USA vs Australia Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Women’s Basketball

While Team USA continues its ridiculous unbeaten streak in Women’s Basketball, teams from Nigeria to Belgium have given them trouble in spots ahead of today’s Semifinal against Australia.

The Opals meanwhile have hit their groove, overcoming shaky group play performances to peak right ahead of their biggest test of the tournament.

My USA vs. Australia predictions detail why I think the oddsmakers are too high on the American side's offense on Friday.

USA vs Australia prediction

My best bet
Team USA team total Under 90.5 (-110)

My analysis

When Australia gave up 26 turnovers to Nigeria in group play, it was fair to wonder if they would make it to the knockout rounds. It was such a disastrous, uncharacteristic performance, that in addition to giving due credit to the Nigerian players and gameplan, it called into question just how much of a run Australia could give Team USA should the time come.

While I’m still not sure about their overall chances to cover on Friday, I do think I’ve seen enough from the Australian defense to find value in shorting Team USA’s points total. Team USA has had a strong offensive tournament, but their points per game of 91 somewhat obscures their game-to-game output. It’s buoyed a lot by the 102-point thrashing they gave Japan.

So while Team USA is shooting 58.3% on twos in the tournament, even scoring at that rate, they have only scored more than 88 points once. Japan simply didn’t have the personnel to match up with either A’ja Wilson or Breanna Stewart’s combination of size and skill.

Slowing Team USA’s interior scoring is the only way a team can give themselves a halfway chance of keeping pace. Australia has the personnel to do so. Alanna Smith and Ezi Magbegor are both A+ defenders, and they’re also good matchups for Stewart and A’ja respectively.

Smith is a 6-foot-4, mobile, strong forward defender on the perimeter who can switch and provides great secondary rim protection. She averages over 2 blocks and over a steal per game in the W and is constantly disrupting passing lanes and denying the ball for the Minnesota Lynx.

Ezi is arguably the leader in the clubhouse for Defensive Player of the Year in the W this season, an elite and highly mobile switch big, who can meet A’ja in the paint but also contest her at range.

Australia hasn’t allowed an opponent in this tournament to score even 80 points. They’re fundamentally sound when they don’t turn the ball over, they’re a quality transition defense too. They limited Serbia to just four fast break points.

Australia has enough to make things hard on Team USA in a way few teams do, so I’m happy to go against oddsmakers who are expecting the Americans to have their best offensive outing at the Olympics since the Japan game.

Slowing Stewart

My Breanna Stewart prop: Under 17.5 points (-105)

In part following my best bet logic, I’m once again shorting Stewart’s points prop on Friday. In addition to thinking that Smith is about as good a defensive matchup there is for Stewie among non-American players, there are a couple of others that have me leaning this way. One of them is Stewart’s cold shooting from deep.

Stewart has also been in a shooting slump that has lasted over multiple seasons at this point. Stewie has been a good to elite 3-point shooter throughout her career, but her shot deserted her before the 2023 playoffs, and she’s down to shooting just 22.9% from deep this WNBA season. 

Stewart made two in the game against Nigeria, the only time she’s hit two in this tournament, despite that found money of sorts, she still finished with only 13 points. 

Lastly, it becomes impossible to juggle the minutes on this team if Stewie and A’ja Wilson are playing 25 or more minutes in every game. Being head coach of Team USA is about managing egos and political capital. Keeping everybody happy means being fairly egalitarian with the minutes. I think the trio of quality defensive matchup, ongoing shooting slump, and potentially decreased opportunity is enough to find value at Under 17.5 points.

USA vs Australia same-game parlay (SGP)

When Dianna Taurasi didn’t start the second half against Germany, it appeared that further changes would be coming to the American rotation. And indeed, there was, but instead of going with Sabrina Ionescu, who started over DT in that half, Jackie Young got the nod after playing a brilliant game down the stretch.

Young was pretty anonymous through the first two games of the tournament but has since had a 7-13 19-point game against Germany, and followed that up with a 6-10 15-point performance as the starting shooting guard against Nigeria.

Young is somewhat perfectly positioned to excel in this role, as it’s not all that different from her WNBA experience. Young is a star herself, and one who is only improving, but she’s been playing with — and fitting in around — other superstars her entire career. That two of those superstars, A’ja and Chelsea Gray, are also in this starting group only solidifies the point.

Young is a three-level scorer and a terrific threat without the ball. Now that she’s fought her way into the starting group, I expect she’ll stay there, and it’s hard for me to see her having less than double digits in a game going forward.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

USA vs Australia odds

Odds as of 8-9.

USA vs Australia game info

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