Though October 31 is still more than two weeks out, I find myself in the Halloween sweet spot.
My younger kids are prime trick-or-treat age, which means fun costumes, jack-o-lanterns and the always tasty “candy tax” rolled out by parents everywhere.
My older boy, however, is beyond the innocence of the holiday. He’s more into the macabre of Halloween, which means introducing him to classic horror movies all month, giving me both the sweet and sour sides of All Hallows Eve.
And that’s where I gain inspiration for my Week 6 NFL Underdogs picks, handing out some point spread pups that fall in line with the tried-and-true tropes of scary movies. Follow along… IF YOU DARE!
NFL Underdogs Week 6 picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Los Angeles Chargers (+3) at Baltimore Ravens pick
This AFC affair is setting up like a real psychological thriller, in the same vein as “The Sixth Sense” or “Shutter Island”. You think you know what’s happening, but in the final act, it’s revealed you don’t know shit and reality is flipped on its ear.
The Ravens run the football, right? No team in the NFL has stomped a path through its opposition like Baltimore, which took that ground-and-pound approach to the next level under OC Greg Roman, with dual-threat god Lamar Jackson headlining the attack.
For 43 straight games, the Ravens topped the century mark in rushing yards, until last Monday’s overtime win against Indianapolis. And, if we’re being honest, Baltimore’s streak should have stopped at 42, but John Harbaugh is an asshole and picked up five yards on a QB keeper instead of taking a knee at the end of Week 5’s win over Denver.
Running the football is how you beat the Bolts, or at least it is if you’re not the Cleveland Browns. They marched for 230 yards on 35 carries versus Los Angeles last week, chewing up the turf and almost 36:30 of possession. Yet, somehow, Cleveland allowed nearly 500 yards and 47 points to a Chargers offense that touched the football for just 23:32.
The bad-luck Browns aside, it appears the blueprint has been built for Baltimore to defeat L.A. in Week 6. Unfortunately - here comes the twist - the Ravens can’t run. WHAT?! NO WAY!
That’s right, Baltimore is no longer the premier rushing attack in the NFL and, in fact, ranks middle of the road when it comes to running (16th in Run Offense DVOA). Injuries to the team’s running backs and now a rash of ailments across the offensive line have siphoned the gas out of that powerful motor, leaving Baltimore to run for 3.9 yards per carry over its last three games and own an average TOP of just 29:56.
On top of that M. Night Shyamalan-like curveball, the Ravens have been bogged down in slow starts and can’t afford to fall behind early to a mighty Chargers offense. Los Angeles has figured out its red-zone woes and ranks third in EPA per play (+0.226) over the past three games. An early hole for Lamar & Co. would leave Baltimore to abandon the run altogether.
PICK: L.A. Chargers +3 (-115)
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+5.5) pick
We’ve all seen this horror movie before. The big bad monster invades the home of the unsuspecting victim and slashes its way to a bloody finish. That cookie-cutter plot has pretty much played out in Aaron Rogers’ past visits to Soldier Field, with the Packers owning an 11-3 SU and ATS record in Chicago since 2008.
But instead of the rinse-and-repeat premises of horror pillars like “Halloween” or “Friday the 13th”, the script for this Week 6 NFC North matchup is going to take a sudden left turn, much like genre-exploding flicks “Cabin in the Woods” and “Evil Dead 2”. Just when you think you’re locked into the same old, same old, the Bears deliver a quarterback sack that leaves you foggy on all fours trying to find your mouthguard in the grass.
For a team that’s 3-2, the gloom and doom in the Windy City seems a little unnecessary. The Bears have won two in a row and three of their last four (3-1 ATS). They enter Week 6 returning to their identity as a hard-nosed stop unit, sitting No. 5 in DVOA at Football Outsiders and boasting a -0.035 EPA per play (seventh-lowest) on defense.
Like the heroine fighting back against the relentless killer or Ash strapping that chainsaw to his severed stump, the Chicago pass rush is going after Rodgers this Sunday. The Bears lead the league with 18 sacks and have used those to create chaos across the field, forcing seven takeaways (four interceptions), despite blitzing on just 15.7 percent of dropbacks.
Green Bay is more vulnerable than its 4-1 record would lead you to believe. After a Week 1 disaster in Jacksonville versus the Saints, the Packers trailed Detroit at the half in Week 2, barely escaped San Francisco in Week 3, had bettors sweating the fourth quarter versus Pittsburgh in Week 4, and the less we say about Week 5, the better.
On top of that, this trip to Chicago is the second straight road game for the Cheeseheads, their third in four weeks, and their fourth travel game in the opening six outings of the schedule. As an added kick in the pants, the Packers are among the most popular picks on the board, drumming up more than 80 percent of the ticket count and handle at some books in Week 6.
Seems like a perfect spot to go against convention and finally stick it to the bad guys. Gimme the points with the Bears. Groovy.
PICK: Chicago +5.5 (-110)
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (+6) pick
For our final Week 6 point spread pick, we pay homage to a classic horror movie cliché: the jump scare.
This sudden shock is sometimes set up by making the audience feel like they’re safe and out of danger, often coming after the villain is seemingly vanquished. Then, just as you let your guard down - REEEEEEEH! - Carrie's bloody hand comes ripping out of the grave or Jason pops out of the waters of Crystal Lake, dragging poor Alice from her canoe.
A bet on the Bills feels pretty safe right about now. Buffalo bounced back from a Week 1 stinker to bully its three following opponents before power bombing the Chiefs through a table in Arrowhead last Sunday night.
However, hiding in the smoke and darkness lay the Titans.
Tennessee, once an AFC title contender, has become somewhat forgettable after a loss to the Jets in Week 4 and a vanilla victory over Jacksonville last weekend. And while a win over the Jaguars isn’t convincing oddsmakers, it did allow this offense to gain much-needed traction after being behind schedule due to OC Arthur Smith’s departure and COVID complications in the summer.
After the Bills’ big revenge spot over Kansas City, it’s easy to see them as the alleviated victim letting out a heavy huff of relief right before the monster roars out of nowhere and does its thing. That monster is Titans RB Derrick Henry, who leads the league with 640 yards rushing and can help this Tennessee defense by grinding out first downs and eating up TOP (Titans third in TOP at 33:23), keeping Josh Allen and the Bills offense on the sideline.
A few more angles that have me taking the points with the jump-scare Titans are the added day of rest - allowing WR Julio Jones, LB Bud Dupree, and safety Amani Hooker to get back on the field - and a Monday nighter in the Music City after Tennessee just played two straight on the road and three of its last four away from home.
Buckle up Bills bettors, for a fright on Monday night.
PICK: Tennessee +6 (-113)
Last week: 1-2 ATS -1.13 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season: 11-4 ATS +5.81 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
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