Election Day took place Tuesday and in the middle of the voting frenzy, prediction market apps Kalshi and Polymarket rose to the top of the Apple App Store charts, overtaking major platforms like TikTok and Instagram.
In line with a recent prediction from Kalshi’s CEO Tarek Mansour, the app reached the No. 1 spot, while Polymarket secured second on the list of the most downloaded free apps.
GM. #1 in the App Store
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) November 5, 2024
Anything important happening today? pic.twitter.com/KC6eyeQMMj
“The demand curve is truly exponential,” Mansour said last week after Kalshi took the top spot in the App Store’s “Finance” category. "I think we're gunning for No. 1 on the App Store by Election Day.”
By Tuesday afternoon, more than $4 billion had been bet on Polymarket’s presidential election contracts, with Kalshi seeing more than $500 million in bets. However, Polymarket had a head start on Kalshi, as it wasn't until early October when a federal judge cleared Kalshi to launch election betting contracts in the States.
There's an argument to be made that the pre-election betting odds and Tuesday night's results form the case for legalizing election betting in the U.S.
About the apps
New York-based prediction market Kalshi operates in the U.S. after a court ruling last month lifted a ban by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The commission continues fighting against the platform and is appealing the court's decision. The CFTC recently announced that it would take on the unofficial role of “elections cop” during this year’s presidential race.
“While we have this ongoing legal challenge, we will allow them, and we’re going to do what we can to protect the integrity of the markets,” commented agency chairman Rostin Benham.
Meanwhile, Polymarket, also headquartered in New York, is only available to international bettors as an unregulated platform that operates using cryptocurrency. The site is banned from operating in the U.S. and recently began conducting extra checks to ensure spenders are located outside of the country. Despite being banned, recent reports revealed that the company has paid U.S.-based social media influencers to promote election betting, with hashtags like #PolymarketPartner and #PMPartner appearing in sponsored Instagram posts.
Trump comes out on top
As of the morning after the election, both Kalshi and Polymarket gave Trump a 99% chance of winning. With key battleground states such as North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Georgia in his favor, Trump was ultimately declared the winner. Users holding Trump contracts stand to receive $1 per contract upon settlement, which could be as early as this week for Polymarket users, while Kalshi pays out on Inauguration Day on Jan. 20.
Trump’s victory came despite high-profile endorsements for Harris from celebrities such as Lady Gaga, Rihanna, Leonardo DiCaprio, and former President and First Lady, Barack and Michelle Obama. Stars supporting Trump included Kanye West, Kid Rock, Mel Gibson, and Hulk Hogan.
It’s a good day for some, with the biggest election wagers reaching as high as seven figures. One user wagered $697,348 on Harris to lose via Kalshi, while Polymarket reported a $15.2 million bet on Trump to win.
