We're into the home stretch of the NFL season, with Thanksgiving behind us and the calendar now into December.
Week 14 is back to a regular schedule (with only three days of NFL action) and I'm back with a quintet of NFL player props for this Sunday.
I'm continuing to fade bad defenses, along with another WR/RB combo pack, among my best bets and Week 14 props.
NFL Week 14 prop picks
Darnold 250+ pass yards (+100)
Allen o27.5 rush yards (-110)
Ridley long reception o24.5 yards (-115)- Pollard o69.5 rush yards (-110)
Kamara long rush o17.5 yards (-120)
Click on each pick to see full analysis.
NFL prop picks for Week 14
Sam Darnold 250+ passing yards (+100)
Don't let last week fool you: The Atlanta Falcons pass defense is not suddenly good.
It's still, in fact, quite bad, sitting 27th in pressure rate and 22nd in passing yards allowed per game — and the five sacks registered last week were one-third of the team's total sacks for the season... and more an indication of the Los Angeles Chargers' offensive protection than the Falcons suddenly learning how to rush the QB.
So in facing the Minnesota Vikings this Sunday, who are third in the NFL in pass block win rate and have a trio of lethal pass-catchers with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, I'm loving the Over on an alt-total for Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold's passing yards.
His regular line is as low as 242.5 (with standard vig), but FanDuel is offering 250+ at even money. He's averaged 263 passing yards per game over the last seven weeks and again: Ignore Atlanta's 147-yard effort against the Bolts last week; it was an anomaly as the Dirty Birds have allowed 307, 269, 248 (in a game the backup entered midway through), and 330 passing yards in the four games prior.
Industry projections range as high as 297 yards for Darnold on Sunday, who is at his worst when he is under constant pressure — but considering how toothless the Falcons' pass rush is, expect Darnold to be at his best.
Pick: Sam Darnold 250+ passing yards (+100 at FanDuel)
Pick made on 12-5
Josh Allen Over 27.5 rushing yards (-110)
Josh Allen has vaulted himself to the top of the NFL MVP odds conversation as one of the most lethal dual-threat QBs, continually doing his usual Josh Allen things.
He and the Buffalo Bills travel to Los Angeles to face the Rams this Sunday, and I'd expect Allen to again put his legs to use and go Over a modest rushing total. He ran for 50 and 55 yards before registering just 18 last week, albeit in a game that was played in a blizzard and was a blowout, as Allen sat out the fourth quarter.
Four of Allen's six highest rushing totals have come against teams in the top half of the league in pressure rate; the Rams currently rank ninth with a pass rush, led by rookie Jared Verse, that has gotten better as the season has gone along — but pressuring Allen only encourages him to take to the ground, where he's more than comfortable doing damage.
Los Angeles has also allowed mobile QBs to churn out yards on the ground this season: The Rams have faced five of the Top 11 QB rushing leaders, with four of them hitting 27 yards and three going for 39+ yards, and Allen is currently eighth among all signal callers in rushing.
Industry projections put Allen at around 33 rushing yards, and range as high as 36 yards, for Sunday, and considering the Rams offense has enough firepower to keep pace with Buffalo, I'd expect the star QB to be on the field right down to the final drive.
Pick: Josh Allen Over 27.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 12-5
Calvin Ridley longest reception Over 24.5 yards (-115)
Despite a disappointing game last week (catching just two of seven targets for 45 yards), Calvin Ridley did manage a 30-yard catch, continuing his stretch of being one of the league's pre-eminent vertical threats over the middle portion of the season.
Ridley was quite unlucky last week, with 93 receiving yards below expected (per The Athletic), but he's still been one of the most dangerous deep threats over the last seven weeks.
The Tennessee Titans receiver ranks third among all WRs during that span in targets of 20+ air yards, fifth in yards on deep passes, and eighth in average depth of target. He's posted at least one catch of 25+ yards in six of those seven games — and now gets to face one of the worst pass defenses in the league in the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jags have allowed the third-highest completion percentage in the league, the highest average air yards per attempt, and have allowed 56 completions of 20+ yards and 10 completions of 40+ yards, both the most in the NFL.
Jacksonville also runs man-to-man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league and Ridley has destroyed man coverage during his bonanza, sitting second in yards and 10th in yards per route run vs. man.
Titans QB Will Levis isn't great (or even good), but he's got a big arm and isn't afraid to air it out. Against this sad-sack defense, expect Ridley to continue his string of big plays this week.
Pick: Calvin Ridley longest reception Over 24.5 yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Pick made on 12-5
Tony Pollard Over 69.5 rushing yards (-110)
I had success with a WR/RB same-team double-dip last week... so why not try it again this week, considering the Jaguars defense is that bad.
It's been a bit of feast-or-famine for Titans RB Tony Pollard this year, as in the eight games he's received double-digit carries, he's averaged about 91 rushing yards per game and had at least 82 yards six times.
In his other four games? How about 108 combined yards on the ground.
Looking at those duds, however, two were games that Tennessee got blown out, posting their two lowest time of possession totals of the year, while the other two were against the league's No. 1 rush defense and another in the top half of the league.
Jacksonville is 24th in rushing yards per game, having allowed 176 ypg on the ground over its last five contests, and with Mac Jones starting at quarterback, the Jags are no threat to blow the Titans out — with Tennessee favored in the game, it should be protecting a lead (or, at the worst, be in a contested game), which means Pollard should get plenty of rushing attempts.
Titans backup Tyjae Spears returned to the lineup last week, following a concussion-related absence, but did not look great in limited action, so Pollard should comfortably again get an RB1 snap share.
Simply put: This is a bet on a run-positive game script, against a defense that cannot get to the season's end soon enough.
Pick: Tony Pollard Over 69.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 12-5
Alvin Kamara longest rush Over 17.5 yards (-120)
Can I interest you in a fade of the New York Giants defense? Of course I can!
It's not like you have a choice anyway, but why would you say no? The G-Men have been run over by everybody this season, allowing a league-worst 5.1 yards per carry and the second-most yards per game (118.1) to running backs.
I mean, the Cowboys' 31st-ranked ground game just churned out 120+ rushing yards (including a 22, 18, and 17-yard run) vs. New York last week — imagine what Alvin Kamara will do them this Sunday?
The New Orleans Saints RB is averaging his second-most rushing attempts per game and is on track to set a personal best for rushing yards (and possibly record his first 1,000-yard season) this week.
He's inside the Top 10 of all running backs in missed tackles, 10+-yard runs, and designed runs of 15+ yards — plus he has topped this longest run total in three of his last five games.
New York has also allowed a league-leading 17 runs of 20+ yards this season, and with either Drew Lock or Tommy DeVito at QB for the Giants, this could be a lopsided game in the latter stages — meaning more runs for the Saints and more chances for the veteran back to break off a big gain.
Pick: Alvin Kamara longest rush Over 17.5 yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Pick made on 12-6
NFL Week 14 prop betting card
- Sam Darnold 250+ passing yards (+100)
- Josh Allen Over 27.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Calvin Ridley longest reception Over 24.5 yards (-115)
- Tony Pollard Over 69.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Alvin Kamara longest rush Over 17.5 yards (-120)
Last week: 4-2, +1.44 units
Season: 31-34, -7.15 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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