Covers is throwing an entry into the Circa Million Pro Football contest for the 2021 season and Adam Chernoff has been tabbed to make the weekly picks so let's dig right in.
Through 70 picks, I am one point out of the money. To try to gain ground, I submitted bets early and picked KC with the hope of getting a win on a game few were picking due to COVID news. So far, the strategy has paid off. KC won and covered, and the four bets I made on Sunday do not appear to be impacted by COVID - for now.
Season to date: 43-27
Place: T-180 / 4,086
Week 15 picks
- Kansas City -3
- Indianapolis -2
- Buffalo -10.5
- Pittsburgh PK
- San Francisco -9.5
Read on for a quick analysis of each play but watch the video above for more details.
Indianapolis -2
The New England Patriots defense is overrated. In saying that, I don't mean they're a bad defense. I think they are much closer to average than they are Top 5 like currently listed. This season, New England has faced four opponents that rank above average for offensive efficiency. Tampa Bay, Dallas, LA Chargers and Buffalo. The Buccaneers and Bills games were played in rain and wind which hindered the offense from playing a normal game plan. That leaves just two games against above-average offenses all season. Dallas and L.A. Chargers combined for more than 60 points and 900 yards. The Patriots have feasted off weak opponents all season. Wins vs. Davis Mills, Zach Wilson (twice), Sam Darnold, Tennessee without Julio Jones, A.J. Brown and Derek Henry, Atlanta without their top playmakers. It has been a walk. Now, they face the Colts inside a dome where weather will not be an issue. Carson Wentz is having a much better season than the media indicates, and the Patriots can not take away both the pass and run vs the Colts. Indianapolis is elite at stopping the run and will force Mac Jones to beat them in the air. Like the Colts a lot here.
Buffalo -10.5
The Carolina Panthers do not have a quarterback. Sam Darnold was not activated for the game, and neither P.J. Walker nor Cam Newton has been named the starter. Without Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers' offense has completely sputtered out never scoring more than 21 points. Now the Panthers go on the road to face Buffalo in a must-win game with the Bills at the bottom of the market. Consecutive losses to New England and Tampa Bay in high-profile games have the Bills Super Bowl price at the highest point of the season. With playoffs in doubt, Josh Allen is playing after a full practice on Friday and the defense will have their easiest opponent in more than a month. The Bills have pounded bad teams at home with three wins by more than four touchdowns. This will be the fourth.
Pittsburgh PK
I disagree with the Tennessee Titans being favored by any margin on the road against any team that is not from New York, Jacksonville, Houston, Atlanta, Detroit or Carolina. I have the two teams rated dead equal in my rankings and give Pittsburgh more than zero at home. I took the Steelers in the belief that bettors will remember what they saw last. The Steelers lost horribly on Thursday Night Football and the Titans shut out the Jaguars and covered an 11.5-point spread. Joe Haden and T.J. Watt are both set to start which should cause the Titans offense, which has failed to break 4.0 yards per play in two of their last four games, trouble. In many ways, without A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry, the Titans are a preseason offense. Julio Jones is far from 100% and can be taken out of the game by Steelers cover corners.
San Francisco -9.5
I anticipate players in the contest not to run and take the 49ers at this big of a number that is unlikely to move much higher. In fact, I think the Falcons may end up being more selected than San Francisco. This is a major mismatch from the numbers perspective. San Francisco is Top 10 in net yards per play, Top 8 in net success rate and Jimmy Garoppolo quietly ranks sixth in the league for EPA+CPOE. No team through fourteen weeks has exceeded their expected win total based on point differential more than Atlanta. The Falcons are more than two wins above expectation which is shocking considering they rank Bottom 5 in net yards per play and are second-worst in net success rate. They benefitted from a lifeless offense last week facing the Panthers, but a healthy Niners team this week is a big step up in competition. San Francisco has scored more than 30 points in five of their last seven games and gets this Falcons defense that is 26th in defensive efficiency. Atlanta is not going to be able to keep up.
Football Contest Countdown
Before making your football contest picks, you'll want to watch the Covers Football Contest Countdown. Adam Chernoff brings on noted contest player Las Vegas Cris and they walk through the weekly odds — right after Circa releases their lines — with the goal of predicting the top consensus plays of the week. The show streams live on Thursdays at 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT each Thursday on YouTube and Twitter and is available on-demand at any time.
