Don’t put away the shorts and flip-flops just yet.
Week 14 of the NFL schedule sees balmy temperatures across the outdoor games this weekend. Well, at least it’s warm for December.
But with that unseasonable warmth comes wind with some games expected to see gusts above 20 mph, which is when those breezes become troublesome.
If you’re making NFL picks, make sure you look to the skies before getting your action down.
Here’s the NFL Week 14 weather report.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans weather
It’s a warmer day for football in Nashville, with temperatures in the low 50s for this AFC South showdown.
Winds are forecasted for 9 mph with gusts getting up to 13 mph, blowing south from corner to corner at Nissan Stadium. Those breezes shouldn’t play much of a role in how this one plays out unless we see some longer field goal attempts.
There is a chance of showers in the fourth quarter of this contest with storms rolling into the area in the late afternoon.
Tennessee Titans veteran kicker Nick Folks is 6-for-6 on FGAs of 50+ yards, while Jacksonville Jaguars leg Cam Little is 3-for-4 on such attempts.
This total opened at 40.5 points, but with Jacksonville playing without Trevor Lawrence under center, this number has slipped to 39.5 O/U.
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants weather
The forecast for East Rutherford calls for sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts up to 29 mph, blowing west from sideline to sideline at MetLife Stadium. Swirling breezes are always tricky in the northwest corner of the stadium. Temperatures will “feel like” the mid-40s for this 1 p.m. ET kickoff.
The Saints are playing in their first outdoor game in more than a month and going outside for just the second time since October 8.
New Orleans kicker Blake Grupe is 20 for 22 on FGAs so far this season, including a perfect 5 for 5 on kicks of 50-plus yards. His counterpart, Giants leg Graham Gano, is 5 for 6 on FGAs in an injury-plagued season and returned from the IR in Week 11.
This total opened at 40 points but is up to 41 with New York going with Drew Lock at QB1 in Week 14.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins weather
The forecast for Miami Gardens calls for sustained winds of 13 mph, blowing east from corner to corner, with gusts getting up to 22 mph at Hard Rock Stadium.
Those stronger breezes could give the kickers fits on longer attempts and push around deeper passes. However, these two offenses aren’t reliant on big plays.
The Miami Dolphins run a short, quick-hitting passing attack, with Tua Tagovailoa owning the lowest intended air yards per attempt in the league. As for Aaron Rodgers, he’s not pushing the ball downfield much either, with the seventh lowest intender air yards per pass attempt.
Dolphins’ kicker Jason Sanders has been a liability at times, connecting on just 84% of his FGAs this season. Sanders is 10-for-14 on attempts of 40+ yards. The New York Jets are still relying on backup kicker Anders Carlson, who’s stepped up to the challenge. He’s 5-for-5 on FGAs since joining the team in Week 11.
The total has bounced between 44.5 and 45.5 points this week, with notable injuries to defensive starters for both AFC East members.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers weather
The Week 14 matchup between these AFC North foes looks much nicer than their snowy Thursday night meeting in Week 12. Clear skies and temperatures in the mid-40s are on deck for Pittsburgh this Sunday, but we could see some stronger winds.
Sustained breezes of 18 mph will blow SSW from sideline to sideline at Acrisure Stadium, with gusts up to 32 mph. At their maximum speed, these winds could plague long field goal attempts as well as deep downfield throws.
Immediately, we think of Cleveland Browns QB Jameis Winston and his inhibitions hurling the football deep. Winston ranks third in intended air yards per attempt, and swirling gusts may not “deliver him from pick sixes” against this ball-hawking Pittsburgh Steelers secondary.
Pittsburgh’s passing attack has found its stride in the second half of the schedule, with Russell Wilson getting more comfortable throwing past the sticks. He’s 12th in intended air yards per attempt and the Steelers sit second in passing plays of 20 yards or more (45) while Cleveland has allowed the third most “home run” plays entering Week 14.
As for the kicking game, Browns’ leg Dustin Hopkins has been horrendous in 2024. He’s just 16 of 23 on FGAs and 14-for-16 on PATs, including 4-for-8 on kicks of 50+ yards.
Steelers kicker Chris Boswell has been much more reliable, with a 34-for-37 tally on FGAs and a 10-for-12 success rate from 50+.
This total officially opened at 41.5 and has been bet up to 43.5 O/U.
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles weather
Winds will swirl around Lincoln Financial Field this afternoon, with sustained breezes of 16 mph moving west with gusts up to 29 mph, blowing sideline to sideline in Philadelphia. Temperatures will “feel like” the mid-40s.
Both QBs – Bryce Young and Jalen Hurts – sit middle of the road in terms of pushing the ball past the sticks, ranked 13th and 15th respectively in intended air yards per attempt. The Eagles’ rushing attack has a huge edge over the Panthers defense, and could just ground-and-pound their way to the end zone.
As for the kickers, Philadelphia leg Jake Elliott has been inconsistent with a 18-for-23 count on FGAs including going 0 for 4 on FGAs of 50 yards or more. Carolina has the “steady” leg of Eddy Pineiro to lean on. He’s 19 for 22 on FGAs this season but did go just 3 for 5 in the loss to Tampa Bay last week.
The total is at 45 points.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs weather
If the Kansas City Chiefs were hoping for a wind weather edge against their SoCal foes in Week 14, it appears Mother Nature isn’t as easily persuaded as the referees. Temperatures will be in the mid-40s for this Sunday Night Football showdown.
The forecast for Arrowhead Stadium does call for sustained winds of 9 mph blowing SSW from corner to corner, with gusts flirting with 20 mph in the first half before calming in the final 30 minutes. Much like we mentioned in the above breakdowns, longer kicks could get bullied by these breezes.
Kansas City is in a tough spot at kicker. Harrison Butker is on the IR, and backup leg Spencer Shrader is questionable after missing Week 13 with a hamstring injury, leaving Matthew Wright as the only healthy kicker on the roster. He was busy last Friday, making 4 of 5 FGAs, with the miss coming on a 59-yard attempt just before the half.
The Chargers, of course, have “Dicker the Kicker”. Cameron Dicker is 27-for-29 on FGAs with an 8-for-9 count on kicks of 50 yards or more.
This total opened as high as 44.5 and has been trimmed down to 42.5 O/U, with all eyes on Bolts rookie WR Ladd McConkey (game-time decision with a knee injury).
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