The Atlanta Falcons face off against the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football in Week 17. This game will help determine the NFC playoff picture, and a pair of rookie quarterbacks take center stage with Michael Penix Jr. under center for Atlanta and Jayden Daniels leading the home side.
My NFL picks involve a play on both of those QBs, and I'm also betting on a heavy workload for Bijan Robinson. Here are my best free SNF player props for the Falcons vs Commanders on December 29.
Falcons vs Commanders SNF props
Daniels o48.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Penix Jr. u0.5 interceptions (-105 at bet365)- Robinson o18.5 rush attempts (-120 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Falcons vs Commanders SNF props
Prop bet #1: Jayden Daniels Over 48.5 rushing yards
Jayden Daniels is the runaway favorite in Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, spearheading an elite Washington Commanders offense. Daniels is an accurate passer and he's also a dangerous runner who has rushed for 737 yards on 5.8 yards per carry. He leads all quarterbacks with 66 scrambles (20 more than second-place Caleb Williams) and his 42 designed runs are tied for third.
There's a strong chance of heavy rain in this contest, which would nerf the passing production of both teams. That said, Daniels should find room on the ground — especially if defenders have a tough time changing direction due to traction. The rookie pivot has rushed for 65+ yards in three of his last four games, and the Atlanta Falcons sit 25th in the league in defensive rush success rate.
Although the Falcons have been fortunate to face unathletic quarterbacks over the last couple of months, they were burned by Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields earlier in the season. They gave up 57 yards to Fields in their season opener, while Hurts rushed for 85 yards against them in Week 2.
Prop bet #2: Michael Penix Jr. Under 0.5 interceptions
While Michael Penix Jr.'s season debut didn't jump off the page last week, there's reason for optimism.
Penix completed 18-of-27 passes for 202 yards and an interception. However, that pick came off the hands of tight end Kyle Pitts near the goal line. Penix had zero turnover-worthy plays and his receivers dropped three passes, giving him an impressive adjusted completion percentage of 80.8%.
Understandably, Atlanta's receivers weren't on the same page as Penix, as the former Huskie is a southpaw and had been practicing with second-string players for most of the year. That chemistry should be better in his second start, and Zac Robinson will likely lean on the ground game once again to take pressure off his rookie passer.
Washington's defense is 28th in the league with six interceptions and ranks second-last in passes defended (47). Their secondary won't be able to come away with a pick in what should be a low-volume passing game.
Prop bet #3: Bijan Robinson Over 18.5 rush attempts
Bijan Robinson has been in beast mode for the last two months. The sophomore running back has rumbled for more than 85 yards in eight of his last 10 games and has logged at least 22 carries in his last four contests.
With Penix making his first career start last week, the Falcons ran the ball 38 times. Game script was partially the reason, but they were also easing Penix into action, and that should continue in the rookie's first road test.
The Commanders rank 29th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (137.4) and yards allowed per rush attempt (4.9). With rain also a factor, Atlanta will be even more likely to emphasize the run, and given how inefficient backup RB Tyler Allgeier has been lately, that could mean even more carries for Robinson.
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