An unorthodox Week 17 in the NFL has already featured two Christmas games on Netflix, along with a showdown in the Windy City on Thursday night.
After going a perfect 5-0 with last week's NFL picks, let's dive into my selections for the weekend slate. My favorite NFL player props 17 kick-off by backing standout rookie running back Bucky Irving.
NFL Week 17 prop picks
Irving o76.5 rush yards (-110)
Smith o48.5 rec yards (-115)
Taylor u6.5 rec yards (-110)
Barkley o111.5 rush yards (-110)
Goff u249.5 pass yards (-110)
Click on each pick to see full analysis.
NFL prop picks for Week 17
Bucky Irving Over 76.5 rushing yards
Although Bucky Irving started the season as Rachaad White's backup, the rookie has made it clear who the head of the table is in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back room.
Entering Week 17, Irving has emerged as the new RB1, averaging 5.2 yards per carry in December. He's set to take on a Carolina Panthers run defense that ranks dead-last against the run, surrendering a whopping 5.1 yards per carry.
Irving saw 15 carries last week despite Tampa Bay trailing by double-digits early on, and a run-heavy game script should be in effect against a Panthers side that gave up 152 yards on 25 attempts to Irving back in Week 13.
Pick: Bucky Irving Over 76.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 12-26
Jonnu Smith Over 48.5 receiving yards
One of 2024's biggest surprises has been the emergence of Jonnu Smith.
After spending several seasons as a backup tight end for various teams, Smith has become one of the league’s top receiving tight ends. Despite logging just a 29% snap share in Week 1, Smith has averaged 67.8% of field time over the past six games.
Sporting a career-high 802 receiving yards and tied for first on the Miami Dolphins in receptions, the 29-year-old has benefited from being Tua Tagovailoa's new security blanket.
Smith has eclipsed 49.5 receiving yards in four of his last six starts and should be Tua’s primary target on many plays against a Cleveland Browns defense that applies pressure on 41% of passing plays.
The Dolphins TE also benefits from contract incentives that will add $400,000 to his paycheck if he finishes with a snap share of 59% or more AND Miami finishes in the Top 20 in points scored and/or net yards, with an additional $400,000 if he reaches 65%.
Pick: Jonnu Smith Over 48.5 receiving yards (-115 at SIA)
Pick made on 12-26
Jonathan Taylor Under 6.5 receiving yards
Jonathan Taylor made sure to erase all memory of his costly fumble against Denver in Week 15, tallying 218 rushing yards in the Indianapolis Colts' latest win over Tennessee.
However, with a rushing O/U of 101.5 ahead of Sunday's matchup against the New York Giants, the value in JT's props market lies elsewhere.
Taylor has quietly been a non-factor as a receiving back this season, ranking dead-last out of 49 qualified running backs in PFF receiver grade. The Colts star has just three catches on four targets over his last five games, including being shut out against the Titans and in Week 12 against Detroit.
With the Colts set to ground and pound the Giants to death and likely send out the combo of Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson once things get ugly, I'm fading Taylor's receiving total on Sunday in the Meadowlands.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor Under 6.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 12-26
Saquon Barkley Over 111.5 rushing yards
Two games remain for Saquon Barkley to eclipse Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record, and the Philadelphia Eagles star is set for a huge day in Week 17.
Only 268 yards separate the running back from making history, and he'll chew up a Dallas Cowboys defense that ranks 30th in rushing yards allowed per game. Surrendering damage at a clip of 4.8 yards per carry, the NFL's leading rusher should especially thrive with leading tackler Eric Kendricks questionable and linebacker DeMario Overshown on IR.
Although an O/U of 111.5 is a steep number, Barkley boasts a league-high 42 rushes of 10+ yards on the season, including a 68-yard touchdown run in last week's loss to Washington.
Pick: Saquon Barkley Over 111.5 rushing yards (-115 at SIA)
Pick made on 12-27
Jared Goff Under 249.5 passing yards
Although the San Francisco 49ers' season has been an unmitigated disaster due to a myriad of injuries, the defending NFC champs remain elite against the pass.
Heading into Monday night's NFC Championship rematch against the Detroit Lions, the 49ers' defense is yielding an average of just 183.3 passing yards per game — the third-best mark in the NFL. Jared Goff has managed to surpass this number in consecutive starts, but an 82-yard strike to Jameson Williams buoyed last week's passing total of 336, and his 400+ yard performance against Buffalo was due to trailing 14-0 right out of the gate.
With Dan Campbell's team still looking to clinch the NFC North and the first seed in the conference, expect them to come out strong and establish an early lead. The Lions will rely on a ground-heavy approach, with Jahmyr Gibbs and Craig Reynolds taking center stage in Santa Clara.
Pick: Jared Goff Under 249.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 12-28
NFL Week 17 prop betting card
- Bucky Irving o76.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Jonnu Smith o48.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Jonathan Taylor u6.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Saquon Barkley o111.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Jared Goff u249.5 passing yards (-110)
Last week: 5-0, +4.55 units
Season: 5-0, +4.55 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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