We have a jam-packed 11-game slate of games to look forward to on another busy Saturday in the NHL.
Although there is a ton of value on the board, I see the most in targeting John Carlson, Matthew Knies, and the Toronto Maple Leafs to make noise offensively against very weak defensive opponents.
Let’s break things down further with my NHL props for December 7.
NHL prop picks and best bets for December 7
John Carlson Over 0.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)
Matthew Knies Over 0.5 points (-120 at FanDuel)- Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5 goals (+104 at Pinnacle)
Picks made on 12-7 at 12:30 a.m. ET.
Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: John Carlson Over 0.5 points
John Carlson is having a very nice season as one of the straws that stirs the drink for an impressive Washington Capitals team. As a minute-muncher on the NHL’s highest-scoring offense, Carlson is naturally producing a lot.
The cerebral puck-moving defenseman has 19 points through 26 games, putting him on pace to clear 60 points for just the second time since the 2018-19 season.
Carlson hasn’t amassed these outputs with big ceiling games but rather consistency – especially on the road.
Carlson has a point in nine of 12 road games this season, failing to get the job done against only the Tampa Bay Lightning, Florida Panthers, and Toronto Maple Leafs. Those are three quality, playoff-bound teams.
The Montreal Canadiens don’t fit that criteria. They have won just 10 of 26 games in large part due to an inability to keep the puck out of the net.
They have allowed 3.58 goals per game, which is cause for concern heading into battle with a Capitals team that scores more than four times on average.
They’ve also struggled mightily with discipline of late, spending more time shorthanded than any other team over the last 10 games. An elite power play quarterback like Carlson is more than capable of taking advantage.
Prop bet #2: Matthew Knies Over 0.5 points
Matthew Knies is enjoying arguably the best run of offensive hockey in his young career. He has seven points over the last nine games, one of which he had to leave early due to an injury suffered on a hit by Zach Whitecloud.
He is seeing the best usage imaginable under new head coach Craig Berube. For one, he is riding shotgun on the top line with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.
The former has five points in four games since returning from injury, while Marner has 36 points on the year and is one of the leading producers in the NHL. It’s a good place to be.
But the fun doesn’t end there. Knies also skates on a loaded five-forward power play unit alongside Matthews, Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares – the four best offensive players on the team. Every time Knies touches the ice, he’s surrounded by elite weapons.
That bodes well for his chances of success heading into a game against the Pittsburgh Penguins. They have struggled defensively all season long and things just aren’t getting better, with the Pens ranking near the bottom of the league in almost every key defensive metric over the past 10 games.
Tristan Jarry is also projected to start after Alex Nedeljkovic got the nod in goal Friday night. Jarry is sporting a .884 save percentage on the season and has conceded at least three goals in eight of nine appearances.
This is a great bounce-back spot after a quiet night for the Toronto Maple Leafs offense.
Prop bet #3: Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5 goals
The Maple Leafs have been very resilient this season, very quickly getting back in the win columns following defeat – and doing so convincingly.
They have won six of nine games that have directly followed a loss. Of the six victories, the Maple Leafs scored at least four goals every single time.
What’s impressive is the Maple Leafs have faced a lot of good teams along the way. They put four on the Devils, they put four on the Bruins, they put four on the Capitals, they put five on the Lightning (twice), and they put six on the Jets.
Every single win following a loss featured a big offensive outburst and they were all against teams holding onto playoff spots.
The Maple Leafs tend to rebound very strongly and I expect no different against the Penguins. They rank dead last in goals against per game (3.79) and second to last in shot suppression.
Bleeding shots and chances is clearly not a recipe for success, particularly when the goaltending is bad. This Maple Leafs attack should have a field day.
NHL odds today
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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