NFL Week 18 Survivor Picks: Playing it Safe With the Bills

If you’re reading this NFL Week 18 survivor picks piece with an entry still alive in your respective pool, congrats. To steal a line from Captain Kirk, you’ve boldly gone where no survivor player has gone before: Week 18.

The 2021-22 NFL season was my first foray back into the whacky world of survivor pools in more than a decade, and it came with plenty of hard – yet valuable – lessons, especially after our entry in the Circa Sportsbook Survivor Pool Contest went tits up in Week 1.

Here are some of those lessons that I will take into next season, should they actually let me do this weekly article again:

• Don’t get cute. Stick with the bigger favorites until you can’t.

• Don’t take the most popular pick/biggest favorite. Let those upsets thin the herd.

• You can bank on “bad” teams over really bad teams late in the season.

• Wait until late. I had to submit these on Thursdays. A lot changes before Sunday.

So once more into the fray my friends, with dreams of survivor pool riches helping us pay off that heaping pile of holiday bills. Good luck in Week 18 and thanks for reading. 

My pick: Minnesota Vikings

To quote the mad Titan Thanos, “You could not live with your own failure. Where did that bring you? Back to me.”

We started this wild survivor pool voyage with a losing pick on Minnesota way back in Week 1, with the Vikings losing in overtime at Cincinnati. Hopefully, you avoided that shit advice and still have Minnesota among the remaining options in your respective pool.

The Vikings are home to Chicago in the finale with head coach Mike Zimmer shooting down any chance of kicking the tires on backup talents like Kellen Mond, while getting Kirk Cousins back under center in Week 18. Zimmer’s seat is getting hot after another disappointing year, and he won’t give the offseason hot stove any fuel by losing this last game.

The Bears, on the other hand, have a possible quarterback question in the finale (only seems fitting to end the season the same way they came in) with Justin Fields in COVID protocol. There’s a shot he clears and plays instead of whatever Andy Dalton/Nick Foles two-headed beast Matt Nagy throws out there. 

Minnesota boasts a win percentage of 71.43% and ranks out as the fifth-most popular survivor pick for Week 18, with just over seven percent of poolies sporting the Viking helmet in the final week of play.

Safest pick: Buffalo Bills

The Bills are among a number of large favorites in Week 18, currently topping the charts with an implied win probability of 92.31% for Sunday’s home game with the New York Jets. 

Buffalo can lock up the AFC East title with a victory over New York and earn the No. 4 spot in the conference, getting them a home date for the Wild Card Round. More than likely, the Bills come out blasting as they attempt to build a big lead and then rest starters in the second half.

For those stingy pool players who strategized to have Buffalo as their last go-to: we salute you. It’s a rarity in Week 18, which shows in the pick percentages for this final slate. Less than six percent of survivor picks are backing Buffalo this Sunday, but everyone wishes they could. 

Here’s a look at the Top 5 favorites, in terms of moneyline odds and implied probability, for Week 18:

Odds above current at time of publish. Check live NFL moneyline odds and use our odds converter to convert any line to implied probability. 

Team to avoid: Washington Football Team

Just like those FedExField guardrails, Washington doesn’t hold much weight for survivor picks in Week 18. The Football Team has nothing to play for in this finale with the New York Giants, and head coach Ron Rivera told the media he will use Week 18 to get some of his bench players and younger talents some regular-season reps.

Washington still holds a win probability of 75.9% for this NFC East matchup and New York hasn’t shown up in weeks, with the locker room bailing on head coach Joe Judge – especially after his tirade following last week’s loss to Chicago. That said, do you want your survivor pool fate tied to a bunch of second and third-stringers in the second half of Sunday’s game?

It looks like a lot of poolies don’t have a better option, with Washington garnering nearly 14% of picks for Week 18 – second-most behind Tennessee. If my pool purse is on the line, I’m not opting with the WFT if I can help it.

2021 survivor pool pick results

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