The defending champs head to Rogers Place at the perfect time for a Stanley Cup rematch because the Edmonton Oilers are scorching along a 12-3-1 stretch, and the Florida Panthers have lost two of three to kick off a five-game Pacific Division road trip.
Defense has been the calling card for Edmonton’s surge up the standings, and our Panthers vs. Oilers predictions and NHL picks are calling for a low-scoring result between these two defensively responsible clubs.
Oilers vs Panthers prediction
My Oilers pick
Under 6 (-105 at BET99)
My Oilers analysis
The Edmonton Oilers are rolling along their 12-3-1 stretch thanks in large part to across-the-board improvement defensively and in goal.
Edmonton has surrendered the fourth-fewest goals per game (2.44) with a second-ranked 88.2 penalty-kill percentage during the heater, and their underlying 2.28 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 are the ninth fewest.
For comparison, the Oil allowed the 11th-most goals per game (3.21) with a league-low 59.5 PK% while also surrendering 2.42 expected goals per 60 at 5-on-5.
In net, No. 1 Stuart Skinner and backup Calvin Pickard have combined for a seventh-ranked .907 team save percentage, and Skinner has been particularly dialed in recently. The Edmonton starter has won five of his past six starts with a sterling .942 SV%, 1.68 GAA, and 1.28 goals saved above average per 60. Each of those three metrics place Skinner tops in the league during the stretch.
Of course, suffocating defense was part and parcel during last spring’s Stanley Cup run for the Florida Panthers, and they’ve picked up right where they’ve left off this season.
Florida has surrendered the third-fewest expected goals per 60 (2.15) with a second-ranked 54.5 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5, and the Cats also sport a solid, 10th-ranked 81.3 PK%.
Finally, while Florida No. 1 Sergei Bobrovsky hasn’t been particularly sharp this season (.892 SV% and 2.87 GAA), he’s a big-game player with a proven track record of upping his play when needed. I'm anticipating Monday’s Stanley Cup Finals rematch to check the big-game box for Goalie Bob.
Oilers vs Panthers same-game parlay (SGP)
Oilers moneyline
Under 6
Leon Draisaitl Over 2.5 shots
The Panthers have been shut out in consecutive games by the Canucks and Flames, and they only scored once during their 2-1 shootout win over the Kraken to kick-start this western road swing.
Florida obviously has the offensive talent and isn’t going to continue struggling to score forever, but this is definitely a tough spot for the Cats to heat up offensively, as highlighted. Additionally, the last thing head coach Paul Maurice will want to see is this turning into a track meet. I anticipate Florida paying even more attention to defensive responsibilities and further limiting their offensive opportunities tonight.
Edmonton draws the Cats at an ideal time to put another tick in the win column. Turning to Leon Draisaitl, he’s recorded 3+ shots in 18 of 30 games this season and 11 of 16 during Edmonton’s heater. Additionally, his 6.94 shots and 13.27 attempts per 60 have climbed to respective 9.53 and 15.36 marks over the past 16 contests.
It’s clear there’s a concentrated effort to put more pucks on net from Draisaitl, and I also think we’re landing a great number with this leg because Florida allows the sixth-fewest shots per game. That’s a warning sign for the majority of players in the league, but Draisaitl is in the 95th percentile for offensive zone time at even strength, 94th percentile for shots on goal, and sports an elite 59.7 CF% at 5-on-5.
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Oilers vs Panthers odds
Oilers vs Panthers live odds
Oilers vs Panthers opening odds
- Puck line: Edmonton -1.5 (+190) | Florida +1.5 (-230)
- Moneyline: Edmonton -135 | Florida +115
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Odds courtesy of BET99.
Oilers vs Panthers trend
The Oilers have cashed the Under in 58 of their last 110 games (+9.35 units / 8% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Panthers.
How to watch Oilers vs Panthers
| Location: | Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Monday, 12-16-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Prime |
Oilers vs Panthers latest injuries
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