Capitals vs Stars Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NHL Game

We don’t have a large quantity of matchups on the first NHL slate of the week, but the quality is certainly there. Topping the list is a battle between the Washington Capitals, who lead the NHL in points percentage, and a quality Dallas Stars team that boasts a 12-3 home record.

My Capitals vs. Stars predictions see one of Washington’s dynamic, young forwards building on what’s shaping up to be a career year. Let’s take a closer look at my December 16 NHL picks.

Capitals vs Stars prediction

My best bet
Connor McMichael Over 0.5 points (-110 at Pinnacle)

My analysis
Connor McMichael is enjoying a big breakout campaign for the powerhouse Washington Capitals. He has taken a massive step forward offensively, producing 27 points through 29 games after recording 33 points over an entire season a year ago.

He's consistently made his presence felt, recording a point in a healthy 66% of his appearances this season. I like his chances of hitting the scoresheet once again vs. the Dallas Stars.

For one, he's taken on an even bigger role in the absence of Alex Ovechkin. McMichael averaged 5.1 shot attempts and 18 minutes per game with Ovechkin. Those numbers have spiked to 5.6 attempts and 19 minutes per game without The Great Eight.

McMichael is currently being centered by Dylan Strome and flanked by Taylor Raddysh on the opposite wing. To say those linemates are beneficial for McMichael would be an understatement.

Strome has piled up 37 points in 29 games and is one of the leading point producers in the NHL altogether. Raddysh has a more modest 13 points on the year but his presence has really benefited McMichael at 5-on-5.

McMichael has averaged 22.32 shot attempts and 15.71 scoring chances per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play alongside Raddysh. Those are better outputs than he's generated alongside any other Capitals forward he’s played with even semi-regularly.

With these linemates, McMichael is a big scoring threat at 5-on-5. It’s certainly worth noting Dallas’ 5-on-5 defense has not been great over the past 10 games, ranking 19th in goals against and 24th in shot suppression.

If all else fails, a power-play point could very much be in the cards for McMichael. He leads the Capitals in power-play time on ice, shots, scoring chances, and points since Ovechkin went down.

Capitals vs Stars same-game parlay (SGP)

Connor McMichael Over 0.5 points

Connor McMichael Over 2.5 shots

Dylan Strome Over 0.5 points

+400 at bet365

McMichael has generated only 11 shots on goal over his last five games despite solid shot volume. One reason for that is a low 40% on-target rate, which sticks out like a sore thumb when you consider he hit the net on 58.5% of his shot attempts over 24 games prior.

The volume and usage continue to be there for McMichael, who should benefit from some positive regression sooner rather than later.

Dylan Strome is a very nice correlation play with McMichael. Strome centers McMichael at 5-on-5 as well as on the power play. Leading the Capitals in points, it’s fair to say a lot of the offense runs through Strome. If McMichael is to hit the scoresheet, Strome has a very good chance at having a hand in it.

The Capitals have scored 3.97 goals per game (second-most in the NHL) and are the best road team in the league, owning a 12-2 record to date. They should be able to net a few goals against a Stars team that has sputtered its wheels of late, winning five of its last 10 games and allowing 30 goals in the process.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Capitals vs Stars odds

Capitals vs Stars live odds

Capitals vs Stars opening odds

• Puck line: Washington +1.5 (-188) | Dallas -1.5 (+161)
• Moneyline: Washington +137 | Dallas -155
• Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6

Capitals vs Stars trend

Dylan Strome has points in four consecutive games against the Stars. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs. Stars.

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