We’ve got a big-time Eastern Conference showdown tonight when the Pittsburgh Penguins host the Toronto Maple Leafs at PPG Paints Arena.
The Leafs have won five of the last six meetings and are favored to win again tonight. However, it’s the Matthew Knies odds I'm eyeing as he’s turned into quite the Penguins killer early in his career.
Find out why in my Maple Leafs predictions and NHL picks below.
Maple Leafs vs Penguins prediction
My Leafs pick
Matthew Knies Over 0.5 points (-120 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
Both the Toronto Maple Leafs and Pittsburgh Penguins are coming off of losses last night to Metro Division foes.
This will be the second meeting this season. Earlier in the year, Toronto beat Pittsburgh 4-2 in its home opener for a third straight win against the Penguins. One commonality in all three of those wins for Toronto is a Matthew Knies goal.
Knies has played the Pens four times in his young career and has managed to light the lamp in every one of those games. Can he do it again? Why not?
The Leafs' 21-year-old winger has been a beacon of consistency this season. He was held off the scoresheet last night despite many quality chances to score, but that was just the second time in the last seven games he didn't record at least one point. In fact, he’s logged a point in 14 of his last 22 games. That’s a 63% cash-out rate, which is quite a bit higher than the 54% implied probability of a -120 odds bet.
A big reason for his breakout over the past few weeks has been an increased role under Craig Berube, who’s giving him more opportunities. He’s getting top-line minutes with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, averaging 18:06 of ice time each night, and is now getting a chance to play in front of the net on the first power-play unit.
Plus, the Penguins have severely struggled to keep pucks out of the net. The team has a league-worst 3.79 GAA and the 27th-ranked team save percentage at .889 through 28 games.
It’s also likely that it’s Tristan Jarry in goal tonight for Pitt, and his numbers are even worse than the team totals. Goals shouldn't be too hard to come by for Toronto, leaving many opportunities for Knies to hit the scoresheet in some capacity.
Maple Leafs vs Penguins same-game parlay (SGP)
Matthew Knies anytime goalscorer
Matthew Knies 2+ shots
John Tavares 2+ shots
We’ll pair our Matthew Knies best bet with an anytime goal tonight. He’s scored in all four meetings against Pittsburgh in his career and ranks second on the Leafs, averaging 5.16 individual high-danger chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Considering the Pens give up the most high-danger chances in the league, Knies should give himself chances to find the back of the net.
I'll stick with Knies and add him to log 2+ shots on goal. He hit this number last night and has registered 2+ shots in three of his last four games since returning to Matthews’ wing.
We’ll finish with John Tavares to record 2+ shots. He’s averaging 3.6 shots per game, has put 2+ on the goalie in six of his last seven games, and has hit this total in seven straight meetings against the Pens.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sports Interaction: Canada’s home for NHL
Looking to bet on some Leafs action? Join Sports Interaction, the best in Canada for new bettors, and get a 125% bonus on your first deposit (up to $250)!
*Not available in Ontario. 19+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Maple Leafs vs Penguins odds
Maple Leafs vs Penguins live odds
Maple Leafs vs Penguins opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto -1.5 (+155) | Pittsburgh +1.5 (-190)
- Moneyline: Toronto -155 | Pittsburgh +130
- Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Maple Leafs vs Penguins trend
The Under is 2-7-1 over the last 10 meetings, and they’ve both combined to go 27-24-3 to the Under this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Penguins.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Penguins
| Location: | PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-7-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC |
Maple Leafs vs Penguins latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
