You smell that? No, it isn’t Thanksgiving dinner in the oven — it’s the savory aroma of Rivalry Week.
One intriguing side dish of Rivalry Week sees the No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-1) continuing its march toward the College Football Playoffs with a road trip against the USC Trojans (6-5) to close out the regular season.
What are my early leans for the side and total? Read on for my Notre Dame vs. USC predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 30.
Notre Dame vs USC predictions
Early spread lean
USC +7.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Too many points in a rivalry game. Place bet.
OK, so the handicap isn’t that simple — but that line of thinking is certainly a factor. Lincoln Riley’s USC Trojans haven’t lost by more than seven points all year, whereas Marcus Freeman’s Notre Dame Fighting Irish have mostly been beating the snot out of bad teams for three months.
Notre Dame’s metrics are undeniably impressive. The defense leads the nation in EPA per play and is Top 5 in both success rate (third) and explosiveness (fifth), allowing a measly 11.6 ppg. The offense checks in at 12th in EPA per play and averages an efficient 6.7 yards per play led by a dominant rushing attack (third in EPA per rush, first in rushing explosiveness).
Jeremiyah Love has been a game-breaker, averaging an incredible 7.02 yards per rush while notching 11 plays of 22+ yards.
That being said, the Irish have benefited from their ability to create turnovers defensively while avoiding them on the other side of the ball. They’re second in the nation with a +16 turnover differential, a stat notorious for not being sticky from week to week.
The Irish have played two “good” teams capable of at least competing in the trenches: Texas A&M and Louisville. They beat the Aggies by 10 while going +2 in turnover margin and beat Louisville by 7 while being +1 in turnover margin and getting outgained by 115 total yards.
Special teams is an ongoing concern with an Irish, who allowed a blocked field goal for the third time this season in Week 13’s victory over Army.
USC made a great hire in defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who has led a drastic year-over-year improvement. The Trojans lost a few of their best players on that side of the ball due to injury and suffered some letdown performances, but they’ve tightened the screws lately. They’ve held each of their last six opponents below 125 rushing yards, so there’s hope they can at least slow down Notre Dame’s potent ground game enough to keep things within reach.
USC has the better passing attack and might be able to find success on the ground (12th in rushing success rate compared to 64th for ND’s defense). If the Irish’s turnover luck doesn’t carry over to this matchup, or if the special teams miscues continue, this game could suddenly turn out to be much closer than many anticipate by looking at both teams’ respective records.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 51.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
While USC may be able to move the ball offensively better than many of Notre Dame’s opponents, it’s still difficult to expect an offensive explosion considering just how salty the Irish’s stop unit has been.
They rank fourth in total yards allowed per game (273.1) and third in yards per play (4.2). Those are great numbers for any team, let alone one that has been without arguably its best player in Preseason All-American corner Benjamin Morrison, along with a few other contributors in the secondary.
There’s been plenty of consternation over Riley’s play-calling this season. He refuses to feature the ground game (124th in rush rate) despite being tremendously effective when running the ball (12th in rushing success rate).
UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava offers plenty of promise at quarterback, but he also looks lost half the time, is mistake-prone, and averaged 6.3 yards per attempt against UCLA last week. Will he suddenly light up the scoreboard against the nation’s top-ranked secondary in terms of EPA per pass and passing success rate? Doubtful.
On the flip side, observers await to see what Notre Dame looks like when forced to throw the ball with the game on the line. Riley Leonard heads an inconsistent passing attack that ranks 58th in EPA per play and 40th in passing success rate.
Mike Denbrock’s offense doesn’t offer much of a threat vertically (129th in passing success rate), meaning that the more physical and better teams ahead on the schedule (if they do indeed make the CFP) can load the box, cut off big plays on the ground, and force Leonard into uncomfortable situations.
USC lies somewhere in the middle between ND’s lesser opponents and its hypothetically difficult opponents in the CFP (again — only if the Irish do indeed earn a bid). The Trojans are far from elite defensively and have been pushed around at times in Big Ten play. They also had several impact defensive injuries throughout the year, have improved lately — missing just four tackles a week ago — and have one of the better defensive coordinators in the country.
It’s hard to see either offense having a banner day. Notre Dame likely finds enough success on the ground to keep the clock moving and score a few touchdowns, but Lynn’s defense usually cuts off the big gains (29th in explosiveness). USC moves the chains offensive (16th in success rate) but rarely hits big plays (104th in explosiveness) and has a tremendously difficult matchup.
Let’s go with the Under.
Notre Dame vs USC live odds
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