The Academy Awards are the biggest annual non-sports betting market in the gambling industry and with the nominations for the 2020 Oscars announced, the odds were quick to follow.
If the only thing you know about the Golden Globes Awards ceremony last week was that Ricky Gervais roasted the entire room, here's a recap: Quentin Tarantino's Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won for Best Screenplay and Musical/Comedy while 1917 and its director Sam Mendes claimed the awards for Best Drama and Best Director. In the individual categories, Joaquin Phoenix and Renee Zellweger took home awards for Best Actor and Best Actress.
While there is no direct connection between the Golden Globes and the Academy Awards, the Globes can indirectly help influence Oscars voters as well as gauge momentum for some of the favorites. It's little surprise that all the big winners at the Globes are the betting favorites for the Oscars.
With the Screen Actor's Guild Awards being given out on January 19, these odds will likely shift next week. So if you like some of the value on these wagers jump on them now before the Academy Awards show gets underway on February 9 at 8:00 p.m. ET.
BEST PICTURE
Once Upon A Time in Hollywood +150
1917 +225
Parasite +400
Joker +800
The Irishman +1200
Marriage Story +2500
Jojo Rabbit +4000
Little Women +6600
Ford v Ferrari +10000
THE FAVORITES
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+150)
Quentin Tarantino's latest film is an homage to the Golden Age of Hollywood combined with his usual artistic license with history. It's just as fun and enjoyable as many of Tarantino's most recent movies (maybe forgetting The Hateful Eight) and features some terrific performances from current Hollywood icons and previous Tarantino leading men, Brad Pitt and Leonardo DiCaprio.
There's great dialogue, tight action scenes and some of the best tension building moments in recent movie history (the part where Pitt's character arrives at Spahn Ranch manages to pack as much tension as the most chilling of horror movies).
Tarantino has twice won for most orginal screenplay (Djano Unchained in 2013 and Pulp Fiction in 1995) but has never won for best picture. In an era of cinema filled with remakes, sequels, true stories, and movies based on books, oddsmakers think that a Tarantino film might be long overdue.
1917 (+225)
Sam Mendes' World War I epic took home the Golden Globe for best picture and enters the new year with plenty of momentum. The cinematography is spectacular and the action gripping, even if the narrative seems a bit predictable and safe at times.
The Academy has a history of awarding war movies as well as films that use innovative techniques, and the way that 1917 was filmed to make it look like one continuous shot is astounding from a technical point of view. 1917 has been nominated for 10 Academy Awards and has good value at +225.
LIVE LONG SHOT
Parasite (+400)
It is notoriously difficult for foreign-language films to win Best Picture with only 11 foreign movies ever nominated for the Oscars biggest award and none winning. Last year, Roma was the betting favorite but lost out to Green Book.
However, one thing that gives Parasite a crucial edge over Roma is that it isn't a Netflix film. Academy Awards voters could be biased against Netflix movies because they don't provide the cinematic experience of the big picture films (which might be affecting the current odds of The Irishman and Marriage Story which had previously received a lot of Oscar hype).
Parasite, on the other hand, earned a respectable $131 million across theatres worldwide and racked up six Oscar nominations. Parasite is a terrific film that plays out almost like Coen Brothers movie, except well...it's South Korean. Bong Joon-ho's thriller is a dark comedy which explores the inherent violence and greed of humanity through a lens of class privilege.
It might be a foreign film but the themes it explores are universal and at +400 it offers great value as a dark horse.
BEST ACTRESS
Renee Zellweger, Judy -600
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story +600
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet +1400
Charlize Theron, Bombshell +1400
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women +2000
THE FAVORITE
Renee Zellweger (-600)
After a six-year hiatus from acting, Renee Zellweger didn't show any signs of rust with her portrayal of Judy Garland in the biopic Judy. Zellweger absolutely transformed herself for the role; not just physicially to look more like Garland (apparently involving two hours of makeup prosthetics every day), but also by mimicking her mannerisms and singing ability.
That said, as a movie Judy didn't stand out, garnering mixed reviews, few accolades and making just $24 million domestically (which is roughly what MLB pitcher Jordan Zimmermann earned this year going 1-13 with the Detroit Tigers).
Zellweger's performance is incredible but it might not be enough in what was an otherwise unremarkable film. Keep in mind that Glenn Close was a big -500 favourite for this award just after the SAGs last year but eventually lost out to Oivia Coleman.
LIVE LONG SHOT
Saoirse Ronan (+2000)
Little Women is proof that some stories can stand the test of time. I was less than happy when I was to read the Louisa May Alcott novel for my high school English class but the latest screen adaption is worth watching.
The movie features some impressive performances led by the 25-year-old Ronan as the conflicted Jo March. Ronan might be young but she's no stranger to big-screen audiences having received an Academy Award nomination for Best Supporting Actress when she was 13-years-old for Atonement as well as nominations for Best Actress for Brooklyn (2016) and Ladybird (2018). She has to win eventually (she's simply too talented not to) and I think this field is a lot more open than oddsmakers realize.
BEST ACTOR
Joaquin Phoenix, The Joker -1200
Adam Driver, Marriage Story +600
Antonio Banderas, Pain And Glory +3300
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood +4000
Jonathan Price, The Two Popes +5000
THE FAVORITE
Joaquin Phoenix (-1200)
Joker was many things to many people. Some hailed it as the best movie in years, a critique of society and how we treat mental illness. Others thought it was trying too hard to be relevent and shocking at the same time; that it exploited mental illness while celebrating a murderer. Joker may have been one of the most polarizing movies of the year (we see you Jojo Rabbit) but almost everyone agreed that Joaquin Phoenix's performance as the Batman villain was absolutely mesmerizing.
Phoenix had a lot to live up to with Heath Ledger's portrayal of the Joker in The Dark Knight (not to mention my personal favorite the Jack Nicholson version), but this Joker was more than a comic book character. Phoenix made the role his own and was equal parts vulnerable and terrifying. He will likely take this award but at -1200 there is very little value betting on him.
LIVE LONG SHOT
Adam Driver (+600)
It might be weird to consider the actor with the second-best odds a "long shot" but when the front-runner is that far ahead of the pack it leaves the No. 2 guy with great value. Driver might be a young actor but he brings a hard edge along with a sensitive side to his roles.
If you only know him as Kylo Ren you're missing out on a terrific talent who was deservedly nominated for best supporting actor for his role in BlackKKKlansmann last year. The Academy might be reluctant to give the best picture award to a Netflix movie but they might be more willing to give it to an actor who starred in one, especially a rising star like Driver.
If there is a big upset for this award, Driver (and his bettors) could benefit.
