The horrors of Halloween may be behind us, but sometimes betting on NFL player props can leave you seeing ghosts like 2019 Sam Darnold.
Take last week, for example, where we had a 2-3 week (an improvement on the fortnight prior) but those three losses came in the form of two star players getting hurt midway through the game, and another bet falling short by the hook... of a receiving yards prop.
Woof.
However, there are always positives to be gleaned from painful situations: The process seems good, so we're sticking with it this week, where my best NFL picks feature one of the NFL's hottest receivers to stay scorching in the desert, an RB to stomp on one of the league's worst run defenses, and two of the most electric RBs around to keep continue treating the league like a video game.
Latest NFL prop picks
Barkley long rush o17.5 yards
(-110 at bet365)
Swift o71.5 rush yards
(-110 at BetMGM)
Gibbs long rush o15.5 yards
(-120 at BetMGM)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL prop picks for Week 10
Saquon Barkley longest rush Over 17.5 yards
I'm going with another longest rush prop here, because I very much want to bet on Saquon Barkley odds against this Dallas Cowboys "defense," but this one could get out of hand quickly so his yardage total of 91.5 is a little scary.
However, Saquon's chances of breaking another big run are quite high: Bijan Robinson topped his longest run total last week, Isaac Guerendo went for a 19-yarder the game before, as did David Montgomery and Derrick Henry before that too.
Meanwhile, Saquon is as explosive as anyone, sitting second in the NFL in runs of 20+ yards, first in runs of 10+ yards, fifth in yards after contact, and eighth in missed tackles forced. He's gone Over his longest rush total in six of eight games with the Philadelphia Eagles, and embarrassing Dallas is something Philly would absolutely love to do.
Again, this game could be done by halftime and Barkley could be resting on the bench by the fourth quarter, but that's more than enough time for him to rip off a couple monster runs against his biggest rival.
Pick made on 11-8
D'Andre Swift Over 71.5 rush yards
One-hundred and twenty-eight. Eighty. One-hundred and eighteen. One-hundred and two. Eighty-six. One-hundred and twenty-three.
For the visual learners:
- 126
- 80
- 118
- 102
- 86 (plus a second RB went for 80)
- 123
That is the last six rushing totals for opposing RB1s against the New England Patriots, whose rushing defense is, as the kids now say, "cheeks."
So when I see D'Andre Swift's odds to go Over his rushing total (which is just 71.5 yards), I am all-in.
Let's go back to the ugly math on the Pats: Opposing RB1s are averaging about 106 yards per game (and they're allowing more than 159 rushing yards overall) during these six weeks and New England has allowed the second-most yards per game to RBs overall on the season.
Jerod Mayo's team has been getting trampled and the Chicago Bears lead back is primed to continue that, as he has averaged 18 carries and 87 yards over his last five games, topping this number four times.
Swift has firmly established himself as the RB1, getting 76.5% of all RB carries in this span, and with the combination of quarterback Caleb Williams struggling and forecasted winds of around 16 mph (and gusts up to 28 mph) at Soldier Field around kickoff, there could be an even bigger emphasis on the ground game.
The more work any back can get against the Pats, the better — and Swift should get plenty of action this Sunday.
Pick made on 11-8
Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush Over 15.5 yards
The Detroit Lions have the NFL's best 1-2 running back duo, aptly nicknamed "Sonic and Knuckles."
Aside from the fact that "Sonic the Hedgehog 3" (which first introduced Knuckles) is the best entry in Sega's iconic video game franchise, it's the perfect moniker for the tough, no-nonsense David Montgomery and the incredibly electric Jahmyr Gibbs.
Against the Houston Texans on SNF, I'm looking at Gibbs to again do his best Sonic impression and break off a big run (or a few big runs), which is something he's done all season. The second-year RB has ripped off at least one run of 18+ yards in six of his last seven games (and one 15+ yard run in seven straight), with the eighth-most runs of 10+ yards (17) and third-most designed runs of 15+ yards (10) — plus he has some toughness, sitting inside the Top 20 in total yards after contact.
He's also fifth among all backs in rushing yards over expected (per NFL Next Gen Stats); he's a legit home-run hitter and he gets to run against a Houston Texans defense that allows the ninth-highest rushing yards per attempt and has allowed an opposing RB to post a run of 16+ yards in six of its last seven contests.
Houston has a litany of defensive starters currently on the injury report and a banged-up defense will have no favors done for it against by Lions offense that is one of the most relentless and effective rushing attacks in football.
I'd expect plenty of running from Detroit on Sunday night, with Gibbs curling up into a little blue ball... and then zooming down the field.
Pick made on 11-7
Garrett Wilson Over 66.5 receiving yards
Davante Adams may be the guy who gets all the attention (well, the non-Rodgers attention) for the New York Jets, but Garrett Wilson is the star among the skill position players for Gang Green.
He's been on a tear lately... and should continue his string of big games this Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals.
Wilson has kicked it into high gear over the last five weeks, leading all receivers with an average of eight catches and 12 targets per game, while his 94.4 receiving yards per game is second among all WRs in that span.
He's hit 90+ yards in four of those five games (and 100+ three times), and now faces a Cardinals defense that allows the seventh-most ypg to WR (158.6) and deploys zone coverage at the 11th-highest rate in the league (per PFF) — but is 30th in defensive success rate while in zone.
Wilson has also excelled in attacking zone coverages during this run: He's second in targets, third in catches, and fourth in yards after catch vs. zone since Week 5... but despite the lofty rankings, his longest reception is just 35 yards and his average depth of target is 107th among WRs during this stretch.
Arizona is also 27th in pressure rate and 29th in blitz rate; if it allows Rodgers to sit back and have time to throw, Wilson will get open... and he will turn short catches into big gains. Industry projections sit around 75 yards for the Jets receiver on Sunday, with some models ranging as high as 84 yards.
Pick made on 11-7
Derrick Henry Over 89.5 rush yards
The Baltimore Ravens face AFC North rival Cincinnati Bengals tonight on TNF, which is exactly the type of game that Baltimore acquired Derrick Henry for: A hard-nosed contest, where he can punish an opponent — on a short week — and break their will in the latter stages of the game.
After logging 106 yards on the ground last week, King Henry has rumbled for almost 132 yards per game since Week 3, topping 90 yards in six of those seven contests and going for 130+ yards four times, and faces a Bengals defense that isn't great in defending the run.
The Bengals have held opponents to under 120 rushing yards in three of their last four games, but those matchups came against the No. 17, 28, and 31-ranked rushing attacks. Against good ground games... Cincy has wilted, surrendering 161 yards to the Eagles two weeks ago, 175 yards to these same Ravens a month ago (including 92 yards to Henry), and 153 yards per game in its six games outside those three anomalies.
Cincinnati may also be without DT B.J. Hill, who is questionable after suffering a rib injury last week, an injury that should only get magnified against a Ravens team that calls the most rushing plays per game and is fourth in the league in run block win rate.
Industry projections range as high as 102 yards for Henry tonight and predominantly sit in the 97-yard range, giving added confidence for what should be another big game for the King.
Pick made on 11-6
NFL Week 10 prop betting card
- Derrick Henry Over 89.5 rush yards (-110)
- Garrett Wilson Over 66.5 receiving yards (-114)
- Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush Over 15.5 yards (-120)
- D'Andre Swift Over 71.5 rush yards (-110)
- Saquon Barkley longest rush Over 17.5 yards (-110)
Last week: 2-3, -1.24 units
Season: 21-24, -4.79 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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