It’s the second Saturday in December, and you know what that means — it’s time for the annual Army-Navy Game.
The Army Black Knights are fresh off their first-ever conference championship after whomping Tulane to capture the AAC title, while Navy is looking to cap a rebound season and is well-rested with two byes in the last three weeks.
See where my early Navy vs. Army predictions and college football picks are leaning for the big game on Saturday, December 14.
Navy vs Army predictions
Early spread lean
Navy +6.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Navy Midshipmen go as quarterback Blake Horvath does. He’s the first Navy quarterback to run for 10 touchdowns and throw for 10 more in over a decade, and his health will be crucial for this Saturday’s game against the Army Black Knights.
Horvath was one of the most productive players in the country through Navy’s first six games, racking up 20 touchdowns. He then injured his thumb and was a shell of himself for a few games in which he played hurt. He was knocked out with back spasms early in the Tulane game and did not return.
The quarterback missed the regular-season finale against ECU following a bye, so he last played a football game nearly a month ago on November 16. Information will be hard to come by for this Navy program, but it would seem as though Horvath was rested in hopes of having him on the field for the biggest game of the year: the Army game.
So, where does that leave us for Saturday’s game, where Army is listed as a 6.5-point favorite?
Army has dominated this season, notching 10 of its 11 victories by multiple scores. Quarterback Bryson Daily has been one of the biggest stars in the sport, racking up 1,480 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns on the ground while adding 877 passing yards and eight scores through the air. The offense has been a machine, ranking fifth in EPA per play and third in success rate.
Here’s the thing — the Army-Navy game is nearly always a defensive slugfest in which scores are hard to come by. Both teams bring the best offense we’ve seen from them, respectively, in quite some time, but possessions will be at a premium between two teams that like to play ball control and keep the clock ticking.
The way these offenses look may have changed slightly, but this game won’t — we’ll still see two option offenses largely keeping the ball on the ground in a hard-fought slugfest. That style of play favors the underdog as it's hard to create a margin in such an environment, so sign me up for Navy +6.5.
The Midshipmen have been clinical offensively, ranking ninth in EPA per play despite dealing with Horvath’s injury for much of the second half of the year. All the attention goes to Army’s improved offense, but Navy’s has been really good, and the Midshipmen have slightly better defensive metrics.
Horvath’s anticipated return would be a huge boost for an offense that thrives on his ability to create with his legs while hitting a few explosives through the air. This game has been decided by one score in eight of the last 10 meetings, and I’m betting on that being the case again on Saturday.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 40.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
For all I said about this one being a hard-fought, defensive slugfest, I’m still buying the Over at such a low total. Allow me to explain.
These teams have been dead set on the Under when playing each other, going 1-17-1 O/U in the last 19 meetings. That being said, the bookmakers were slow to the chase for many of those games, as plenty of them featured totals in the 50s, with one matchup getting up to 64.5.
You won’t see totals like that anymore, but I’m buying the dip. Two years ago saw the first Over in this matchup in nearly two decades, while last year’s meeting pushed at a low total of 28.
One thing that’s changed this year is Navy’s new offensive coordinator, Drew Cronic. The Mercer implant has been a perfect fit, getting the Midshipmen’s rushing game back on track (10th in EPA per rush, ninth in rushing explosiveness) while implementing a big-play passing attack (fourth in passing explosiveness) that keeps defenses honest.
If Horvath is healthy, we should see Cronic’s offense flow. Army ranks 96th in success rate defensively and is prone to getting beat either on the ground (94th in rushing success rate) or in the air (104th in passing success rate).
Navy's been great along the offensive line and holds significant advantages in the trenches, according to the metrics. That includes line yards (18th to Army’s 112th defensively), stuff rate (10th to Army’s 95th), and front-seven havoc (30th to Army’s 95th).
On the flip side, Daily leads a potent offense that won’t be kept off the scoreboard. The Black Knights just eviscerated a stout Tulane defense and have scored 29+ points eight times this season.
The Black Knights should take advantage of a leaky Navy rush defense that checks in at 110th in EPA per rush and 101st in rushing success rate. Daily has been quick to heap praise upon his offensive line, and the big boys in the trenches hold a clear advantage over Navy in line yards (third to Navy’s 115th), stuff rate (first to Navy’s 123rd), and front-seven havoc (second to Navy’s 95th).
Perhaps it’s foolish to bet against such a strong trend toward the Under. Still, I can’t ignore that books were offering ridiculous lines for close to two decades, and that’s no longer the case. Both offenses are the best versions we’ve seen in who knows how long.
Navy vs Army live odds
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