The Panthers and Desmond Reid rank 10th in EPA/rush, despite sitting 56th in success rate. But they’re facing a Louisville defense ranked 70th in success rate against the run, 72nd in EPA/rush, and 77th in early down EPA/play. More importantly, the Louisville defense has been allowing big plays throughout the season. This is especially true in the passing game, with teams posting a 1.63 EPA on successful passes. Louisville have allowed 14 completions of 30+ yards, the second-most of any team in ACC play, and their 10 throws allowed of 40+ yards are the most allowed to conference opponents.
It's hard to trust Louisville to put together a complete effort for 60 minutes and cover a touchdown-plus spread against anyone in the conference, let alone a Pittsburgh team that has been competitive with the best in the ACC. Louisville ranks 72nd in the defensive in EPA per rush. That's not terrible, but it's not good. However, I'd suspect it will be an issue against what has been a Top 10 rushing offense led by Desmond Reid, who is averaging over five yards per carry. His versatile running style also fits the profile of backs that the Cardinals have needed help slowing down. For me, that's enough to make Pittsburgh a play here.