NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 14: Don't Be Frightened by Scary Terry

The NFL season is in the home stretch and with it comes a ton of opportunistic prop markets. We’re looking into every market to uncover some of the week’s best side, team, player, and derivative prop bets, doing the heavy lifting so you don’t have to!

We’re adding to our Week 14 card and betting on a tight end with a projected expanded role, fading a Giants’ pass-catcher, sporting a Chuba, and finally hitting the Over on a receiver with one of the league’s best air yard shares.

Without further ado, we bring you our free NFL prop picks for Week 14. 

Latest NFL prop picks

• McLaurin Over 61.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Hubbard Over 13.5 receiving yards (-105)
• Shepard Under 49.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Hooper Over 33.5 receiving yards (-114)

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Saturday

Eat, drink, and be Terry 

The game between Washington and the Cowboys is one of just four games with a total above 47 this week. Dallas’s defense has given up the most yards in football over the last three games as the Saints, Raiders, and Chiefs have totaled 1,284 yards against Jerry’s Boys since Week 11. 

This week, the Cowboys’ vulnerable pass defense will see one of the most underrated quarterbacks and wide receivers in the league as Tyler Heinicke and Terry McLaurin line up in Week 14. Over the last four weeks, Heinicke ranks third in completion percentage (77.3%), eighth in yards per pass (7.4), and second in QB rating behind Mac Jones. He’ll likely look McLaurin’s way early and often, as Logan Thomas is out again, and McLaurin has one of the highest air yard shares in football at 42%.

With few passing options, a game that could go back and forth, and a QB that is as efficient as any signal-caller in the league, Washington should be getting the ball into McLaurin’s hands Sunday.

His 61.5 receiving yard total is a season-low and he's due to bounce back after back-to-back clunkers.

PICK: Terry McLaurin Over 61.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Chuba Chuba

Christian McCaffrey’s season is over and he’s been replaced by rookie running back Chuba Hubbard, who already made five starts in McCaffrey’s earlier absence. The Oklahoma State product averaged a healthy 21 touches for 83 yards in those five starts and gets a great matchup in Week 14.

The Falcons sit in the Bottom 7 in success rate against the run. Opposing running backs are averaging 142 total yards and 1.0 touchdowns per game. Of those 142 total yards, 50 of them come in the passing game as opposing RBs have had plenty of success versus Atlanta. Leonard Fournette had 48 receiving yards in a positive game script last week.

Hubbard saw 18 targets in his five starts and should have a solid floor of three targets Sunday in a game that should have a neutral game script. Cam Newton and PJ Walker threw eight of their 31 passes to RBs last week and Newton checked down to his backs eight more times on 27 passes in Week 12. The QB situation is mirky in Carolina but getting the backfield involved in the passing game should be a simple game plan for a struggling passing attack.

Two starting offensive linemen are out for the Panthers, which has us avoiding his rushing total.

PICK: Chuba Hubbard Over 13.5 receiving yards (-105 at bet365)

Sterling curve

Sterling Shepard is listed as questionable for his game versus the Chargers this Sunday. The often-injured receiver has not played since Week 8. He hasn’t finished two of the five games he’s started this year and will likely be at less than 100 percent in Sunday’s match.

Making things worse for the receiver is the play under center. Mike Glennon will start for the second straight game, after he finished with a 4.2 yards per completion mark and no Giants wide receiver finished with 40 or more receiving yards last week, despite playing from behind for most of the game. 

Shepard was looking good with Daniel Jones earlier in the season but the switch to Glennon could take some time getting used to. Shepard’s receiving total is the highest of any New York pass catcher and worth a fade from us as there are too many variables (health and QB play, mostly) that can turn this outing and return to the lineup into a real disappointment. 

PICK: Sterling Shepard Under 49.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Hooper bowl

Austin Hooper finished with zero catches in a Week 12 game versus the Ravens, but tight ends David Njoku and Harrison Bryant combined for six catches, 85 yards, and a score. This week, Njoku has been ruled out, meaning Hooper’s role should be bigger in Kevin Stefanski’s TE-loving system. 

The Ravens surrender the most targets to tight ends in football, at 9.1 per game. Currently, opposing TEs are averaging 5.8 catches for 67.5 yards per game. 

Hooper leads Cleveland’s tight ends in targets and routes, and should be the No. 2 passing option for Baker Mayfield behind Jarvis Landry. Hooper has the second-lowest TD odds of Cleveland’s pass catchers, which supports our assumption for his role in the passing game this Sunday.

Hooper’s receiving yards total opened at 31.5 yards and has started to move north. A 33.5 is available while some books are sitting at 35.5. It’s an Over for us as Hooper’s usage and matchup are pointing the proverbial prop arrow upwards this weekend.

PICK: Austin Hooper Over 33.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Alvin with the stars

The Saints have been given a lifeline this week with running back Alvin Kamara ready to return. It couldn’t have come at a better time, as New Orleans gets to face a Jets defense that allows the most total yards to opposing running backs in football, averaging 180 total yards allowed per game this year. 

The Jets’ inside linebacker, C.J. Mosley, is in the middle of a terrible campaign that sees him ranked as the sixth-worst linebacker in football. The entire Jets team has been a matchup to exploit in the prop world this year but New York has not seen an RB like Kamara since Jonathan Taylor totaled 200 total yards and two touchdowns in Week 9. 

Kamara could be fed a massive workload on Sunday especially with Taysom Hill's finger issue. It’s unlikely Hill will be looking downfield much as Kamara could rack up big numbers on the ground and in the air. 

With a lack of playmakers, competent QB play, and the best RB matchup in Week 14, Kamara is a near-auto Over for us and we’re taking his total Over yards at 108.5 yards. He practiced without setbacks this week and looks ready to go and pad some late-season stats.

PICK: Alvin Kamara Over 108.5 total yards (-115 at bet365)

Tony Toni Tone

The Dallas Cowboys have allowed an average of 140.7 rushing yards per game over their last three. Taysom Hill had 100 rushing yards last week on 10 carries, Josh Jacobs ran for a season-high 87 yards in Week 12, and the Chiefs had four rushes of 10-plus yards in Week 11. Now, it’s Antonio Gibson’s turn to rack up some rushing yards and his total could be a couple of yards short in the early markets.

Gibson’s rushing total closed at 71.5 yards last week and the Washington running back finished with 88 yards on 23 carries versus Las Vegas. He took 23 of the 25 carries and could be headed for a similar workload with J.D. McKissic still questionable this week with a concussion.

When we see fantasy pundits tag Gibson as a Top-5 running back for Week 14 and then see a rushing total of just 66.5 yards, we apologize for getting excited. Dallas's offense has looked anything but perfect of late and a blowout that would force the Football Team to abandon the run is less probable. This number should close closer to 70 yards.

PICK: Antonio Gibson Over 66.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

King of the Hill

Taysom Hill showed his lack of passing skills last week which was compounded by a finger injury that noticeably affected the signal-caller. However, once the quarterback got his legs involved, he found a ton of success gaining chunks of yards as he finished with over 100 rushing yards in 10 carries — mostly gained in the second half. His rushing total opened last week at a laughable 39.5 yards but was quickly bet up to 45. This week, we’re getting a bigger number but it isn’t big enough in our opinion. 

Hill had four carries of 10-plus yards last week which included a long of 24 yards. Hill’s receiving options outside of Alvin Kamara are getting thin as Deonte Harris is out and Marquez Callaway and Lil’Jordan Humphrey are replacement-level receivers. Hill will have designed runs and could actually play from behind in a game many think 5.5 points are too many points for this Saints team to lay even vs. the Jets.

We’re already on the Kamara Over 108.5 total yards and think there is room for both of these guys to succeed versus New York as they make up the majority of the offense. Kamara might even give Hill a little more room to run as the Jets will likely be keying on the RB. 

Hill is gaining 6.6 yards per carry this season (31 rushes) and has averaged nearly 10 carries per game over his last five starts dating back to last season. Give us the Over 51.5 at Bet365 when other books are as high as 54.5 yards.

PICK: Taysom Hill Over 51.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

Drop-dead Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence has been a disaster and that might be lost on people as nobody wants to subject themselves to watching Jacksonville games. He’s topped 160 yards passing just once in his last five games. He sits 28th in ESPN’s QBR rankings between Jared Goff and Sam Darnold and ranks dead last in EPA per pass in pure dropbacks.

Running back James Robinson only saw eight carries in last week’s loss and both Lawrence and head coach Urban Meyer said he should get more work this week versus the Titans.

Even if Lawrence does have to play catchup, his 58% completion percentage that ranks 33rd in the league isn’t going to sustain offensive drives. His starting wideouts, Marvin Jones and Laquon Treadwell, average 55.6 combined receiving yards per game — yuck.

Lawrence’s yardage total is at 216.5 yards this week which may seem short, but we’re talking about arguably the worst passing QB in football right now who’s total closed at 216.5 yards in his previous game. We’re joining in the masses and fading the rookie QB who could be doing more handing off than passing.

PICK: Trevor Lawrence Under 216.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Season to date: 89-84 + +2.75 units (Risking to win 1 unit per play)

NFL Week 14 prop betting card

• Terry McLaurin Over 61.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
• Chuba Hubbard Over 13.5 receiving yards (-105 at bet365)
• Sterling Shepard Under 49.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
• Austin Hooper Over 33.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)

• Alvin Kamara Over 108.5 total yards (-115 at bet365)
• Antonio Gibson Over 66.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
• Taysom Hill Over 51.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
• Trevor Lawrence Under 216.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

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