If you’ve been in a holiday shopping craze, then you know just what we’re doing with our weekly NFL “bet now, bet later” lines.
We’re beating the crowds to the best of the number with spreads and totals to wager on right away, while also waiting for some extra value to pop up on those lines we want to bet later. It’s all about timing.
Here are our favorite NFL Week 15 spreads and totals to bet now, and the lines where you’ll want to pump the breaks.
Week 15 bet now, bet later picks
- Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers: Bet Now
- Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+11.5): Bet Later
- New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Under 48): Bet Now
- New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (Over 43): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers: Bet Now
An AFC West showdown headlines Thursday Night Football in Week 15, with the Chiefs coming off a thrashing of the rival Raiders. Kansas City opened -3 and the juice quickly ticked up to -118 while other shops tacked on a half-point hook. As of Sunday night, about an hour since opening, there are a handful of Chiefs -3 (-115) on the board.
Kansas City put on a two-way exhibition against Las Vegas, blasting the Silver and Black for 48 points thanks in part to five takeaways. The Chiefs made the most of those extra possessions, racking up 6.5 yards per play and finishing 3 for 4 in the red zone.
Los Angeles walked away with a 37-21 win over the Giants in Week 14 but … allowed 21 points to the Giants. The Chargers continue to get pushed around on the ground, giving up 5.2 yards per carry to New York, and now face a Chiefs attack getting great traction with the rush, ranked sixth in EPA per run over the past three weeks (+0.045) and boasting a 50% success rate on those rushing plays.
After turning pockets inside out with a 2-7 ATS mark in their first nine games, the Chiefs have cashed in for backers in four straight weeks – the longest ATS run for this team since their Super Bowl run in 2019-20. If you’re rolling with Mahomies on Thursday night, grab Kansas City now at -3 and avoid that pesky half-point hook.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+11.5): Bet Later
The Giants come back to East Rutherford after a wild Week 14, which saw offensive prep disrupted due to skill position injuries and COVID. It wasn’t surprising to see New York lose big to the L.A. Chargers. Now, Big Blue is a hefty underdog at home to the rival Cowboys.
Dallas won its second straight game with a shaky victory in Washington, nearly coughing up a 24-0 lead in the second half. The Cowboys looked dominant for most of the day – especially on defense – but never ran away with it despite forcing four turnovers and possessing the football for more than 39 minutes. Dallas finished 1 for 6 in the red zone and Dak Prescott was just 22 for 39 for 201 yards passing, one TD, and two interceptions (and a couple of close calls).
New York made a late fourth-quarter push against the Bolts, had a solid day running (135 yards), and went 3 for 3 in the red zone in Week 14. This trip to Jersey will be the third straight road game for the Cowboys, who could be even bigger favorites if the past two weeks are any indication. Dallas drew late money in Week 13 and Week 14 and moved up two points on game day.
Books opened Dallas -11.5 and that slimmed to -10.5 at some shops with some early play on New York. However, knowing the public pounding coming the way of America’s Team, if you’re not buying into Dem Boys you should wait for more.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Under 48): Bet Now
This total opened as high as 48 points at FanDuel sportsbooks before the Bills-Bucs game wrapped up and lines started to slim, with most opening at 47.5. Some offshore shops were as low as 46.5 with their opening number.
You have two of the top rushing defenses in the NFL butting heads and one of these teams – the Saints – can’t move the ball any other way but on the ground. New Orleans snapped a five-game skid with a win over the Jets, which doesn’t mean too much to oddsmakers. The Saints completed 15 passes for only 141 yards (5.9 yards per attempt) and went a dismal 2 for 5 in the red zone in that victory.
The 30 points scored was the team’s biggest offensive output since Halloween, but 14 of those came in garbage time – something New Orleans has done a lot to inflate its offensive numbers. Not only is this the Saints’ second straight road game but it’s also a revenge spot for Tampa Bay, which lost a 36-27 stunner at New Orleans in Week 8. The Saints rank 28th in EPA per play (-0.132) since that upset win.
The Bucs will have a long week of film study on defense after nearly coughing up a 24-3 lead to Buffalo before pulling out the win in overtime. If you’re betting the Under in this NFC South showdown, do it now.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (Over 43): Bet Later
The Miami Dolphins are hoping a bye week doesn’t cool off their red-hot play this winter. The Fins ride a five-game winning streak into Week 15, and while this dangerous defense has been the catalyst of this late-season surge, the Miami offense has picked up the pace as well.
The Dolphins passing game has been especially improved, ranking 11th in EPA per dropback (+0.107) since Week 9. Tua Tagovailoa has a passer rating of 107.8 over his last three games and has been able to do damage against some tougher stop units during this winning streak, beating New York, Carolina, and Baltimore.
The Jets are not that. New York ranks dead last in EPA allowed per play in the league and just gave up 30 points to a one-dimensional New Orleans offense a week removed from 33 points allowed to Philadelphia and a backup QB.
These divisional foes amassed just 41 points and stayed Under the total in Week 11 but with Gang Green officially out of the postseason and the Dolphins still very much in the playoff hunt, Miami will put its foot to the floor. This total had a lookahead number of 45 and opened as big as 44 points. See if it sinks even more before coming back on the Over.
