Both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts come into this divisional game following wins last week. The Titans look like they’ll be hard to catch to win the AFC South crown but the Colts need to beat the Jaguars to maintain any hope.
Read our NFL picks and predictions for the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts for the lowdown on this Week 10 divisional matchup.
Jaguars vs Colts odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Nothing has changed here since opening. The points total remains 47.5 and the Colts continue to sit as 10.5-point favorites. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Jaguars vs Colts picks
Picks made on 11/11/2021 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Jaguars vs Colts game info
• Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
• Date: Sunday, November 14, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Jaguars at Colts betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Jaguars: Tre Herndon CB (Out), Jacob Hollister TE (Out), AJ Cann OL (Out), DJ Chark WR (Out), Brandon Linder OL (Out), Travis Etienne Jr RB (Out).
Colts: Marlon Mack RB (Out), Xavier Rhodes CB (Out), Rodrigo Blankenship K (Out), Sam Tevi T (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Colts are 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Colts.
Jaguars vs Colts predictions
Colts -10.5 (-110)
The Jaguars won their second game of the season last week as they completed this season’s biggest upset against the Buffalo Bills, defeating them 9-6. It wasn’t the most convincing victory ever with the Jaguars offense sputtering at times. Stopping Josh Allen and the Bills from scoring is impressive though and the Colts need to be aware of the dangers that they possess.
The Colts beat the Jets by 15 points and have won three of their last four. After a tough start to the season which was punctuated by injuries to their offensive line, they are now looking healthier, and the performances are improving. If they can dominate the line of scrimmage on Sunday, then they are clear favorites to pick up the win.
We’ve seen improvement in the Jaguars' defense as the season has progressed and they do look better than they did earlier in the season. The two wins they’ve had in the past three games have largely been based on a defense that is bending and not breaking.
There are eight teams in the NFL who allow more points per game than the Jaguars but they’re only four spots higher than the Colts who, at least on paper, have a better defense. Weighted DVOA tells a different story though. The Jaguars are 27th in the league when that metric is taken into account whereas the Colts are 11th, which highlights the very strong schedule that they’ve seen so far.
It’s the Jaguars' offense that has struggled this year. Trevor Lawrence has shown glimpses of the talents that saw him drafted first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft but the talent around him isn’t great and the offensive line protecting him isn’t able to give him a platform to really deliver. There’s only been one game all season where we’ve seen Lawrence throw for more than one touchdown, a Week 1 loss to the Texans. With the Jags there is a fear that they won’t be able to score enough points to damage the Colts who have averaged 27.2 points per game this season, something which has risen to 34.25 across the past four weeks, coinciding with the team getting healthy.
Only seven teams in the league have averaged more points than the Colts this season and they all have winning records, unlike the Colts. This team isn’t as elite on defense as they were in recent years, but the offense is healthy, and they have the big men up front who can dominate a game and force their will onto the opposition.
The jury is still out on Carson Wentz but he’s looked improved in Indianapolis, throwing for 17 touchdowns this season and with a QBR of 100.1. The real star for this team is Jonathan Taylor, who has a total of nine touchdowns, eight of which have come on the ground. Taylor is the first player since LaDanian Tomlinson in 2006 to record six games in a row with 100+ scrimmage yards and a touchdown. With his talent and the spaces that the offensive line creates for him, it’s hard to stop. Not only will the Colts continue their winning ways against the Jaguars this Sunday, but they’ll cover the double-digit spread too.
Under 47.5 (-110)
The simple facts are that the Jaguars' offense is stagnant. In the past two weeks, they’ve scored just 16 points. Their play calling lacks imagination, and the talent level simply isn’t there, especially after the injury to wideout D.J. Chark.
The other thing we need to remember, as mentioned above, is that the Jaguars' defense is better than people think. They may not be quite good enough to be described as sneaky good yet but it’s heading that way and they are showing improvement each week. They also happen to have the 12th best record in terms of rushing yards allowed per game, so they should be able to do a reasonable job of limiting Taylor’s role in this game.
The trends also point us towards backing the Under. The Under is 7-1 in the Jaguars’ past eight games as an underdog and is 5-1 in their past six as a road ‘dog. The Under is also 5-1 in the Colts’ past six games within the division. It’s all pointing us towards taking the Under here, so we will.
Michael Pittman Jr. Over 63.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Jaguars' defense might be improving each week and they might be pretty good at stopping the run but they’ve still got a poor secondary, something which Michael Pittman Jr. can take full advantage of.
The Colts expected Pittman to become a key member of the team last year after drafting him from USC in the second round. He had a slow start to his career but as this season has progressed, he’s finally emerged as the best receiver on the team. After failing to find the endzone in his first four games in 2021, he’s developed a nose for it recently, scoring five times in the past five games.
He’s already got 658 yards on the year and he should be able to add plenty more on Sunday against the Jaguars who allow an average of 192 yards to wideouts per game. He’s the primary option in the passing game and with Jonathan Taylor likely to come across a good run defense, that should see Pittman targeted heavily. Back the Over here.
