
BoL with your bets today! 
I agree, and GOOD FOR THEM! This is exciting stuff too just like the men's games. Those last two IOWA games were fun to watch!
Watch the foul situation closely today for clues to grabbing some ingame bets, as well as hits from the arc!
WOW! 11 point IOWA lead down to 1 pt now...
Mid 2Q and now SC up 2, 36 - 34... 
.....SC is up to -7.5 fav now
helluva game already !!
2024 WNCAA: 56 - 21 +37.65u (31 - 9 *Best Bets)
Those last two IOWA games were fun to watch! Watch the foul situation closely today for clues to grabbing some ingame bets, as well as hits from the arc! WOW! 11 point IOWA lead down to 1 pt now...
Mid 2Q and now SC up 2, 36 - 34... .....SC is up to -7.5 fav now
helluva game already !!
SC 49 -46 at HT.... and CLARK has got to be really bummed at herself for allowing the steal to end the half with a SC layup...
IOWA was up 11 pts a couple times in first Q, and finished the half down 3.... 
Fubah's HT boxscore metrics/analysis...
- Boards? SC has picked it up from 1Q and are now DOMINATING!
- FOULS?? NOT a concern at this pint for either team....UNLESS Affolter for IOWA draws a 3rd early 2H OR Johnson (SC) draws her 3rd early 2H
- 3's ?? NSD....both teams hitting! But that is more of a concern for IOWA if SC owns the paint and is also hitting near 50% from the arc!!
- FT? Big edge here for IOWA in both drawing lots of shooting fouls and hitting at 90%!! Such things are a BIG EDGE in the final minute!!
- SHOOTING//Offense? SC gained 12 more tries and hit 6 for a large edge from the floor, while they game is not out of reach for IOWA due to getting so many free throws....otherwise IOWA would be trailing HUGE!!!
SC leading by 3, LINE up to SC -7.5 and -450 ML
Edge to SC for SU win...
Now 11 pt lead at timeout.....68 - 57.....SC hitting 50% on high volume from the ARC!!!
Like I said before, they WILL own the paint but if they also hit from 3 land, it's all over!
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